Machines as Engines of Growth

This paper builds a model of growth through industrialization, where machines replace workers in a growing number of tasks. This enables the economy to experience long-run growth, as machines become servants of humans, and as their number grows unboundedly. The mechanism that drives growth is feedback between industrialization and wages. High wages provide incentives to use machines, while industrialization raises wages. The model shows that industrialization and growth take off only if the economy is productive enough. It also shows that monopoly power can stifle growth, as it lowers wages. Hence, a one-time increase in productivity, or a reduction of monopoly power can push economies from stagnation to industrialization.Economic Growth, Industrialization, Technology

Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Emerging Countries: the Cycle is the Trend

This paper uses the Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) methodology in order to estimate whether “the cycle is the trend” in 23 emerging markets and 22 OECD economies. These estimates are then used to test whether procyclical fiscal policy in emerging countries is due to persistent shocks to per-capita GDP. We find support for this hypothesis. While both developed and emerging countries have a procyclical policy for investment expenditure, procyclicality is evident in emerging countries also for government consumption and transfers. Over the period of increasing globalization after the 1990s, these are signs of a reduction in the extent of procyclical expenditure policy in emerging countries. We also find that, in countries with high levels of foreign direct investment, procyclicality is milder.

Technical Progress and Early Retirement

This paper claims that technical progress induces early retirement of older workers. Technical progress erodes technology specific human capital. Since older workers have shorter career horizons, there is less incentive for them or for their employers to invest in learning how to use the new technologies. Consequently, they are more likely to stop working. We call this effect the erosion effect. Since technical progress also raises wages in the economy as a whole and since technical progress is positively correlated across sectors, this presents an opposite effect of technical progress, which we call the wage effect. Using individual and sector data, we separate the two effects and find support for our theory. JEL Specification: J24, J26, O15, O33Early Retirement, Technical Change, Human Capital, Labor For

Technology and Labor Regulations

Many low skilled jobs have been substituted away for machines in Europe, or eliminated, much more so than in the US, while technological progress at the “top”, i.e. at the high-tech sector, is faster in the US than in Europe. This paper suggests that the main difference between Europe and the US in this respect is their different labor market policies. European countries reduce wage flexibility and inequality through a host of labor market regulations, like binding minimum wage laws, permanent unemployment subsidies, firing costs, etc. Such policies create incentives to develop and adopt labor saving capital intensive technologies at the low end of the skill distribution. At the same time technical change in the US is more skill biased than in Europe, since American skilled wages are higher. In the last few years some partial labor market reforms in Europe may have started to slow down or even reverse this trend.

Innovations, Patent Races and Endogenous Growth

This paper presents a model of innovations and economic growth, which departs from standard endogenous growth models by assuming that the set of potential projects for innovation in each period is limited. The model differs in a number of results from former endogenous growth models. First, it explains patent races, where many research teams search for the same potential innovation. Second, the rate of growth of the economy is bounded and does not rise too much with the scale of the economy. Namely, the model gives rise to a non-linear relationship between the size of the R&D sector and the rate of growth. Third, R&D is Pareto-inefficient, as there are too many research teams searching for the same breakthrough. This problem increases with scale. Fourth, concentration of R&D by monopolistic firms is explained in this model by risk aversion.This paper presents a model of innovations and economic growth, which departs from standard endogenous growth models by assuming that the set of potential projects for innovation in each period is limited. The model differs in a number of results from former endogenous growth models. First, it explains patent races, where many research teams search for the same potential innovation. Second, the rate of growth of the economy is bounded and does not rise too much with the scale of the economy. Namely, the model gives rise to a non-linear relationship between the size of the R&D sector and the rate of growth. Third, R&D is Pareto-inefficient, as there are too many research teams searching for the same breakthrough. This problem increases with scale. Fourth, concentration of R&D by monopolistic firms is explained in this model by risk aversion.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl

Machines as Engines of Growth

This paper builds a model of growth through industrialization, where machines replace workers in a growing number of tasks. This enables the economy to experience long-run growth, as machines become servants of humans, and as their number grows unboundedly. The mechanism that drives growth is feedback between industrialization and wages. High wages provide incentives to use machines, while industrialization raises wages. The model shows that industrialization and growth take off only if the economy is productive enough. It also shows that monopoly power can stifle growth, as it lowers wages. Hence, a one-time increase in productivity, or a reduction of monopoly power can push economies from stagnation to industrialization.This paper builds a model of growth through industrialization, where machines replace workers in a growing number of tasks. This enables the economy to experience long-run growth, as machines become servants of humans, and as their number grows unboundedly. The mechanism that drives growth is feedback between industrialization and wages. High wages provide incentives to use machines, while industrialization raises wages. The model shows that industrialization and growth take off only if the economy is productive enough. It also shows that monopoly power can stifle growth, as it lowers wages. Hence, a one-time increase in productivity, or a reduction of monopoly power can push economies from stagnation to industrialization.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl

Inequality and Mobility

Acknowledging that wage inequality and intergenerational mobility are strongly interrelated, this paper presents a model in which both are jointly determined. The model enables us to study how inequality and mobility are affected by exogenous changes and what determines their correlation. A main implication of the model is that differences in the amount of public subsidies to education and educational quality produce cross-country patterns with a negative correlation between inequality and mobility. Differences in the labor market, like differences in skill-biased technology or wage compression instead produce a positive correlation. The predictions of the model are found to be consistent with various empirical observations on mobility and inequality.

The Evolution of Paper Money

This paper tells the story of how paper money evolved as a result of lending by banks. While lending commodity money requires holding large reserves of commodity money to ensure liquidity, issuing convertible paper money reduces these costs significantly. The paper also examines the possibility of issuing inconvertible notes and shows that while they further reduce the cost of borrowing they also have adverse effects on the stability of the banking system. As a result, governments often intervened, either outlawing the issuance of such notes, or monopolizing them for themselves by issuing fiat money. The paper examines the process of creation of paper money, but also sheds light on more general issues, like the relation between money and financial intermediation.This paper tells the story of how paper money evolved as a result of lending by banks. While lending commodity money requires holding large reserves of commodity money to ensure liquidity, issuing convertible paper money reduces these costs significantly. The paper also examines the possibility of issuing inconvertible notes and shows that while they further reduce the cost of borrowing they also have adverse effects on the stability of the banking system. As a result, governments often intervened, either outlawing the issuance of such notes, or monopolizing them for themselves by issuing fiat money. The paper examines the process of creation of paper money, but also sheds light on more general issues, like the relation between money and financial intermediation.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl

Commodity Money Inflation: Theory and Evidence from France in 1350-1436

This paper presents a theory of inflation in commodity money and supports it by evidence from inflationary episodes in France during the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries. The paper shows that commodity money can be inflated similarly to fiat money through repeated debasements, which act like devaluations. Furthermore, as with fiat money, demand for commodity money falls with inflation. Unlike fiat money, at high rates of inflation demand for commodity money becomes insensitive to inflation, since commodity money has intrinsic value in addition to its transactions value. Finally, we show that an anticipated stabilization reduces demand for commodity money, which is opposite to the effect of anticipated standard stabilization on demand for fiat money.This paper presents a theory of inflation in commodity money and supports it by evidence from inflationary episodes in France during the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries. The paper shows that commodity money can be inflated similarly to fiat money through repeated debasements, which act like devaluations. Furthermore, as with fiat money, demand for commodity money falls with inflation. Unlike fiat money, at high rates of inflation demand for commodity money becomes insensitive to inflation, since commodity money has intrinsic value in addition to its transactions value. Finally, we show that an anticipated stabilization reduces demand for commodity money, which is opposite to the effect of anticipated standard stabilization on demand for fiat money.Refereed Working Papers / of international relevanc

Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy: Permanent and Transitory Shocks

This paper examines the optimal reaction of fiscal policy to permanent and transitory shocks to output in a model of tax and public consumption smoothing. The model predicts that optimal reaction of public expenditures and deficits to transitory shocks should be counter cyclical, while optimal reaction to permanent shocks should be a-cyclical. Using the Blanchard and Quah (1989) methodology for identifying permanent and transitory shocks, we test these predictions for a sample of 22 OECD countries over the years 1963-2006. We find that both expenditures and deficits are counter cyclical to transitory shocks, mainly through public transfers and mainly in recessions. We find that government investment is pro-cyclical with respect to permanent shocks, but total expenditures are not.This paper examines the optimal reaction of fiscal policy to permanent and transitory shocks to output in a model of tax and public consumption smoothing. The model predicts that optimal reaction of public expenditures and deficits to transitory shocks should be counter cyclical, while optimal reaction to permanent shocks should be a-cyclical. Using the Blanchard and Quah (1989) methodology for identifying permanent and transitory shocks, we test these predictions for a sample of 22 OECD countries over the years 1963-2006. We find that both expenditures and deficits are counter cyclical to transitory shocks, mainly through public transfers and mainly in recessions. We find that government investment is pro-cyclical with respect to permanent shocks, but total expenditures are not.Invited Submission