Global and local sea level during the Last Interglacial: A probabilistic assessment

The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage, with polar temperatures likely 3-5 C warmer than today, serves as a partial analogue for low-end future warming scenarios. Based upon a small set of local sea level indicators, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inferred that LIG global sea level (GSL) was about 4-6 m higher than today. However, because local sea levels differ from GSL, accurately reconstructing past GSL requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we compile an extensive database of sea level indicators and apply a novel statistical approach that couples Gaussian process regression of sea level to Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling of geochronological errors. Our analysis strongly supports the hypothesis that LIG GSL was higher than today, probably peaking at 6-9 m. Our results highlight the sea level hazard associated with even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.Comment: Preprint version of what has since been published in Natur

The first hominin of Europe

The earliest hominin occupation of Europe is one of the most debated topics in palaeoanthropology. However, the purportedly oldest of the Early Pleistocene sites in Eurasia lack precise age control and contain stone tools rather than human fossil remains(1-5). Here we report the discovery of a human mandible associated with an assemblage of Mode 1 lithic tools and faunal remains bearing traces of hominin processing, in stratigraphic level TE9 at the site of the Sima del Elefante, Atapuerca, Spain(6-8). Level TE9 has been dated to the Early Pleistocene ( approximately 1.2 - 1.1 Myr), based on a combination of palaeomagnetism, cosmogenic nuclides and biostratigraphy. The Sima del Elefante site thus emerges as the oldest, most accurately dated record of human occupation in Europe, to our knowledge. The study of the human mandible suggests that the first settlement of Western Europe could be related to an early demographic expansion out of Africa. The new evidence, with previous findings in other Atapuerca sites ( level TD6 from Gran Dolina(9-13)), also suggests that a speciation event occurred in this extreme area of the Eurasian continent during the Early Pleistocene, initiating the hominin lineage represented by the TE9 and TD6 hominins.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62855/1/nature06815.pd

Survival and long-term maintenance of tertiary trees in the Iberian Peninsula during the Pleistocene. First record of Aesculus L.

The Italian and Balkan peninsulas have been places traditionally highlighted as Pleistocene glacial refuges. The Iberian Peninsula, however, has been a focus of controversy between geobotanists and palaeobotanists as a result of its exclusion from this category on different occasions. In the current paper, we synthesise geological, molecular, palaeobotanical and geobotanical data that show the importance of the Iberian Peninsula in the Western Mediterranean as a refugium area. The presence of Aesculus aff. hippocastanum L. at the Iberian site at Cal Guardiola (Tarrasa, Barcelona, NE Spain) in the Lower– Middle Pleistocene transition helps to consolidate the remarkable role of the Iberian Peninsula in the survival of tertiary species during the Pleistocene. The palaeodistribution of the genus in Europe highlights a model of area abandonment for a widely-distributed species in the Miocene and Pliocene, leading to a diminished and fragmentary presence in the Pleistocene and Holocene on the southern Mediterranean peninsulas. Aesculus fossils are not uncommon within the series of Tertiary taxa. Many appear in the Pliocene and suffer a radical impoverishment in the Lower–Middle Pleistocene transition. Nonetheless some of these tertiary taxa persisted throughout the Pleistocene and Holocene up to the present in the Iberian Peninsula. Locating these refuge areas on the Peninsula is not an easy task, although areas characterised by a sustained level of humidity must have played an predominant role