Does Trade Facilitation Matter in Bilateral Trade ?

This paper estimates an augmented gravity model incorporating different aspects of Trade Facilitation in develop and developing countries. Trade Facilitation is defined as measures that aim at making international trade easier by eliminating administrative delays, simplifying commercial procedures, increasing transparency, security and the place of new technologies in trade. This paper provides new theoretical and empirical enhancements. On the one hand, the model is based on theoretical foundations related to monopolistic competition and border effects. The orginality of this paper is that Trade Facilitation facets are included in the model. On the other hand, the empirical achievement of the paper is that it uses different databases allowing us to take into account many features of Trade Facilitation. I use several databases coming from different sources : Doing business (World Bank) and Institutional Profiles (CEPII). My main findings show that transaction time for imports and number of documents for exports have a negative impact on trade. Our sample is split into sub-samples in order to take into account the impact of development level. It turns out that Trade Facilitation aspects have not the same impact on developed and developing countries. Finally, we conclude that some perishable (food and beverages), seasonal (wearing apparels) and high-value added products are more sensitive to import time than other products. Hard industries are rather sensitive to export documents.Trade facilitation, gravity models, border effects.

Towards an explicit modeling of trade facilitation in CGE models: evidence from Egypt

This paper develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model incorporating trade facilitation aspects. This paper’s contributions are twofold: theoretical and empirical. First, this paper attempts to model trade facilitation explicitly in a dynamic CGE model applied. On the empirical side, I estimate, not assume, the tariff equivalent of red tape and related procedures at sectoral level. I use the ad valorem tariff equivalents of time to import and to export that have been estimated in a companion paper and I take into account the cost of such a process. To do so, I modify the Exter model that is calibrated on the Egyptian social accounting matrix of 2000/2001. My main findings show that, when trade facilitation is modeled precisely, i.e. by taking into account its cost as well as the tariff equivalents of its aspects, the impact of such a process is reduced. Meanwhile, its impact remains higher than trade liberalization. Moreover, some sectors witness a significant expansion more than others, especially processed food, garments and high value added products.CGE; Trade facilitation; Egypt

Rethinking the Redistribution Effects of Trade Liberalization in Egypt: A Microsimulation Analysis

This paper aims at evaluating the liberalization policies effects on inequality in Egypt with respect to gender, region and qualification level. No previous studies in Egypt, to our best knowledge, have used the Microsimulation analysis which is a good tool that allows such an evaluation and determines the redistribution aspects of macro policies. The latter consists of linking macroeconomic changes to the micro level of the economy i.e. the individual level. A Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) is first estimated for a maximum tariff rate of 10%. And, wages and employment changes resulted from the CGE are replicated, in a second stage, into our micro data. Results show that liberalization policies have important impacts on inequalities among the Egyptian population in general. Inequality has decreased among males and females as well as among different regions of the Egyptian society but has increased among high-skilled and low-skilled workers. Results of the present research have important policy implications that have to be considered.Trade liberalization; Egypt; CGE

An overview of Structural Imbalances in Egypt

The Egyptian economy has been negatively affected by the political instability that the country has witnessed since 2011. Indeed, this instability showed the extent to which the Egyptian economy suffers from several structural imbalances that first amplified the negative effects of the revolution and then delayed its recovery. This paper analyzes both internal and external structural imbalances that characterize the Egyptian economy and presents a roadmap for future reforms. Egypt is suffering from three primary levels of internal imbalance: the sectoral level (a declining industrial sector with a low level of competitiveness), the fiscal level (between revenues and spending, current vs. productive spending), and the monetary level (non-transparent monetary policy). Externally, two structural imbalances can be identified, namely a high level of imported intermediate inputs leading to a chronic trade deficit and FDI concentrated in low-value-added. It is argued that the main reasons for such imbalances are inefficient political and economic institutions

Towards an explicit modeling of trade facilitation in CGE models: evidence from Egypt

This paper develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model incorporating trade facilitation aspects. This paper’s contributions are twofold: theoretical and empirical. First, this paper attempts to model trade facilitation explicitly in a dynamic CGE model applied. On the empirical side, I estimate, not assume, the tariff equivalent of red tape and related procedures at sectoral level. I use the ad valorem tariff equivalents of time to import and to export that have been estimated in a companion paper and I take into account the cost of such a process. To do so, I modify the Exter model that is calibrated on the Egyptian social accounting matrix of 2000/2001. My main findings show that, when trade facilitation is modeled precisely, i.e. by taking into account its cost as well as the tariff equivalents of its aspects, the impact of such a process is reduced. Meanwhile, its impact remains higher than trade liberalization. Moreover, some sectors witness a significant expansion more than others, especially processed food, garments and high value added products

On Mainstreaming Social Thinking in Macroeconomic Policies

This paper questions the degree to which social thinking is guiding social policy in Egypt. The apparent fluctuations in social spending coupled with the lack of clear purpose and benchmarks for social programs attest to a conceptual and political compromise whereby the social is at the mercy of non-social considerations. The evidence that supports our main contention is derived from an analysis that poses and answers two seminal questions: first, to what extent social policies are mainstreamed in the design of macroeconomic policies and integrated in economic and development cycles; second, to what extent the Ministry of Finance can sustain its social spending without adding further pressure on its budget. Our main findings show that social protection is still an afterthought added to macroeconomic policies. Second, with a limited fiscal space, Egypt has to work on the revenue side of the budget to generate additional room for more-comprehensive social spending (whether explicit, such as social protection programs, or implicit, such as education and health spending). Moreover, a bottom-up approach that involves different stakeholders and is based on comprehensive datasets will lead to more socially-desirable outcomes. The findings and observations made in this paper serve to guide a post-COVID-19 policy world, as social protection and spending are essential for a post-COVID social recovery, especially as the society and country come face to face with the consequences of limited social support amidst crises

Egypt beyond the crisis : medium-term challenges for sustained growth

The paper analyzes the impact of the recent global crisis in the context of the previous two decades'growth and capital flows. Growth decomposition exercises show that Egyptian growth is driven mostly by capital accumulation. To estimate the share of labor in national income, the analysis adjusts the national accounts statistics to include the compensation of self-employed and non-paid family workers. Still, the share of labor, about 30 percent, is significantly lower than previously estimated. The authors estimate the output costs of the current crisis by comparing the output trajectory that would have prevailed without the crisis with the observed and revised gross domestic product projections for the medium term. The fall in private investment was the main driver of the output cost. Even if private investment recovers its pre-crisis levels, there is a permanent loss in gross domestic product per capita of about 2 percent with respect to the scenario without the crisis. The paper shows how the shock to investment is magnified due to the capital-intensive nature of the Egyptian economy: if the economy had the traditionally-used share of labor in income (40 percent), the output loss would have been reduced by half.Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Access to Finance,Emerging Markets,Banks&Banking Reform

The Impact of Standards on Egyptian Trade: Evidence from SPS Measures

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) standards, countries are allowed to adapt regulations under the Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary (SPS) and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) agreements in order to protect human, animal and plant health as well as environment and human safety. Therefore, using an Egyptian firm-level dataset, we analyze the effects of product standards on exports. We merge this dataset with a new database on specific trade concerns raised in the TBT and SPS committees at the WTO. Our main findings show that SPS measures imposed on Egyptian exporters have a negative impact on the probability of exporting a new product to a new destination. By contrast, the intensive margin of exports is not significantly affected by such measures

Rethinking the Redistribution Effects of Trade Liberalization in Egypt: A Microsimulation Analysis

This paper aims at evaluating the liberalization policies effects on inequality in Egypt with respect to gender, region and qualification level. No previous studies in Egypt, to our best knowledge, have used the Microsimulation analysis which is a good tool that allows such an evaluation and determines the redistribution aspects of macro policies. The latter consists of linking macroeconomic changes to the micro level of the economy i.e. the individual level. A Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) is first estimated for a maximum tariff rate of 10%. And, wages and employment changes resulted from the CGE are replicated, in a second stage, into our micro data. Results show that liberalization policies have important impacts on inequalities among the Egyptian population in general. Inequality has decreased among males and females as well as among different regions of the Egyptian society but has increased among high-skilled and low-skilled workers. Results of the present research have important policy implications that have to be considered

Rethinking the Redistribution Effects of Trade Liberalization in Egypt: A Microsimulation Analysis

This paper aims at evaluating the liberalization policies effects on inequality in Egypt with respect to gender, region and qualification level. No previous studies in Egypt, to our best knowledge, have used the Microsimulation analysis which is a good tool that allows such an evaluation and determines the redistribution aspects of macro policies. The latter consists of linking macroeconomic changes to the micro level of the economy i.e. the individual level. A Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) is first estimated for a maximum tariff rate of 10%. And, wages and employment changes resulted from the CGE are replicated, in a second stage, into our micro data. Results show that liberalization policies have important impacts on inequalities among the Egyptian population in general. Inequality has decreased among males and females as well as among different regions of the Egyptian society but has increased among high-skilled and low-skilled workers. Results of the present research have important policy implications that have to be considered