Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Weather Forecasting

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimension variational (3DVAR) analysis component (WRF-Var). Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in both clear and partly cloudy regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts due to instability added in the forecast soundings by the AIRS profiles. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts

P161 Improved Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Radiance Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction

For over 6 years, AIRS radiances have been assimilated operationally into National (e.g. Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)) and International (e.g. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)), operational centers; assimilated in the North American Mesoscale (NAM) since 2008. Due partly to data latency and operational constraints, hyperspectral radiance assimilation has had less impact on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system used in the NAM and GFS. Objective of this project is to use AIRS retrieved profiles as a proxy for the AIRS radiances in situations where AIRS radiances are unable to be assimilated in the current operational system by evaluating location and magnitude of analysis increments

Evaluating the Contribution of NASA Remotely-Sensed Data Sets on a Convection-Allowing Forecast Model

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service forecast offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to help its partners address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is using guidance from local and regional deterministic numerical models configured at convection-allowing resolution to help assess a variety of mesoscale/convective-scale phenomena such as sea-breezes, local wind circulations, and mesoscale convective weather potential on a given day. While guidance from convection-allowing models has proven valuable in many circumstances, the potential exists for model improvements by incorporating more representative land-water surface datasets, and by assimilating retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from hyper-spectral sounders. In order to help increase the accuracy of deterministic convection-allowing models, SPoRT produces real-time, 4-km CONUS forecasts using a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (hereafter SPoRT-WRF) that includes unique NASA products and capabilities including 4-km resolution soil initialization data from the Land Information System (LIS), 2-km resolution SPoRT SST composites over oceans and large water bodies, high-resolution real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composites derived from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). NCAR's Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package is used to generate statistics of model performance compared to in situ observations and rainfall analyses for three months during the summer of 2012 (June-August). Detailed analyses of specific severe weather outbreaks during the summer will be presented to assess the potential added-value of the SPoRT datasets and data assimilation methodology compared to a WRF configuration without the unique datasets and data assimilation

Assimilation of SMOS Retrieved Soil Moisture into the Land Information System

Soil moisture is a crucial variable for weather prediction because of its influence on evaporation and surface heat fluxes. It is also of critical importance for drought and flood monitoring and prediction and for public health applications such as monitoring vector-borne diseases. Land surface modeling benefits greatly from regular updates with soil moisture observations via data assimilation. Satellite remote sensing is the only practical observation type for this purpose in most areas due to its worldwide coverage. The newest operational satellite sensor for soil moisture is the Microwave Imaging Radiometer using Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS) instrument aboard the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) has implemented the assimilation of SMOS soil moisture observations into the NASA Land Information System (LIS), an integrated modeling and data assimilation software platform. We present results from assimilating SMOS observations into the Noah 3.2 land surface model within LIS. The SMOS MIRAS is an L-band radiometer launched by the European Space Agency in 2009, from which we assimilate Level 2 retrievals [1] into LIS-Noah. The measurements are sensitive to soil moisture concentration in roughly the top 2.5 cm of soil. The retrievals have a target volumetric accuracy of 4% at a resolution of 35-50 km. Sensitivity is reduced where precipitation, snowcover, frozen soil, or dense vegetation is present. Due to the satellite's polar orbit, the instrument achieves global coverage twice daily at most mid- and low-latitude locations, with only small gaps between swaths

Transitioning NASA and NOAA Satellite Products, Modeling Data Assimilation Techniques, and Nowcasting Tools to Operations

No abstract availabl

Assimilation of SMOS Retrievals in the Land Information System

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite provides retrievals of soil moisture in the upper 5 cm with a 30-50 km resolution and a mission accuracy requirement of 0.04 cm(sub 3 cm(sub -3). These observations can be used to improve land surface model soil moisture states through data assimilation. In this paper, SMOS soil moisture retrievals are assimilated into the Noah land surface model via an Ensemble Kalman Filter within the NASA Land Information System. Bias correction is implemented using Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) matching, with points aggregated by either land cover or soil type to reduce sampling error in generating the CDFs. An experiment was run for the warm season of 2011 to test SMOS data assimilation and to compare assimilation methods. Verification of soil moisture analyses in the 0-10 cm upper layer and root zone (0-1 m) was conducted using in situ measurements from several observing networks in the central and southeastern United States. This experiment showed that SMOS data assimilation significantly increased the anomaly correlation of Noah soil moisture with station measurements from 0.45 to 0.57 in the 0-10 cm layer. Time series at specific stations demonstrate the ability of SMOS DA to increase the dynamic range of soil moisture in a manner consistent with station measurements. Among the bias correction methods, the correction based on soil type performed best at bias reduction but also reduced correlations. The vegetation-based correction did not produce any significant differences compared to using a simple uniform correction curve