Suitable areas for <i>Diabrotica virgifera virgifera</i> and value of assets.

<p>A: Area where the ecoclimatic index (EI) is above zero, B: Growth index (GI) (source for A and B: Kriticos et al. 2012), C: Percentage of area covered by grain and forage maize, and D: Value of grain and forage maize in euros per km² (source for C and D: McGill University 2011).</p

Experts’ assessment regarding the level of difficulty of parameter estimation in their case study (numbers indicate how often a score was given).

<p>Experts’ assessment regarding the level of difficulty of parameter estimation in their case study (numbers indicate how often a score was given).</p

Experts’ assessment of the level difficulty to obtain data for model parameterisation in their case study (numbers indicate how often a score was given).

1<p>Model A was deemed not applicable in 6 out of 8 cases, mostly because of the effort involved in obtaining spatially explicit data on the value of assets at risk. The spread model component of model A is relatively simple to apply, but was not tested separately.</p

Frequency distribution of the potential economic impact of pest invasion in three scenarios of model A in a case study based on <i>Diabrotica virgifera virgifera</i>.

<p>The potential economic impact is quantified by accumulating the asset value in invaded cells in 2010. These three figures correspond to (A) best case scenario, (B) worst case scenario (C) random case scenario. Spread model A is based on logistic increase (<i>r</i> = 0.33 yr⁻¹) in the number of invaded cells on the map.</p

Experts’ assessment of the uncertainty of parameter estimates in their case study (numbers indicate how often a score was given).

<p>Experts’ assessment of the uncertainty of parameter estimates in their case study (numbers indicate how often a score was given).</p

Sensitivity analysis: effect of parameter changes in models C and D on the total population.

<p>The population size (y-axis) is given as a multiple of the population size in the base line scenario (3.2×10¹⁰ in model C and 1.6×10¹² in model D). The total population represents the total number of insects in the area of potential establishment.</p

Perturbation of invaded area with time for each model.

<p>A value of zero means that the scaled area does not change with a combination of parameters +/−10%. (*) ND means that the value is not defined because the invaded area for the baseline value is 0. (¤) Since a change in the parameter values of model D has negligible effects on the invaded area at time t  = 18 yrs (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0043366#pone-0043366-t002" target="_blank">Table 2</a>), it was not possible to define worst and best cases associated with this variable, and the sensitivity was set to 0.</p

Sensitivity analysis: (A) total invaded area (km²) (for the baseline values in model A: 691,400–751,523 km², model B (<i>t</i> = 8 yrs): 3,578,880 km², model C: 59,790 km², and model D: 2,010,382 km²), (B) total invaded maize acreage (for the baseline values in model A: 1,868–97,385 km², model B: 174,706 km², model C: 2,508 km², and model D: 122,274 km²).

<p>Sensitivity analysis: (A) total invaded area (km²) (for the baseline values in model A: 691,400–751,523 km², model B (<i>t</i> = 8 yrs): 3,578,880 km², model C: 59,790 km², and model D: 2,010,382 km²), (B) total invaded maize acreage (for the baseline values in model A: 1,868–97,385 km², model B: 174,706 km², model C: 2,508 km², and model D: 122,274 km²).</p

Experts’ feedback on the suitability of four models in practical pest risk assessment based on their experience on specific case studies (numbers indicate how often a score was given).

<p>Experts’ feedback on the suitability of four models in practical pest risk assessment based on their experience on specific case studies (numbers indicate how often a score was given).</p

Spread simulation of <i>Diabrotica virgifera virgifera</i> for the year 2010 using model C with the baseline parameter values.

<p>There was virtually no difference between scenarios, therefore only the baselines scenario is given.</p