The spatial–temporal variation of poverty determinants

Poverty affects many people worldwide and varies in space and time, although its determinants are geographical factors. This paper presents a case study from Hubei Province, Central China, investigating the spatial and temporal changes in poverty determinants at the county from 2013-2019 and village levels from 2013 to 2017. We investigated the variation in the spatial autocorrelation of poverty incidence at the two levels using global and local Moran's I. We then explored the spatial and temporal variations of poverty determinants using the Lineman, Merenda, and Gold method. We found that the overall spatial autocorrelation gradually mitigated, whereas the local spatial pattern remained unchanged at both levels. Deeply poor areas were concentrated in the western part of Hubei Province and the southwestern part of Yunyang County. The effects of geographical conditions on poverty decreased across the study period, with the R2 value decreasing from 85% to 73% at the county level and from 57% to 38% at the village level. Furthermore, the contribution of natural environmental factors to poverty slightly decreased at both scale levels, whereas the socioeconomic factors had a significantly increased effect on county-level poverty over time. By contrast, the factors that have a major effect on village-level poverty remained stable. The results might indicate that the implementation of various targeted poverty alleviation measures since 2013 have mitigated the restrictions of local geographical factors on poverty alleviation.</p

Assessment of Night-Time Lighting for Global Terrestrial Protected and Wilderness Areas

Protected areas (PAs) play an important role in biodiversity conservation and ecosystem integrity. However, human development has threatened and affected the function and effectiveness of PAs. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) night-time stable light (NTL) data have proven to be an effective indicator of the intensity and change of human-induced urban development over a long time span and at a larger spatial scale. We used the NTL data from 1992 to 2013 to characterize the human-induced urban development and studied the spatial and temporal variation of the NTL of global terrestrial PAs. We selected seven types of PAs defined by the International Union for Conversation of Nature (IUCN), including strict nature reserve (Ia), wilderness area (Ib), national park (II), natural monument or feature (III), habitat/species management area (IV), protected landscape/seascape (V), and protected area with sustainable use of natural resources (VI). We evaluated the NTL digital number (DN) in PAs and their surrounding buffer zones, i.e., 0–1 km, 1–5 km, 5–10 km, 10–25 km, 25–50 km, and 50–100 km. The results revealed the level, growth rate, trend, and distribution pattern of NTL in PAs. Within PAs, areas of types V and Ib had the highest and lowest NTL levels, respectively. In the surrounding 1–100 km buffer zones, type V PAs also had the highest NTL level, but type VI PAs had the lowest NTL level. The NTL level in the areas surrounding PAs was higher than that within PAs. Types Ia and III PAs showed the highest and lowest NTL growth rate from 1992 to 2013, respectively, both inside and outside of PAs. The NTL distributions surrounding the Ib and VI PAs were different from other types. The areas close to Ib and VI boundaries, i.e., in the 0–25 km buffer zones, showed lower NTL levels, for which the highest NTL level was observed within the 25–100 km buffer zone. However, other types of PAs showed the opposite NTL patterns. The NTL level was lower in the distant buffer zones, and the lowest night light was within the 1–25 km buffer zones. Globally, 6.9% of PAs are being affected by NTL. Conditions of wilderness areas, e.g., high latitude regions, Tibetan Plateau, Amazon, and Caribbean, are the least affected by NTL. The PAs in Europe, Asia, and North America are more affected by NTL than South America, Africa, and Oceania

Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease, prominent in China. China’s HFMD data are sparse with a large number of observed zeros across locations and over time. However, no previous studies have considered such a zero-inflated problem on HFMD’s spatiotemporal risk analysis and mapping, not to mention for the entire Mainland China at county level. Monthly county-level HFMD cases data combined with related climate and socioeconomic variables were collected. We developed four models, including spatiotemporal Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models under the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to explore disease spatiotemporal patterns. The results showed that the spatiotemporal ZINB model performed best. Both climate and socioeconomic variables were identified as significant risk factors for increasing HFMD incidence. The relative risk (RR) of HFMD at the local scale showed nonlinear temporal trends and was considerably spatially clustered in Mainland China. The first complete county-level spatiotemporal relative risk maps of HFMD were generated by this study. The new findings provide great potential for national county-level HFMD prevention and control, and the improved spatiotemporal zero-inflated model offers new insights for epidemic data with the zero-inflated problem in environmental epidemiology and public health

Spatial distribution estimation of malaria in northern China and its scenarios in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050

© 2016 The Author(s). Background: Malaria is one of the most severe parasitic diseases in the world. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria and its future scenarios are important issues for malaria control and elimination. Furthermore, sophisticated nonlinear relationships for prediction between malaria incidence and potential variables have not been well constructed in previous research. This study aims to estimate these nonlinear relationships and predict future malaria scenarios in northern China. Methods: Nonlinear relationships between malaria incidence and predictor variables were constructed using a genetic programming (GP) method, to predict the spatial distributions of malaria under climate change scenarios. For this, the examples of monthly average malaria incidence were used in each county of northern China from 2004 to 2010. Among the five variables at county level, precipitation rate and temperature are used for projections, while elevation, water density index, and gross domestic product are held at their present-day values. Results: Average malaria incidence was 0.107 per annum in northern China, with incidence characteristics in significant spatial clustering. A GP-based model fit the relationships with average relative error (ARE) = 8.127 % for training data (R2 = 0.825) and 17.102 % for test data (R2 = 0.532). The fitness of GP results are significantly improved compared with those by generalized additive models (GAM) and linear regressions. With the future precipitation rate and temperature conditions in Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) family B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, spatial distributions and changes in malaria incidences in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 were predicted and mapped. Conclusions: The GP method increases the precision of predicting the spatial distribution of malaria incidence. With the assumption of varied precipitation rate and temperature, and other variables controlled, the relationships between incidence and the varied variables appear sophisticated nonlinearity and spatially differentiation. Using the future fluctuated precipitation and the increased temperature, median malaria incidence in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 would significantly increase that it might increase 19 to 29 % in 2020, but currently China is in the malaria elimination phase, indicating that the effective strategies and actions had been taken. While the mean incidences will not increase even reduce due to the incidence reduction in high-risk regions but the simultaneous expansion of the high-risk areas

A New Method to Estimate Heat Exposure Days and Its Impacts in China

Understanding the spatiotemporal trends of temperature in the context of global warming is significant for public health. Although many studies have examined changes in temperature and the impacts on human health over the past few decades in many regions, they have often been carried out in data-rich regions and have rarely considered acclimatization explicitly. The most frequent temperature (MFT) indicator provides us with the ability to solve this problem. MFT is defined as the longest period of temperature throughout the year to which a human is exposed and therefore acclimates. In this study, we propose a new method to estimate the number of heat exposure days from the perspective of temperature distribution and MFT, based on the daily mean temperature readings of 2142 weather stations in eight major climate zones in China over the past 20 years. This method can be used to calculate the number of heat exposure days in terms of heat-related mortality risk without the need for mortality data. We estimated the distribution and changes of annual mean temperature (AMT), minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and the number of heat exposure days in different climate zones in China. The AMT, MMT, and number of heat exposure days vary considerably across China. They all tend to decrease gradually from low to high latitudes. Heat exposure days are closely related to the risk of heat-related mortality. In addition, we utilized multiple linear regression (MLR) to analyze the association between the risk of heat-related mortality and the city and its climatic characteristics. Results showed that the number of heat exposure days, GDP per capita, urban population ratio, proportion of elderly population, and climate zone were found to modify the estimate on heat effect, with an R2 of 0.71. These findings will be helpful for the creation of public policies protecting against high-temperature-induced mortalities

Village-level poverty identification using machine learning, high-resolution images, and geospatial data

Tracking progress in poverty alleviation and promptly identifying the distribution of poor areas are critical for strategic policy interventions, especially for regions with poor statistical systems. The massive satellite imagery and geospatial data provide great opportunities for timely and cost-effective socioeconomic evaluations. However, existing research on poverty identification is mostly based on satellite images, and the potential of combined multi-source geospatial data on poverty identification has not been fully explored. Here, we propose an approach that evaluates how village-level poverty can be identified by integrating high-resolution imagery (HRI), point-of-interest (POI), OpenStreetMap (OSM), and digital surface model (DSM) data. The study area included 338 villages from Yunyang County, located in Hubei Province, central China. We extracted the explanatory variables indicating access to facilities and services, agricultural production conditions, village construction, and the spatial distribution of village settlements from the HRI, POI, OSM, and DSM data. The random forest algorithm was then used to model the relationship between village-level poverty and explanatory variables. The results demonstrated a 54% accuracy in the prediction of village-level poverty; the best prediction performance (72%) was observed for the villages categorized as poor. The built-up land proportion and the time cost to the facilities and services contributed the most to the identification of village-level poverty, while the proxy variables of agricultural production conditions contributed the least. This study provides an approach to village-level poverty identification using satellite imagery and geospatial data and proves that the data employed in this study could identify the poorest areas that are highly coupled with natural geographical conditions and backward public services

A spatial and temporal analysis of Japanese encephalitis in mainland China, 1963-1975: a period without Japanese encephalitis vaccination.

More than a million Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases occurred in mainland China from the 1960s to 1970s without vaccine interventions. The aim of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal pattern of JE cases reported in mainland China from 1965 to 1973 in the absence of JE vaccination, and to discuss the impacts of climatic and geographical factors on JE during that period. Thus, the data of reported JE cases at provincial level and monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature from 1963 to 1975 in mainland China were collected. Local Indicators of Spatial Association analysis was performed to identify spatial clusters at the province level. During that period, The epidemic peaked in 1966 and 1971 and the JE incidence reached up to 20.58/100000 and 20.92/100000, respectively. The endemic regions can be divided into three classes including high, medium, and low prevalence regions. Through spatial cluster analysis, JE epidemic hot spots were identified; most were located in the Yangtze River Plain which lies in the southeast of China. In addition, JE incidence was shown to vary among eight geomorphic units in China. Also, the JE incidence in the Loess Plateau and the North China Plain was showed to increase with the rise of temperature. Likewise, JE incidence in the Loess Plateau and the Yangtze River Plain was observed a same trend with the increase of rainfall. In conclusion, the JE cases clustered geographically during the epidemic period. Besides, the JE incidence was markedly higher on the plains than plateaus. These results may provide an insight into the epidemiological characteristics of JE in the absence of vaccine interventions and assist health authorities, both in China and potentially in Europe and Americas, in JE prevention and control strategies

Assessment of Night-Time Lighting for Global Terrestrial Protected and Wilderness Areas

Protected areas (PAs) play an important role in biodiversity conservation and ecosystem integrity. However, human development has threatened and affected the function and effectiveness of PAs. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) night-time stable light (NTL) data have proven to be an effective indicator of the intensity and change of human-induced urban development over a long time span and at a larger spatial scale. We used the NTL data from 1992 to 2013 to characterize the human-induced urban development and studied the spatial and temporal variation of the NTL of global terrestrial PAs. We selected seven types of PAs defined by the International Union for Conversation of Nature (IUCN), including strict nature reserve (Ia), wilderness area (Ib), national park (II), natural monument or feature (III), habitat/species management area (IV), protected landscape/seascape (V), and protected area with sustainable use of natural resources (VI). We evaluated the NTL digital number (DN) in PAs and their surrounding buffer zones, i.e., 0&ndash;1 km, 1&ndash;5 km, 5&ndash;10 km, 10&ndash;25 km, 25&ndash;50 km, and 50&ndash;100 km. The results revealed the level, growth rate, trend, and distribution pattern of NTL in PAs. Within PAs, areas of types V and Ib had the highest and lowest NTL levels, respectively. In the surrounding 1&ndash;100 km buffer zones, type V PAs also had the highest NTL level, but type VI PAs had the lowest NTL level. The NTL level in the areas surrounding PAs was higher than that within PAs. Types Ia and III PAs showed the highest and lowest NTL growth rate from 1992 to 2013, respectively, both inside and outside of PAs. The NTL distributions surrounding the Ib and VI PAs were different from other types. The areas close to Ib and VI boundaries, i.e., in the 0&ndash;25 km buffer zones, showed lower NTL levels, for which the highest NTL level was observed within the 25&ndash;100 km buffer zone. However, other types of PAs showed the opposite NTL patterns. The NTL level was lower in the distant buffer zones, and the lowest night light was within the 1&ndash;25 km buffer zones. Globally, 6.9% of PAs are being affected by NTL. Conditions of wilderness areas, e.g., high latitude regions, Tibetan Plateau, Amazon, and Caribbean, are the least affected by NTL. The PAs in Europe, Asia, and North America are more affected by NTL than South America, Africa, and Oceania