The Global Stability Analysis for an SIS Model with Age and Infection Age Structures

27 pages, 1 article*The Global Stability Analysis for an SIS Model with Age and Infection Age Structures* (Zhou, Yicang; Song, Baojun; Ma, Zhien) 27 page

Afterpulse correction for micro-pulse lidar to improve middle and upper tropospheric aerosol measurements

Micro-pulse lidar (MPL) measurements have been widely used in atmospheric research over the past few decades. However, the MPL afterpulse noise has a large impact on the MPL aerosol measurement in the middle and upper troposphere, and an effective correction method is still lacking. Here, a new afterpulse correction approach is presented by using measurements with low-level optically thick clouds to act as the lids blocking atmospheric signals beyond the clouds completely. Examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this correction method. Using one-year 2014 MPL measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site, the impact of the correction on the aerosol measurements is quantified. The relative error (RE, %) of attenuated backscattering ratio (ABR) without the afterpulse correction is 30% and 190% at the height of 1.00 km and 9.00 km (AGL), and the RE is larger for weaker aerosol signals (ABR&lt;2). The RE of linear depolarization ratio (LDR), which is significantly higher than that of ABR for a given aerosol layer, is highly non-linear above 3.00 km, with a value of 300%-900% for weak aerosols (ABR&lt;2) above 3.00 km. Therefore, the afterpulse correction is critical for the middle and upper tropospheric aerosol observations. We demonstrated that our afterpulse correction can provide reasonable particle depolarization ratio (PDR) to properly identify dust aerosols. The newly developed method can be applied to long-term MPL measurements to support aerosol and mixed-phase/ice cloud interaction study at the NSA site.</p

Community-Based Measures for Mitigating the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic in China

Since the emergence of influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus in March–April 2009, very stringent interventions including Fengxiao were implemented to prevent importation of infected cases and decelerate the disease spread in mainland China. The extent to which these measures have been effective remains elusive. We sought to investigate the effectiveness of Fengxiao that may inform policy decisions on improving community-based interventions for management of on-going outbreaks in China, in particular during the Spring Festival in mid-February 2010 when nationwide traveling will be substantially increased. We obtained data on initial laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1 in the province of Shaanxi and used Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulations to estimate the reproduction number. Given the estimates for the exposed and infectious periods of the novel H1N1 virus, we estimated a mean reproduction number of 1.68 (95% CI 1.45–1.92) and other A/H1N1 epidemiological parameters. Our results based on a spatially stratified population dynamical model show that the early implementation of Fengxiao can delay the epidemic peak significantly and prevent the disease spread to the general population but may also, if not implemented appropriately, cause more severe outbreak within universities/colleges, while late implementation of Fengxiao can achieve nothing more than no implementation. Strengthening local control strategies (quarantine and hygiene precaution) is much more effective in mitigating outbreaks and inhibiting the successive waves than implementing Fengxiao. Either strong mobility or high transport-related transmission rate during the Spring Festival holiday will not reverse the ongoing outbreak, but both will result in a large new wave. The findings suggest that Fengxiao and travel precautions should not be relaxed unless strict measures of quarantine, isolation, and hygiene precaution practices are put in place. Integration and prompt implementation of these interventions can significantly reduce the overall attack rate of pandemic outbreaks

Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density

Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals &lt;1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data

A Risk Score Model Based on Nine Differentially Methylated mRNAs for Predicting Prognosis of Patients with Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma

Purpose. DNA methylation alterations play important roles in initiation and progression of clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). In this study, we attempted to identify differentially methylated mRNA signatures with prognostic value for ccRCC. Methods. The mRNA methylation and expression profiling data of 306 ccRCC tumors were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) to screen differentially methylated lncRNAs and mRNAs (DMLs and DMMs) between bad and good prognosis patients. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression analyses and LASSO Cox-PH regression analysis were used to select prognostic lncRNAs and mRNAs. Corresponding risk scores were calculated and compared for predictive performance in the training set using Kaplan-Meier OS and ROC curve analyses. The optimal risk score was then identified and validated in the validation set. Function enrichment analysis was conducted. Results. This study screened 461 DMMs and 63 DMLs between good prognosis and bad prognosis patients, and furthermore, nine mRNAs and six lncRNAs were identified as potential prognostic molecules. Compared to nine-mRNA status risk score model, six-lncRNA methylation risk score model, and six-lncRNA status risk score model, the nine-mRNA methylation risk score model showed superiority for prognosis stratification of ccRCC patients in the training set. The prognostic ability of the nine-mRNA methylation risk score model was validated in the validation set. The nine prognostic mRNAs were functionally associated with neuroactive ligand receptor interaction and inflammation-related pathways. Conclusion. The nine-mRNA methylation signature (DMRTA2, DRGX, FAM167A, FGGY, FOXI2, KRTAP2-1, TCTEX1D1, TTBK1, and UBE2QL1) may be a useful prognostic biomarker and tool for ccRCC patients. The present results would be helpful to elucidate the possible pathogenesis of ccRCC