Using remotely sensed data to modify wind forcing in operational storm surge forecasting

Storm surges are abnormal coastal sea level events caused by meteorological conditions such as tropical cyclones. They have the potential to cause widespread loss of life and financial damage and have done so on many occasions in the past. Accurate and timely forecasts are necessary to help mitigate the risks posed by these events. Operational forecasting models use discretisations of the governing equations for fluid flow to model the sea surface, which is then forced by surface stresses derived from a model wind and pressure fields. The wind fields are typically idealised and generated parametrically. In this study, wind field datasets derived from remotely sensed data are used to modify the model parametric wind forcing and investigate potential improvement to operational forecasting. We examine two methods for using analysis wind fields derived from remotely sensed observations of three hurricanes. Our first method simply replaces the parametric wind fields with its corresponding analysis wind field for a period of time. Our second method does this also but takes it further by attempting to use some of the information present in the analysis wind field to estimate future wind fields. We find that our methods do yield some forecast improvement, most notably for our second method where we get improvements of up to 0.29 m on average. Importantly, the spatial structure of the surge is changed in some places such that locations that were previously forecast small surges had their water levels increased. These results were validated by tide gauge data

Observations of landfalling wave spectra during Hurricane Ike

Observations of wave properties during Hurricane Ike are presented for eight temporary gauges in mean depths of 8.7-15.8 m over a 360-km section of coastline. These gauges cover both the strong (left) and weak (right) sides of the tropical cyclone, with one gauge immediately adjacent to landfall. Maximum significant wave heights are large over the entire section of the coast and reached 5.8 m near landfall but were at some locations significantly limited by the finite depths with significant wave height-to-depth ratios nearing 0.5 at landfall. Nondirectional spectral shapes changed sharply over the course of the storm, from strongly peaked profiles before landfall to much flatter, sometimes multipeaked, spectra as the hurricane came ashore. After landfall, the spectra on Ike's strong side reverted to the sharply peaked form, whereas the weak side spectra were broader and often had multiple peaks. No waves during the storm appeared to be in equilibrium with local winds and water depths, although heights on the strong side of the storm were close

A Novel Resident-as-Teacher Curriculum to Improve Residents’ Integration Into the Clinic

Introduction Graduate medical education depends on senior residents to facilitate peer education. Previous studies have described the benefits of resident-as-teacher (RaT) curricula; however, means of assessing these interventions have proven difficult. The purpose of this study was to provide meaningful evaluation of a novel RaT curriculum and scribing activity. Methods Didactic sessions on teaching skills were presented in July, 2017. First- and third-year residents then alternated scribing for each other for 4 weeks within the outpatient clinic to allow for near-peer educational exchange. Residents’ attitudes toward teaching and perceptions of teaching abilities were assessed using preand postintervention surveys. Independent reviewers reviewed charts completed by PGY-1 residents during the scribing activity, and compared them to charts from the previous academic year. Results All first-year (n=12; 100%) and third-year (n=10; 100%) residents participated in the study. After participating in the RaT curriculum, residents were more comfortable giving feedback to other residents and felt better prepared to teach and assess the effectiveness of their teaching. Although there was no significant difference in ratings between the 2016 and 2017 charts, reviewers noted that the 2017 charts contained fewer obvious omissions, and third-year residents felt the charts were completed in a timelier manner. First-year residents saw 16% more patients in 2017 than they had in 2016, which expedited integration into the clinic. Conclusion This innovative RaT curriculum with scribing activity improved residents’ teaching and communication skills and provided first-year residents with a more efficient and meaningful orientation into the outpatient clinic

Building destruction from waves and surge on the Bolivar Peninsula during hurricane Ike

The Bolivar Peninsula in Texas was severely impacted by Hurricane Ike with strong winds, large waves, widespread inundation, and severe damage. This paper examines the wave and surge climate on Bolivar during the storm and the consequent survival and destruction of buildings. Emphasis is placed on differences between buildings that survived (with varying degrees of damage) and buildings that were completely destroyed. Building elevations are found to be the primary indicator of survival for areas with large waves. Here, buildings that were sufficiently elevated above waves and surge suffered relatively little structural damage, while houses at lower elevations were impacted by large waves and generally completely destroyed. In many areas, the transition from destruction to survival was over a very small elevation range of around 0.5 m. In areas where waves were smaller, survival was possible at much lower elevations. Higher houses that were not inundated still survived, but well-built houses at lower elevations could also survive as the waves were not large enough to cause structural damage. However, the transition height where waves became damaging could not be determined from this study

Inundation and destruction on the Bolivar Peninsula during Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike was one of the most destructive storms in US history, and caused catastrophic damage to the Bolivar Peninsula, Texas, with over 4.7m measured surge at the Gulf of Mexico shoreline. This surge began unusually early, reaching 2.5m at 25 hours before landfall while winds were both weak and shore-parallel. The strong forerunner surge resulted from Coriolis effects on the wind-driven alongshelf current, and occurred previously in the similarly destructive 1900 and 1915 Galveston Hurricanes. In onshore areas with strong wave action, damage was near-total to buildings whose flooring systems could be reached by wave crests, while slightly more elevated buildings survived almost unscathed. There was much less of a correlation between survival and elevation in areas with small waves