Anomaly and Change Detection in Graph Streams through Constant-Curvature Manifold Embeddings

Mapping complex input data into suitable lower dimensional manifolds is a common procedure in machine learning. This step is beneficial mainly for two reasons: (1) it reduces the data dimensionality and (2) it provides a new data representation possibly characterised by convenient geometric properties. Euclidean spaces are by far the most widely used embedding spaces, thanks to their well-understood structure and large availability of consolidated inference methods. However, recent research demonstrated that many types of complex data (e.g., those represented as graphs) are actually better described by non-Euclidean geometries. Here, we investigate how embedding graphs on constant-curvature manifolds (hyper-spherical and hyperbolic manifolds) impacts on the ability to detect changes in sequences of attributed graphs. The proposed methodology consists in embedding graphs into a geometric space and perform change detection there by means of conventional methods for numerical streams. The curvature of the space is a parameter that we learn to reproduce the geometry of the original application-dependent graph space. Preliminary experimental results show the potential capability of representing graphs by means of curved manifold, in particular for change and anomaly detection problems.Comment: To be published in IEEE IJCNN 201

Change Point Methods on a Sequence of Graphs

Given a finite sequence of graphs, e.g., coming from technological, biological, and social networks, the paper proposes a methodology to identify possible changes in stationarity in the stochastic process generating the graphs. In order to cover a large class of applications, we consider the general family of attributed graphs where both topology (number of vertexes and edge configuration) and related attributes are allowed to change also in the stationary case. Novel Change Point Methods (CPMs) are proposed, that (i) map graphs into a vector domain; (ii) apply a suitable statistical test in the vector space; (iii) detect the change --if any-- according to a confidence level and provide an estimate for its time occurrence. Two specific multivariate CPMs have been designed: one that detects shifts in the distribution mean, the other addressing generic changes affecting the distribution. We ground our proposal with theoretical results showing how to relate the inference attained in the numerical vector space to the graph domain, and vice versa. We also show how to extend the methodology for handling multiple change points in the same sequence. Finally, the proposed CPMs have been validated on real data sets coming from epileptic-seizure detection problems and on labeled data sets for graph classification. Results show the effectiveness of what proposed in relevant application scenarios

Graph Kalman Filters

The well-known Kalman filters model dynamical systems by relying on state-space representations with the next state updated, and its uncertainty controlled, by fresh information associated with newly observed system outputs. This paper generalizes, for the first time in the literature, Kalman and extended Kalman filters to discrete-time settings where inputs, states, and outputs are represented as attributed graphs whose topology and attributes can change with time. The setup allows us to adapt the framework to cases where the output is a vector or a scalar too (node/graph level tasks). Within the proposed theoretical framework, the unknown state-transition and the readout functions are learned end-to-end along with the downstream prediction task.Comment: Added empirical validatio

AZ-whiteness test: a test for uncorrelated noise on spatio-temporal graphs

We present the first whiteness test for graphs, i.e., a whiteness test for multivariate time series associated with the nodes of a dynamic graph. The statistical test aims at finding serial dependencies among close-in-time observations, as well as spatial dependencies among neighboring observations given the underlying graph. The proposed test is a spatio-temporal extension of traditional tests from the system identification literature and finds applications in similar, yet more general, application scenarios involving graph signals. The AZ-test is versatile, allowing the underlying graph to be dynamic, changing in topology and set of nodes, and weighted, thus accounting for connections of different strength, as is the case in many application scenarios like transportation networks and sensor grids. The asymptotic distribution -- as the number of graph edges or temporal observations increases -- is known, and does not assume identically distributed data. We validate the practical value of the test on both synthetic and real-world problems, and show how the test can be employed to assess the quality of spatio-temporal forecasting models by analyzing the prediction residuals appended to the graphs stream

Change Detection in Graph Streams by Learning Graph Embeddings on Constant-Curvature Manifolds

The space of graphs is often characterised by a non-trivial geometry, which complicates learning and inference in practical applications. A common approach is to use embedding techniques to represent graphs as points in a conventional Euclidean space, but non-Euclidean spaces have often been shown to be better suited for embedding graphs. Among these, constant-curvature Riemannian manifolds (CCMs) offer embedding spaces suitable for studying the statistical properties of a graph distribution, as they provide ways to easily compute metric geodesic distances. In this paper, we focus on the problem of detecting changes in stationarity in a stream of attributed graphs. To this end, we introduce a novel change detection framework based on neural networks and CCMs, that takes into account the non-Euclidean nature of graphs. Our contribution in this work is twofold. First, via a novel approach based on adversarial learning, we compute graph embeddings by training an autoencoder to represent graphs on CCMs. Second, we introduce two novel change detection tests operating on CCMs. We perform experiments on synthetic data, as well as two real-world application scenarios: the detection of epileptic seizures using functional connectivity brain networks, and the detection of hostility between two subjects, using human skeletal graphs. Results show that the proposed methods are able to detect even small changes in a graph-generating process, consistently outperforming approaches based on Euclidean embeddings.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure

Sparse Graph Learning from Spatiotemporal Time Series

Outstanding achievements of graph neural networks for spatiotemporal time series analysis show that relational constraints introduce an effective inductive bias into neural forecasting architectures. Often, however, the relational information characterizing the underlying data-generating process is unavailable and the practitioner is left with the problem of inferring from data which relational graph to use in the subsequent processing stages. We propose novel, principled - yet practical - probabilistic score-based methods that learn the relational dependencies as distributions over graphs while maximizing end-to-end the performance at task. The proposed graph learning framework is based on consolidated variance reduction techniques for Monte Carlo score-based gradient estimation, is theoretically grounded, and, as we show, effective in practice. In this paper, we focus on the time series forecasting problem and show that, by tailoring the gradient estimators to the graph learning problem, we are able to achieve state-of-the-art performance while controlling the sparsity of the learned graph and the computational scalability. We empirically assess the effectiveness of the proposed method on synthetic and real-world benchmarks, showing that the proposed solution can be used as a stand-alone graph identification procedure as well as a graph learning component of an end-to-end forecasting architecture.Comment: updated and extended versio

Taming Local Effects in Graph-based Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Spatiotemporal graph neural networks have shown to be effective in time series forecasting applications, achieving better performance than standard univariate predictors in several settings. These architectures take advantage of a graph structure and relational inductive biases to learn a single (global) inductive model to predict any number of the input time series, each associated with a graph node. Despite the gain achieved in computational and data efficiency w.r.t. fitting a set of local models, relying on a single global model can be a limitation whenever some of the time series are generated by a different spatiotemporal stochastic process. The main objective of this paper is to understand the interplay between globality and locality in graph-based spatiotemporal forecasting, while contextually proposing a methodological framework to rationalize the practice of including trainable node embeddings in such architectures. We ascribe to trainable node embeddings the role of amortizing the learning of specialized components. Moreover, embeddings allow for 1) effectively combining the advantages of shared message-passing layers with node-specific parameters and 2) efficiently transferring the learned model to new node sets. Supported by strong empirical evidence, we provide insights and guidelines for specializing graph-based models to the dynamics of each time series and show how this aspect plays a crucial role in obtaining accurate predictions.Comment: Accepted at NeurIPS 202

Graph Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions

A Survey on Graph Neural Networks for Time Series: Forecasting, Classification, Imputation, and Anomaly Detection

Time series are the primary data type used to record dynamic system measurements and generated in great volume by both physical sensors and online processes (virtual sensors). Time series analytics is therefore crucial to unlocking the wealth of information implicit in available data. With the recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs), there has been a surge in GNN-based approaches for time series analysis. Approaches can explicitly model inter-temporal and inter-variable relationships, which traditional and other deep neural network-based methods struggle to do. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of graph neural networks for time series analysis (GNN4TS), encompassing four fundamental dimensions: Forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. Our aim is to guide designers and practitioners to understand, build applications, and advance research of GNN4TS. At first, we provide a comprehensive task-oriented taxonomy of GNN4TS. Then, we present and discuss representative research works and, finally, discuss mainstream applications of GNN4TS. A comprehensive discussion of potential future research directions completes the survey. This survey, for the first time, brings together a vast array of knowledge on GNN-based time series research, highlighting both the foundations, practical applications, and opportunities of graph neural networks for time series analysis.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures, 5 table