What determines the growth of services sector in Pakistan? A comparison of ARDL bound testing and time varying parametric estimation with general to specific approach

Abstract. This empirical study followed time varying parametric approach (Kalman Filter) and auto regression distributed lag (ARDL) with general to specific approach to find out relevant macroeconomic determinants of Pakistan’s services sector’s growth. To our best of knowledge, no author has made such study that employed these estimation techniques to find out determinants of services sector growth in Pakistan while employing general to specific approach. Current study bridges this gap. Annual data was taken from World Development Indicators (2014) during period 1976-2014. Main findings of the study are that rolling regression estimates of explanatory variables justify the use of Kalman filtering approach. Results show that inflation has negative effect on services sector output growth in case of TVP approach. This result does match with ARDL results.  Net foreign direct investment has positive and significant effect on services sector output growth in both techniques of estimation. Gross national expenditures with positive effect are the relevant significant determinants of services sector output growth at five percent significance level in case of TVP approach while relationship was insignificant in case of ARDL estimation. Impact of remittances received on services sector growth is negative in case of time varying parametric approach. This result is different from ARDL results where relationship is positive and significant at five percent level of significance. All the one step ahead state vectors confirmed the stability of models in case of time varying parametric approach. Cumulative sum of recursive residuals (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of recursive residuals square (CUSUMQ) also confirmed the stability of results of auto regression distributed lag. Based on these empirical findings, we conclude that government should focus on service sector growth augmenting factors while formulating any policy relevant to the concerned sector. Keywords. Services sector, Kalman filter, Rolling regression.JEL. C22, O11, O40

Factors affecting the services sector growth in Pakistan: A time varying parametric approach

Abstract. This empirical study followed time varying parametric approach (Kalman Filter) to find out relevant determinants of Pakistan’s services sector’s growth. To our best of knowledge, no author has made such study that could collect a number of variables from existing empirical literature and capture the impact of structural changes on relevant determinants of services sector growth in Pakistan while employing Kalman Filtering approach. Current study bridges this gap. Annual data was taken from World Development Indicators (2014) during period 1976-2014. Main findings of the study are that rolling regression estimates of explanatory variables justify the use of Kalman filtering approach. The state space Results show that foreign direct investment and gross national expenditures are positive and significant determinants of services sector growth while inflation, domestic credit to private sector, gross fixed capital formation, and remittances received and trade openness have negative impact on services sector growth. One step ahead graph inflation, domestic credit to private sector, foreign direct investment, gross national expenditures, gross fixed capital formation, remittances received and trade openness indicate that model estimated was stable as critical bounds(dotted line) in graph 2 are not crossed by central line. Based on empirical findings, it is recommended the concerned authorities to augment gross national expenditures and foreign direct investment to achieve long run services sector growth for better economic growth in country.Keywords. Services sector, Kalman filter, Rolling regression, Inflation, Foreign direct investment.JEL. F21, F40, N57, O13

The Socioeconomic Impact of Mirani Dam in District Kech, Balochistan, Pakistan

The purpose of the study was to know the socioeconomic characteristics of sampled households before andafter the construction of Mirani dam right and left bank canal, which were completed in 2006. The distribution ofirrigation water was initiated in 2008 for the cultivation of land. Due to construction of dam, production of all majorcrops has increased significantly. A representative sample of 8 distributaries and 371 farm households (211 from RBCand 160 from LBC) were selected for collecting primary information from the field. According to respondents afterconstruction of both canals their income level, consumption expenditure, and saving increased. The result of this studyrevealed that the economic status of the sampled household changes after Mirani dam right and left bank canal. Withthe increase of income now they are sending more children in school than before. The average number of goats beforeMirani Dam Right and Left Bank Canal were 5.96 TLU with standard error 0.54 and after it, increased to 24.94 withstandard error 1.85. The average number of camels before Mirani dam right and left bank canal was 0.11, Sheep 0.06,Cow 0.20 and the Donkey 0.09 respectively. Whereas the average number of the camel increased to 0.32, Sheep 1.27,Cow 0.20, and Donkey 0.56 respectively. Overall after construction of the dam the production of crops, number oflivestock, dead stocks, income level, expenditure, savings, number of pucca houses and number of schools goingchildren increased significantly because socioeconomic condition of the people in the study area considerablyimproved

Market Varying Conditional Risk-Return Relationship

Unlike previous studies conducted on Pakistan, this article attempts to test the validity of conditional relationship between beta and cross-sectional returns of individual securities listed in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE), wherein the up and down market periods are separated. The risk-return relationship is also tested using the conventional CAPM to compare the results of both models. The return on market portfolio and risk free asset is proxied by KSE-100 share index return and three months T-bill. Fama and McBeth (1973) and Pettengill, et al. (1995) methods are used to test conventional and conditional risk-return relationship, respectively. The analysis is performed on individual stocks of thirty companies over the period 2004 to 2012. Findings indicate a consistent and significant positive risk return relationship in up market periods where market excess returns are positive; whereas, an inverse risk-return relationship is not proved in down market periods where market excess returns are negative. Furthermore, the study finds no support for symmetry between up and down market periods. The major implication of the analysis is that beta can be a useful measure of risk only in up markets periods

Comorbidity of COVID-19 related Fatalities in Tertiary Care Hospitals of Rawalpindi, Pakistan

Objectives: To assess the COVID-19 associated fatalities with respect to demographics, comorbidity, critical illness, and length of hospital stay in tertiary care hospitals. Subjects & Methods: A retrospective hospital data-based research was done among 216 COVID-19 associated mortalities registered in 4 tertiary care hospitals Holy Family Hospital (HFH), Benazir Bhutto Hospital (BBH), District Head Quarters Hospital (DHQ) and Rawalpindi Institute of Urology & Transplantation (RIU & T) affiliated with Rawalpindi Medical University from 29th March-15th June 2020. The data was gathered by consecutive sampling pertinent to demographics, hospital stay, comorbidity, critical illness, and ventilator or oxygen support. The length of hospital stay among fatalities with and without comorbidity was compared by an independent sample z-test. Data were analyzed by using SPSS version 25.0. Results: Of the total 216 COVID-19 related mortalities, 150(69.4%) were males and 66(30.6%) were females. The mean age of fatalities was 55.66 ± 13.97 years. About 76.7% of dying males were 41-70 years old while 56.1% of females dying of COVID-19 were 41-60 years old. Most (60.8%) of study subjects had hypertension followed by diabetes (53.8%), Ischemic Heart Disease (17.5%), and respiratory disorders (12.3%). About 75% of the critically ill patients needed a ventilator for respiratory support. Length of hospital stay was determined to have a statistically insignificant association (P > 0.10) with the presence or absence of comorbidity among COVID-19 patients. Critical illness had a highly significant association (P < 0.000) with ventilator support among COVID-19 related mortalities. Conclusion: People 41-70 years should preferably adopt stringent precautions for protection against COVID-19. Comorbid states chiefly hypertension, diabetes, cardiac and respiratory diseases need special consideration amid COVID-19 pandemic to abstain from adverse health outcomes

Effect of Intravenous Phloroglucinol Injections upon duration of Active First Stage of Labor

Objective: In our part of the world poverty and illiteracy has adversely affected our core objective of pregnancy i.e. healthy mother and healthy child. Exploring the role of a routinely used drug in reducing the duration of labor could be a breakthrough. Present study was planned accordingly to evaluate the effect of phloroglucinol (PHL). Materials and Methods: It was a Randomized controlled trial conducted at Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology, Combined Military Hospital, Bahawalpur from January 2019 to June 2019. This study included 60 cases of age 18 to 40 years, having singleton pregnancy and in active first stage of uncomplicated labor. Patients with history of multiple pregnancies, obstetrical and surgical complications and cardiorespiratory diseases were excluded. The cases were placed randomly into Group A & Group B and given intravenous PHL and a placebo respectively. After this, duration of the first stage of labor was recorded in minutes from when there was 3-4 cm cervical dilatation with regular uterine contractions to complete cervical dilation i.e. 10 cm and descent of the presenting fetal part. Results: Mean duration of active first stage of labor in experimental group A (230.20 ± 52.96 minutes) was significantly higher than that of control group B (345.30 ± 50.57 minutes). Conclusion: This study concluded that intravenous PHL has efficiently reduced the duration of active first stage of labor in these randomly selected nulliparous and multiparous women. PHL is a useful drug serving the purpose of a spasmolytic, analgesic and labor augmentation at the same time

Distribution of the invasive pathogenic isolates in blood culture with their antimicrobial susceptibility pattern in diagnostic lab in Karachi

Objective: To determine the frequent bacterial pathogens causing blood stream infections in various age brackets, and to discover their antibiotic susceptibility pattern. Method: The retrospective, descriptive, observational, cross-sectional study was conducted at the microbiology laboratory of Patel Hospital, Karachi, and comprised positive blood culture bacterial isolates analysed between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2019. Standard microbiological techniques were employed for the identification and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Data was analysed using SPSS 20. Results: Of the 3450 specimen, 1243(36%) were positive; 668(53.7%) from male and 575(46.3%) from female subjects, and gram-positive 771(62%) and gram-negative 472(38%). Salmonella typhi was the most common pathogen 139(11.1) among gram-negative organisms, followed by acinetobacter species 103(8.2%), escherichia coli 96(7.7%) and klebsiella species 42(3.4%). Among gram-positive bacteria, the predominant isolates were staphylococcus epidermidis 650(52%), staphylococcus aureus 67(5.4%) and enterococci 28(2.3%). Linezolid (99.8%), vancomycin (99%) and chloramphenicol (69%) were found to be the most sensitive antibiotics among gram-positive cocci. Meropenem (60%), amikacin (46%) and gentamicin (40%) were the most sensitive antibiotics for multidrug resistant gram-negative bacteria. Conclusion: The identification of frequent bacterial pathogens in blood cultures of patients may guide clinicians in proper empirical selection of antibiotics in patients with bacteremia. Key Words: Blood stream infection, BSI, Antibiotic susceptibility, AST, Bacteriological profile, Multi-drug resistance, MDR

Characteristics and clinical features of cauda equina syndrome: insights from a study on 256 patients

Objective: To determine the frequency, clinical presentation, and etiological factors of cauda equina syndrome (CES). Materials and method: This retrospective study was done on 256 participants, and aimed to analyze the frequency and patterns of clinical presentation in suspected cases of CES. The inclusion criteria included participants aged 18 or older with medical records available for review and having red-flagged symptoms for CES. The study collected information on various factors such as age, gender, confirmation of CES on MRI, neurological deficits, etiological factors, duration of symptoms, and more. The data collected was analyzed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression to identify significant variables between MRI-proven CES and suspected CES. Results: The mean age was 58.05 ± 19.26 years, with 151 females (58.98%) and 105 males (41.02%). The majority (50.78%) had a neurological deficit, while other symptoms included difficulty initiating micturition or impaired sensation of urinary flow (17.58%), loss of sensation of rectal fullness (3.12%), urinary or faecal incontinence (35.16%), bilateral sciatica (21.88%), neurological symptoms in the lower limbs (25.00%), anaesthesia or any leg weakness (24.22%), and bilateral sciatica as the predominant symptom (21.88%). Symptoms were chronic in 47.27% and acute in 21.88%. The odds of MRI-proven CES increase by 3% per year of age. Neurological deficit was strongly associated with MRI-proven CES (OR = 14.97), while loss of sensation of rectal fullness increased the odds by 10-fold (OR = 10.62). Conclusion: CES can present with various symptoms, including the bilateral neurological deficit, urinary and faecal incontinence, and bilateral sciatica, with age, severe bilateral neurological deficit, and loss of sensation of rectal fullness being associated with MRI-proven CES. Early diagnosis and treatment are crucial for better outcomes