spotlight europe 2008/08, July 2008: Prospects for a new EU-Russia-Agreement

The latest EU-Russia-Summit on 27th June 2008 marks a breakthrough in their relations. The planned negotiations on a new strategic partnership between the two actors were stalled for nearly two years. Now all member states have agreed on a broad negotiating mandate for the Commission. After the Irish 'No' to the Lisbon Treaty the talks with Russia become a test case for the EU´s capacity to act as a global player

spotlight europe 2008/01: Den Stau auflösen: Die EU und Russland 2008 = Breaking the stalemate: The EU and Russia in 2008

In den Beziehungen zwischen der EU und Russland knirscht es. Ein neu-es Partnerschaftsabkommen ist bisher nicht zustande gekommen, die jüngsten Parlamentswahlen boten reichlich Anlass zur Kritik. Und doch gibt es mit dem EU-Reformvertrag und einer neuen polnischen Regierung erste Zeichen der Hoffnung. Die slowenische Ratspräsidentschaft muss nun das neue Partnerschaftsabkommen auf den Weg bringen

Putins zweite Amtszeit

Die russische Entwicklung mit der hohen Popularität ihres Präsidenten und dem beachtlichen Wirtschaftswachstum darf nicht darüber hinwegtäuschen, dass zahlreiche politische, soziale und ökonomische Probleme ungelöst geblieben sind. Die Phase günstiger Rohstoffpreise und die Stärke der "Machtvertikale" sind nicht genutzt worden, um eine durchgreifende Modernisierung durchzusetzen. Bis 2008 ist ein Fortschreiten von Reformen kaum zu erwarten, eher ein Festhalten am Status quo

Regionale Strukturen der Sicherheitspolitik in der GUS

'Nach der Auflösung des Warschauer Pakts und dem Zusammenbruch der Sowjetunion ist es ein zentrales Anliegen Rußlands geblieben, die Einheitlichkeit des Verteidigungsraumes auf dem Territorium der ehemaligen UdSSR zu bewahren. Obwohl alle Nachfolgestaaten der UdSSR - mit Ausnahme der baltischen Staaten - in der einen oder anderen Form in der am 21. Dezember 1991 ins Leben gerufenen Gemeinschaft Unabhängiger Staaten (GUS) mitarbeiten, ist es bisher nicht gelungen, einen die gesamte Gemeinschaft umfassenden Sicherheitsrahmen aufzubauen. In diesem Bericht wird versucht, den 'kollektiven Sicherheitsrahmen' der GUS unter den sonstigen sicherheitsrelevanten Instrumenten der Gemeinschaft einzuordnen, des weiteren wird die Tendenz zur Bilateralisierung und Regionalisierung der Sicherheitszusammenarbeit zwischen Rußland und den GUS-Staaten untersucht und es wird die Entwicklung des Diskurses über 'kollektive Sicherheit' in der GUS abgehandelt.' (Autorenreferat)'Following the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the break-up the Soviet Union it has remained one of Russia's central concerns to preserve a common defense area on the territory of the former USSR. Although all the successor states to the USSR - with the exception of the Baltic states - are participating in one way or another in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which came into being on 21 December 1991, it has not yet proved possible to establish a security framework the embraces the whole commonwelth. This report will seek first of all to place the CIS 'collective security framwork' in the context of other security-relevant instruments of the commonwealth. It will then examine the tendencies towards bilateralisation and regionalisation discernible in security cooperation between Russia and the CIS states and discuss developments in the discourse on 'collective security' in the CIS.' (author's abstract

Moskau will das Verhältnis zum Westen neu verhandeln

Die russische Außenpolitik scheint sich im Kreis zu drehen. Jeder neue Präsident beginnt damit, das Verhältnis zum Westen zu betonen beziehungsweise zu reparieren, um es am Ende seiner Amtszeit(en) erneut zur Disposition und auf die Probe zu stellen

The Arctic defense postures in the context of the Russia-West confrontation

In 2015–2017, in most Arctic countries, a planned review of defense policy was carried out. It coincided with the Ukrainian crisis, the aggravation of relations between Russia and the West and the active phase of the implementation of a large-scale program of military construction in the Russian Arctic. An analysis of the decisions made during this period allows us to judge to what extent the confrontation between Russia and the West has affected the military and political situation in the region and how it can affect it in the foreseeable future. For this purpose, the documents of the strategic military-political planning of the Arctic countries adopted in recent years are compared with their earlier plans for military construction in the Arctic. The analysis allows to conclude with a high degree of certainty that in the short term the military and political situation in the region will remain stable and predictable. The Arctic countries have not reconsidered their previous calm assessments of military threats and modest military development programs in the region. The main attention of the Arctic states - members of NATO is concentrated on the Arctic not that much as it is for the development of the military-political situation in the Baltic and in the North Atlantic. However, the longer the current crisis in the relations between Russia and the West goes on, the more likely that in the medium and long-term perspective, the military and political situation in the Arctic will change for the worse

spotlight Europe, 2008/01, January 2008: Breaking the stalemate: The EU and Russia in 2008

Relations between the European Union and Russia are showing clear signs of strain. A new partnership agreement has not materialized, and the recent parliamentary elections led to a great deal of criticism. Despite all this, the EU Reform Treaty and the new Polish government provide a glimmer of hope. The Slovenian EU Presidency must now smooth the way for the new partnership agreement

Afghanistan: Mission Impossible? ESF Working Paper No. 25, April 2007

Some experts hold that 2007 will be a 'make or break' year for international efforts in Afghanistan. This collection of European Security Forum papers brings together the views of experts on what is needed to secure and consolidate peace in the country as well as the restive region. In his essay, Julian Lindley-French (Centre for Applied Policy, Munich and Defence Academy of the UK) makes clear what he believes to be at stake: whether the West has the resolve and the capacity to act as a global provider of security. Peter Bergen (New America Foundation in Washington, D.C.) analyses the return of the Taliban and outlines a strategy to counter this development. Andrei Zagorski (MGIMO-University, Moscow) draws relevant lessons from the Soviet experience in Afghanistan for the current international intervention. Additionally, there are contributions by two experts from the region. Hekmat Karzai (Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, Kabul) provides thoughtful insights into the nature of the Taliban insurgency and the rise suicide terrorism. Ismail Khan (The Dawn Group of Newspapers, Peshawar) focuses on the situation in the border region and the difficult role that Pakistan is playing in Afghan stability. François Heisbourg, Chairman of the European Security Forum, sums up

spotlight europe 2009/10, October 2009: After Soccer Diplomacy: The Turkish-Armenian Relations

The protocols on the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia were signed in Zurich on 10 October 2009. Neither of the two issued a statement after the signing ceremony, since it could have gone beyond the finely balanced contents of the protocols. What are the expectations, hopes and fears associated with the reopening of the border and the normalization of relations? A report from four capitals and the EU

spotlight europe 2008/08, July 2008: Neues im Osten: Erwartungen an ein neues EU-Russland-Abkommen = Prospects for a new EU-Russia-Agreement

Der jüngste EU-Russland Gipfel am 27. Juni 2008 markiert einen Durchbruch. Die Verhandlungen über eine neue strategische Partnerschaft können beginnen. Endlich haben sich die EU-Mitgliedstaaten auf ein weit reichendes Mandat für die Kommission verständigt. Jetzt wird sich zeigen, ob die EU wie ein globaler Akteur agieren kann