The momentum effect in country-level stock market anomalies

The paper investigates the momentum effect in country-level anomalies in global equity markets. By using a sample of 78 countries for the period from 1995 to 2015, we test a set of potential 40 crosssectional inter-market anomalies, some of which had never been examined before. Based on the findings, according to which half of these return patterns serve as reliable and robust sources of returns, we provide convincing evidence that the anomalies with good performance over the past 6–12 months tend to outperform in the future. Furthermore, returns on individual country-level strategies are weakly correlated. Consequently, developing a portfolio consisting of past top-performing strategies may constitute a valuable approach for international investors

IPO Initial Underpricing Anomaly: the Election Gimmick Hypothesis

The relationship between political motivations and underpricing of public offerings of privatized companies is to a great extend unexplored field in the global academic literature. In this paper we offer a new explanation for the IPO underpricing anomaly. We formulate the election gimmick hypothesis, which states that in order to please the voters the treasury may be motivated to leave some money on the table during the IPOs of state-owned enterprises. We test the practical implications of the hypothesis. First we review the previous literature, next we perform empirical research based on a filtered sample of 250 IPOs on the Polish market in years 2005–2013. We examine the abnormal returns in the sample and employing some regression – and simulation- -based methods we examine the sources and variation in underpricing. Our findings suggest that the IPOs of state-owned enterprises are more underpriced than remaining ones and that there is more money left on the table in the months preceding elections.The relationship between political motivations and underpricing of public offerings of privatized companies is to a great extend unexplored field in the global academic literature. In this paper we offer a new explanation for the IPO underpricing anomaly. We formulate the election gimmick hypothesis, which states that in order to please the voters the treasury may be motivated to leave some money on the table during the IPOs of state-owned enterprises. We test the practical implications of the hypothesis. First we review the previous literature, next we perform empirical research based on a filtered sample of 250 IPOs on the Polish market in years 2005–2013. We examine the abnormal returns in the sample and employing some regression – and simulation- -based methods we examine the sources and variation in underpricing. Our findings suggest that the IPOs of state-owned enterprises are more underpriced than remaining ones and that there is more money left on the table in the months preceding elections

Limits to arbitrage, investor sentiment, and factor returns in international government bond markets

The perspective of behavioural finance is that anomalies in the cross-section of returns are driven by mispricing that arises from investor irrationality that cannot be easily arbitraged away. In this study, we examine the implications of this for international government bond markets. Using data for 25 countries for the years 1992–2015, we replicate multiple factor strategies that represent four major return drivers: defensive (low-risk), carry, value and momentum. We investigate the relationships between the performance of these strategies and market-wide measures of limits to arbitrage and investor sentiment. We find that the defensive strategy performs best during tight arbitrage conditions whereas severe limits to arbitrage negatively affect momentum profits

Seven centuries of commodity co-movement: a wavelet analysis approach

© 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. We examine interdependencies between agricultural, industrial, and energy commodity price indices suing data sets from more than seven centuries. To this end, we apply wavelet coherence and wavelet phase difference. There is a high coherence between prices for all three commodity-groups with energy prices now leading both agricultural and industrial commodity prices. Also, the role of energy as a leading series has increased over time

Comovements between Heavily Shorted Stocks during a Market Squeeze: Lessons from the GameStop Trading Frenzy

We examine the comovements between stock prices of different heavily shorted companies during a short-squeeze incident. Using the recent GameStop trading frenzy as a case study, we employ wavelet coherence analyses to determine its link with other frequently shorted stocks. We demonstrate a robust positive association between GameStop prices and the performance of high short interest indices. The bubble behavior driven by retail investor herding transmits between different stocks, even from unrelated sectors. Consequently, a single short-squeeze incident may build up into a potentially broader systemic risk, casting doubt on market integrity and stability

The (lack of) momentum effect in the UAE stock market

We investigate the momentum effect in the United Arab Emirates equity returns. Using a dataset of 124 firms listed in the UAE stock markets in the period January 2004 – March 2019, we form portfolios from one-way sorts on past returns ranging from 3 to 12 months. Contrary to the evidence from global markets, we have found that the momentum effect in the UAE is weak, unreliable, and insignificant. Under realistic trading assumptions, the momentum strategies cannot outperform a diversified market portfolio

Predicting the performance of equity anomalies in frontier emerging markets: a Markov switching model approach

Equity anomalies in frontier markets appear and disappear over time. This article aims to demonstrate the predictability of which of these transient anomalies will be profitable using a Markov switching model. To do so, we examine 140 equity anomalies identified in the literature using a unique sample of over 3,600 stocks from 23 frontier equity markets between 1997 and 2016. The application of a Markov switching model reveals that the time-series pattern of expected returns is dependent upon the type of anomaly; some anomalies become unprofitable over time whereas profitability increases in tandem with the development of a specific stock market for other types of anomalies. Results further indicate that forecasts of the next month’s return obtained from this model can translate into profitable investment strategies. We find that an anomaly selection strategy that relies on the model produces abnormal returns and outperforms a naïve benchmark that considers all the anomalies. We go onto demonstrate that our results are robust

Is there an illiquidity premium in frontier markets?

© 2019 The Authors We perform a comprehensive examination of the role of stock-level liquidity in the cross-section of frontier market stock returns. Using several popular liquidity measures and a battery of asset pricing tests, we investigate the illiquidity premium in 22 countries for the years 1991–2019. Contrary to typical relationships in developed and emerging markets, we find no evidence of illiquidity premium in frontier equities. Our findings support the hypothesis that for countries not fully integrated with the global economy, the diversification benefits offset the illiquidity, which, in turn, proves less important