Modelling and Forecasting Turkish Residential Electricity Demand

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57 respectively and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38 respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of the implementation of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of energy market structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity consumption will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008.Turkish Residential Electricity Demand, Structural Time Series Model (STSM), Future Scenarios, Energy Demand Modelling and Forecasting.

Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand: An Outlook to 2020

This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and an underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and -0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.Turkish Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand; Structural Time Series Model (STSM); Energy Demand Modelling and Future Scenarios.

Industrial Electricity Demand for Turkey: A Structural Time Series Analysis

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish industrial electricity consumption, industrial value added and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish industrial electricity demand. To achieve this, an industrial electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. In addition to identifying the size and significance of the price and industrial value added (output) elasticities, this technique also uncovers the electricity Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) for the Turkish industrial sector and is, as far as is known, the first attempt to do this. The results suggest that output and real electricity prices and a UEDT all have an important role to play in driving Turkish industrial electricity demand. Consequently, they should all be incorporated when modelling Turkish industrial electricity demand and the estimated UEDT should arguably be considered in future energy policy decisions concerning the Turkish electricity industry. The output and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.15 and -0.16 respectively, with an increasing (but at a decreasing rate) UEDT and based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish industrial electricity demand will be somewhere between 97 and 148 TWh by 2020.Turkish Industrial Electricity Demand; Energy Demand Modelling and Forecasting; Structural Time Series Model (STSM); Future Scenarios.

Structural Times Series Modelling of Energy Demand.

The derived demand for energy comes from the desire to consume energy services such as lighting, heating, and transportation. Consequently, in addition to the economic drivers (income and price), there are number of exogenous factors that drive energy demand. This research therefore uses the Structural Time Series Model to estimate energy demand relationships for Turkish electricity, OECD-Europe natural gas and US per capita gasoline and these relationships are then used to project future demand. The main findings are: •Estimated long run Turkish industrial energy demand output and price elasticities of 0. 15 and -0. 16 respectively, with a generally increasing UEDT. Estimated long-run Turkish residential electricity demand income and price elasticities of 1. 57 and -0. 38 with highly stochastic estimated UEDT with increasing (energy using) and decreasing (energy saving) periods. Estimated Turkish aggregate electricity demand long run income and price elasticities of 0. 17 and -0. 11 respectively with a generally upward sloping (energy using) estimated UEDT, but at a generally decreasing rate. - Based on these estimates it is projected that for Turkey in 2020 industrial electricity demand will be between 97 and 148 TWh; residential electricity demand will be between 48 and 80 TWh; and aggregate electricity demand will be between 259 and 368 TWh. •Estimated long run OECD-Europe natural gas demand income and price elasticities of 0. 95 and -0. 18 respectively with an increasing and decreasing an estimated UEDT over the estimation period. - Based on this relationship OECD-Europe natural gas demand is projected to be between 442 and 531 mtoe in 2020. •Estimated long run US per capita gasoline demand income, price maximum, price recovery and price cut elasticities of around 0. 42, -0. 31, -0. 17, and zero respectively with a generally increasing estimated UEDT from 1949 to 1976, but generally declining from 1977 to 1996, and generally increasing from 1997 until 2008. - Based on this relationship US per capita gasoline demand is projected to be between 10 and 13 barrels (1590 litres and 2067 litres) in 2020

Structural times series modelling of energy demand

The derived demand for energy comes from the desire to consume energy services such as lighting, heating, and transportation. Consequently, in addition to the economic drivers (income and price), there are number of exogenous factors that drive energy demand. This research therefore uses the Structural Time. Series Model to estimate energy demand relationships for Turkish electricity, OECD-Europe natural gas and US per capita gasoline and these relationships are then used to project future demand. The main findings are: • Estimated long run Turkish industrial energy demand output and price elasticities of 0.15 and -0.16 respectively, with a generally increasing UEDT. Estimated long-run Turkish residential electricity demand income and price elasticities of 1.57 and -0.38 with highly stochastic estimated UEDT with increasing (energy using) and decreasing (energy saving) periods. Estimated Turkish aggregate electricity demand long run income and price elasticities of 0.17 and -0.11 respectively with a generally upward sloping (energy using) estimated UEDT, but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on these estimates it is projected that for Turkey in 2020 industrial electricity demand will be between 97 and 148 TWh; residential electricity demand will be between 48 and 80 TWh; and aggregate electricity demand will be between 259 and 368 TWh. • Estimated long run OECD-Europe natural gas demand income and price elasticities of 0.95 and -0.18 respectively with an increasing and decreasing an estimated UEDT over the estimation period. Based on this relationship OECD-Europe natural gas demand is projected to be between 442 and 531 mtoe in 2020. • Estimated long run US per capita gasoline demand income, price maximum, price recovery and price cut elasticities of around 0.42, -0.31, -0.17, and zero respectively with a generally increasing estimated UEDT from 1949 to 1976, but generally declining from 1977 to 1996, and generally increasing from 1997 until 2008. Based on this relationship US per capita gasoline demand is projected to be between 10 and 13 barrels (1590 litres and 2067 litres) in 2020.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of Turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57, respectively, and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38, respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008.Turkish residential electricity demand Structural time series model (STSM) Energy demand modelling and future scenarios