Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning-based calculator for predicting 5-year weight trajectories after bariatric surgery: a multinational retrospective cohort SOPHIA study

Background Weight loss trajectories after bariatric surgery vary widely between individuals, and predicting weight loss before the operation remains challenging. We aimed to develop a model using machine learning to provide individual preoperative prediction of 5-year weight loss trajectories after surgery. Methods In this multinational retrospective observational study we enrolled adult participants (aged $\ge$18 years) from ten prospective cohorts (including ABOS [NCT01129297], BAREVAL [NCT02310178], the Swedish Obese Subjects study, and a large cohort from the Dutch Obesity Clinic [Nederlandse Obesitas Kliniek]) and two randomised trials (SleevePass [NCT00793143] and SM-BOSS [NCT00356213]) in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, with a 5 year followup after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, sleeve gastrectomy, or gastric band. Patients with a previous history of bariatric surgery or large delays between scheduled and actual visits were excluded. The training cohort comprised patients from two centres in France (ABOS and BAREVAL). The primary outcome was BMI at 5 years. A model was developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to select variables and the classification and regression trees algorithm to build interpretable regression trees. The performances of the model were assessed through the median absolute deviation (MAD) and root mean squared error (RMSE) of BMI. Findings10 231 patients from 12 centres in ten countries were included in the analysis, corresponding to 30 602 patient-years. Among participants in all 12 cohorts, 7701 (75$\bullet$3%) were female, 2530 (24$\bullet$7%) were male. Among 434 baseline attributes available in the training cohort, seven variables were selected: height, weight, intervention type, age, diabetes status, diabetes duration, and smoking status. At 5 years, across external testing cohorts the overall mean MAD BMI was 2$\bullet$8 kg/m${}^2$ (95% CI 2$\bullet$6-3$\bullet$0) and mean RMSE BMI was 4$\bullet$7 kg/m${}^2$ (4$\bullet$4-5$\bullet$0), and the mean difference between predicted and observed BMI was-0$\bullet$3 kg/m${}^2$ (SD 4$\bullet$7). This model is incorporated in an easy to use and interpretable web-based prediction tool to help inform clinical decision before surgery. InterpretationWe developed a machine learning-based model, which is internationally validated, for predicting individual 5-year weight loss trajectories after three common bariatric interventions.Comment: The Lancet Digital Health, 202

Type 2 Diabetes Variants Disrupt Function of SLC16A11 through Two Distinct Mechanisms

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) affects Latinos at twice the rate seen in populations of European descent. We recently identified a risk haplotype spanning SLC16A11 that explains ∼20% of the increased T2D prevalence in Mexico. Here, through genetic fine-mapping, we define a set of tightly linked variants likely to contain the causal allele(s). We show that variants on the T2D-associated haplotype have two distinct effects: (1) decreasing SLC16A11 expression in liver and (2) disrupting a key interaction with basigin, thereby reducing cell-surface localization. Both independent mechanisms reduce SLC16A11 function and suggest SLC16A11 is the causal gene at this locus. To gain insight into how SLC16A11 disruption impacts T2D risk, we demonstrate that SLC16A11 is a proton-coupled monocarboxylate transporter and that genetic perturbation of SLC16A11 induces changes in fatty acid and lipid metabolism that are associated with increased T2D risk. Our findings suggest that increasing SLC16A11 function could be therapeutically beneficial for T2D. Video Abstract [Figure presented] Keywords: type 2 diabetes (T2D); genetics; disease mechanism; SLC16A11; MCT11; solute carrier (SLC); monocarboxylates; fatty acid metabolism; lipid metabolism; precision medicin

30-day morbidity and mortality of sleeve gastrectomy, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and one anastomosis gastric bypass: a propensity score-matched analysis of the GENEVA data

Background: There is a paucity of data comparing 30-day morbidity and mortality of sleeve gastrectomy (SG), Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), and one anastomosis gastric bypass (OAGB). This study aimed to compare the 30-day safety of SG, RYGB, and OAGB in propensity score-matched cohorts. Materials and methods: This analysis utilised data collected from the GENEVA study which was a multicentre observational cohort study of bariatric and metabolic surgery (BMS) in 185 centres across 42 countries between 01/05/2022 and 31/10/2020 during the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. 30-day complications were categorised according to the Clavien–Dindo classification. Patients receiving SG, RYGB, or OAGB were propensity-matched according to baseline characteristics and 30-day complications were compared between groups. Results: In total, 6770 patients (SG 3983; OAGB 702; RYGB 2085) were included in this analysis. Prior to matching, RYGB was associated with highest 30-day complication rate (SG 5.8%; OAGB 7.5%; RYGB 8.0% (p = 0.006)). On multivariate regression modelling, Insulin-dependent type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypercholesterolaemia were associated with increased 30-day complications. Being a non-smoker was associated with reduced complication rates. When compared to SG as a reference category, RYGB, but not OAGB, was associated with an increased rate of 30-day complications. A total of 702 pairs of SG and OAGB were propensity score-matched. The complication rate in the SG group was 7.3% (n = 51) as compared to 7.5% (n = 53) in the OAGB group (p = 0.68). Similarly, 2085 pairs of SG and RYGB were propensity score-matched. The complication rate in the SG group was 6.1% (n = 127) as compared to 7.9% (n = 166) in the RYGB group (p = 0.09). And, 702 pairs of OAGB and RYGB were matched. The complication rate in both groups was the same at 7.5 % (n = 53; p = 0.07). Conclusions: This global study found no significant difference in the 30-day morbidity and mortality of SG, RYGB, and OAGB in propensity score-matched cohorts

30-Day morbidity and mortality of bariatric metabolic surgery in adolescence during the COVID-19 pandemic – The GENEVA study

Background: Metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) is an effective treatment for adolescents with severe obesity. Objectives: This study examined the safety of MBS in adolescents during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods: This was a global, multicentre and observational cohort study of MBS performed between May 01, 2020, and October 10,2020, in 68 centres from 24 countries. Data collection included in-hospital and 30-day COVID-19 and surgery-specific morbidity/mortality. Results: One hundred and seventy adolescent patients (mean age: 17.75 ± 1.30 years), mostly females (n = 122, 71.8%), underwent MBS during the study period. The mean pre-operative weight and body mass index were 122.16 ± 15.92 kg and 43.7 ± 7.11 kg/m2, respectively. Although majority of patients had pre-operative testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (n = 146; 85.9%), only 42.4% (n = 72) of the patients were asked to self-isolate pre-operatively. Two patients developed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection post-operatively (1.2%). The overall complication rate was 5.3% (n = 9). There was no mortality in this cohort. Conclusions: MBS in adolescents with obesity is safe during the COVID-19 pandemic when performed within the context of local precautionary procedures (such as pre-operative testing). The 30-day morbidity rates were similar to those reported pre-pandemic. These data will help facilitate the safe re-introduction of MBS services for this group of patients

Causes of revisional surgery, reoperations, and readmissions after bariatric surgery

Introduction and objectives: Bariatric surgery is the most effective treatment for weight loss, with comorbidity control. With low complication rates, the reasons for reoperation are major complications or weight loss failure/weight regain. Nonsurgical problems can also present, such as anemia, dehydration, chronic pain, and malnutrition, among others. Our aim was to analyze the main causes of revisional surgery, reoperation, and hospital readmission, at a specialized bariatric center. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on patients that underwent bariatric surgery within the time frame of 2012 and 2019. The baseline analysis included demographic, anthropometric, and perioperative data, as well as a sub-analysis of the main readmission causes and complications. Results: A total of 776 primary surgeries were performed (649 RYGBP, 127 SG, and 10 revisional surgeries), and 99 patients were identified for the study: 10 revisional surgeries, 44 reoperations, and 45 readmissions. The incidence of revisional surgery was 1.2%, reoperation was 5.6%, and readmission 5.8%. Fifty percent of the revisional surgeries were performed due to insufficient weight loss or weight regain; the most frequent causes of reoperation were cholecystitis (38.6%) and internal hernias (9.1%); and the most common causes of readmission were nonspecific abdominal pain (35.5%) and dehydration (24.4%). Conclusion: The most frequent causes of postoperative readmission were nonsurgical events, followed by non-bariatric reoperations, and finally revisional surgeries. There was a low incidence of early reoperations. Knowledge of the abovementioned data is important for identifying higher-risk patients, to prevent major complications. Resumen: Introducción y objetivos: La cirugía bariátrica es el tratamiento más efectivo para la pérdida de peso, con control de comorbilidades. Con bajas tasas de complicaciones, las razones para una reintervención pueden ser complicaciones mayores o falla/reganancia de peso. También se presentan problemas no quirúrgicos como anemia, deshidratación, dolor crónico y desnutrición, entre otros. El objetivo fue analizar las principales causas de cirugía revisional, reoperación y readmisión en un centro bariátrico de referencia. Métodos: Estudio retrospectivo de pacientes sometidos a cirugía bariátrica entre 2012 y 2019. Se realizó un análisis basal incluyendo datos demográficos, antropométricos y perioperatorios y un subanálisis con las principales indicaciones de readmisión y complicaciones. Resultados: Se realizaron 776 cirugías primarias (649 BPGYR, 127 MG y 10 cirugías de revisión), incluyendo 99 pacientes para el estudio: 10 de cirugía revisional, 44 reoperaciones y 45 readmisiones. La incidencia de cirugía revisional fue 1,2%, reoperación y readmisión 5,6% y 5,8% respectivamente. El 50% de las cirugías revisionales fue por pérdida insuficiente o reganancia de peso. Las causas más frecuentes de reoperación fueron: colecistitis (38.6%) y hernias internas (9.1%); las causas de readmisión más comunes fueron dolor abdominal inespecífico (35.5%) y deshidratación (24.4%). Conclusión: Las causas más frecuentes de readmisión poscirugía fueron enfermedades no quirúrgicas, seguido de reoperaciones no bariátricas y, finalmente, cirugías de revisión. Las reoperaciones tempranas por complicaciones tienen una incidencia baja. Es importante conocer lo previo para identificar a los pacientes con mayor riesgo y así prevenir complicaciones mayores

Causas de cirugía revisional, reoperaciones y readmisión posterior a cirugía bariátrica

Resumen: Introducción y objetivos: La cirugía bariátrica es el tratamiento más efectivo para la pérdida de peso, con control de comorbilidades. Con bajas tasas de complicaciones, las razones para una reintervención pueden ser complicaciones mayores o falla/reganancia de peso. También se presentan problemas no quirúrgicos como anemia, deshidratación, dolor crónico y desnutrición, entre otros. El objetivo fue analizar las principales causas de cirugía revisional, reoperación y readmisión en un centro bariátrico de referencia. Métodos: Estudio retrospectivo de pacientes sometidos a cirugía bariátrica entre 2012 y 2019. Se realizó un análisis basal incluyendo datos demográficos, antropométricos y perioperatorios y un subanálisis con las principales indicaciones de readmisión y complicaciones. Resultados: Se realizaron 776 cirugías primarias (649 BPGYR, 127 MG y 10 cirugías de revisión), incluyendo 99 pacientes para el estudio: 10 de cirugía revisional, 44 reoperaciones y 45 readmisiones. La incidencia de cirugía revisional fue 1,2%, reoperación y readmisión 5,6% y 5,8% respectivamente. El 50% de las cirugías revisionales fue por pérdida insuficiente o reganancia de peso. Las causas más frecuentes de reoperación fueron: colecistitis (38.6%) y hernias internas (9.1%); las causas de readmisión más comunes fueron dolor abdominal inespecífico (35.5%) y deshidratación (24.4%). Conclusión: Las causas más frecuentes de readmisión poscirugía fueron enfermedades no quirúrgicas, seguido de reoperaciones no bariátricas y, finalmente, cirugías de revisión. Las reoperaciones tempranas por complicaciones tienen una incidencia baja. Es importante conocer lo previo para identificar a los pacientes con mayor riesgo y así prevenir complicaciones mayores. Abstract: Introduction and objectives: Bariatric surgery is the most effective treatment for weight loss, with comorbidity control. With low complication rates, the reasons for reoperation are major complications or weight loss failure/weight regain. Nonsurgical problems can also present, such as anemia, dehydration, chronic pain, and malnutrition, among others. Our aim was to analyze the main causes of revisional surgery, reoperation, and hospital readmission, at a specialized bariatric center. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on patients that underwent bariatric surgery within the time frame of 2012 and 2019. The baseline analysis included demographic, anthropometric, and perioperative data, as well as a sub-analysis of the main readmission causes and complications. Results: A total of 776 primary surgeries were performed (649 RYGBP, 127 SG, and 10 revisional surgeries), and 99 patients were identified for the study: 10 revisional surgeries, 44 reoperations, and 45 readmissions. The incidence of revisional surgery was 1.2%, reoperation was 5.6%, and readmission 5.8%. Fifty percent of the revisional surgeries were performed due to insufficient weight loss or weight regain; the most frequent causes of reoperation were cholecystitis (38.6%) and internal hernias (9.1%); and the most common causes of readmission were nonspecific abdominal pain (35.5%) and dehydration (24.4%). Conclusion: The most frequent causes of postoperative readmission were nonsurgical events, followed by non-bariatric reoperations, and finally revisional surgeries. There was a low incidence of early reoperations. Knowledge of the abovementioned data is important for identifying higher-risk patients, to prevent major complications