Development of multiple linear regression for particulate matter (PM10) forecasting during episodic transboundary haze event in Malaysia

Malaysia has been facing transboundary haze events every year in which the air contains particulate matter, particularly PM10, which affects human health and the environment. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a PM10 forecasting model for early information and warning alerts to the responsible parties in order for them to mitigate and plan precautionary measures during such events. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and compare the best-fitted model for PM10 prediction from the first hour until the next three hours during transboundary haze events. The air pollution data acquired from the Malaysian Department of Environment spanned from the years 2005 until 2014 (excluding years 2007–2009), which included particulate matter (PM10), ozone (O3), nitrogen oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), wind speed (WS), ambient temperature (T), and relative humidity (RH) on an hourly basis. Three different stepwise Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models for predicting the PM10 concentration were then developed based on three different prediction hours, namely t+1, t+2, and t+3. The PM10, t+1 model was the best MLR model to predict PM10 during transboundary haze events compared to PM10,.t+2 and PM10,t+3 models, having the lowest percentage of total error (28%) and the highest accuracy of 46%. A better prediction and explanation of PM10 concentration will help the authorities in getting early information for preserving the air quality, especially during transboundary haze episodes

Spatial-temporal variations in surface ozone over Ushuaia and the Antarctic region: observations from in situ measurements, satellite data, and global models

The Antarctic continent is known to be an unpopulated region due to its extreme weather and climate conditions. However, the air quality over this continent can be affected by long-lived anthropogenic pollutants from the mainland. The Argentinian region of Ushuaia is often the main source area of accumulated hazardous gases over the Antarctic Peninsula. The main objective of this study is to report the first in situ observations yet known of surface ozone (O3) over Ushuaia, the Drake Passage, and Coastal Antarctic Peninsula (CAP) on board the RV Australis during the Malaysian Antarctic Scientific Expedition Cruise 2016 (MASEC’16). Hourly O3 data was measured continuously for 23 days using an EcoTech O3 analyzer. To understand more about the distribution of surface O3 over the Antarctic, we present the spatial and temporal of surface O3 of long-term data (2009–2015) obtained online from the World Meteorology Organization of World Data Centre for greenhouse gases (WMO WDCGG). Furthermore, surface O3 satellite data from the free online NOAA-Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) database and online data assimilation from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)-Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) were used. The data from both online products are compared to document the data sets and to give an indication of its quality towards in situ data. Finally, we used past carbon monoxide (CO) data as a proxy of surface O3 formation over Ushuaia and the Antarctic region. Our key findings were that the surface O3 mixing ratio during MASEC’16 increased from a minimum of 5 ppb to ~ 10–13 ppb approaching the Drake Passage and the Coastal Antarctic Peninsula (CAP) region. The anthropogenic and biogenic O3 precursors from Ushuaia and the marine region influenced the mixing ratio of surface O3 over the Drake Passage and CAP region. The past data from WDCGG showed that the annual O3 cycle has a maximum during the winter of 30 to 35 ppb between June and August and a minimum during the summer (January to February) of 10 to 20 ppb. The surface O3 mixing ratio during the summer was controlled by photochemical processes in the presence of sunlight, leading to the depletion process. During the winter, the photochemical production of surface O3 was more dominant. The NOAA-AIRS and ECMWF-MACC analysis agreed well with the MASEC’16 data but twice were higher during the expedition period. Finally, the CO past data showed the surface O3 mixing ratio was influenced by the CO mixing ratio over both the Ushuaia and Antarctic regions. Peak surface O3 and CO hourly mixing ratios reached up to ~ 38 ppb (O3) and ~ 500 ppb (CO) over Ushuaia. High CO over Ushuaia led to the depletion process of surface O3 over the region. Monthly CO mixing ratio over Antarctic (South Pole) were low, leading to the production of surface O3 over the Antarctic region