Monetary stability and financial development in Sub-Saharan countries

Abstract We analyze the interrelation between monetary stability and financial structure in 20 Sub-Saharan economies. Using a panel data set we estimate the impact of monetary stability and financial development on income per capita. Special interest is given to the conditions of the so-called CFA-countries, that have a fixed exchange rate vis-à-vis the French Franc. Is the impact of the financial system development in these countries bigger than in non-CFA countries? We measure monetary uncertainty using an auxiliary (G)ARCH model of monthly inflation. For financial development we take both the role of M2 as credit to the private sector into account. Our sample covers the years 1970-1997. We estimate growth regressions in three different forms: cross-section, interval, and a pooled model. We do find that inflationary uncertainty is relevant for growth of GDP per capita. Financial development is relevant in the low data-frequency models. The differences between CFA and non-CFA countries become apparent in the interval and pooled models. CFA-countries seem to rely more on credit in the interval model. Moreover, in the years 1985-1993 non-CFA countries seemed to suffer more from inflationary uncertainty.

Pensions, Debt and Inflation Risk in a Monetary Union

This paper investigates the international spillovers of government debt and the associated risk of inflation within a monetary union when countries have different pension systems. I use a stochastic two-country two-period overlapping-generations model, where one country has PAYG pensions and the other country has funded pensions. The paper shows that the PAYG country can shift part of its long-term debt burden to the funded country. Moreover, the PAYG country gains from unexpected inflation at the cost of the funded country. In response to these conflicting interests about inflation, inflation risk may rise with the level of debt in the PAYG country. Higher inflation risk harms both countries. Actually, in contrast to the debt burden, the PAYG country cannot share the negative effects of a rise in inflation risk with the funded country. The scenarios analysed might be especially relevant for the years to come

Retirement Flexibility and Portfolio Choice

This paper explores the interaction between retirement flexibility and portfolio choice in an overlapping-generations model. We analyse this interaction both in a partial-equilibrium and general-equilibrium setting. Retirement flexibility is often seen as a hedge against capital-market risks which justifies more risky asset portfolios. We show, however, that this positive relationship between risk taking and retirement flexibility is weakened� and under some conditions even turned around, if not only capital-market risks but also productivity risks are considered. Productivity risk in combination with a high elasticity of substitution between consumption and leisure creates a positive correlation between asset returns and labour income, reducing the willingness of consumers to bear risk. Moreover, it turns out that general-equilibrium effects can either increase or decrease the equity exposure, depending on the degree of substitutability between consumption and leisure. Key words: retirement (in) flexibility, portfolio allocation, risk, intratemporal substitution elasticity JEL codes: E21, G11, J26 �

The International Spillover Effects of Pension Reform

This paper explores how pension reforms in countries with PAYG schemes affect countries with funded systems. We use a two-country two-period overlapping-generations model, where the countries only differ in their pension systems. We distinguish between the case where a reform potentially leads to a Pareto improvement in the PAYG country, and where this is impossible. In the latter case the funded country shares both in the costs and the benefits of the reform. However, if a Pareto-improving pension reform is feasible in the PAYG country, a Pareto improvement in the funded country is not guaranteed.international spillover effects, pension reform

Business Cycle Fluctuations and Private Savings in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

We investigate the cyclicality of the private savings to GDP ratio for a panel of 19 OECD countries over the period 1971-2009. We find robust evidence that the private savings ratio is countercyclical. Three theories unambiguously predict a higher private savings ratio during recessions: a Ricardian offset effect, the presence of credit constraints, and precautionary savings. We find evidence only for the latter theory. Our estimations take into account a large number of econometric complications: persistence in the savings ratio, endogeneity of the regressors, cross-country parameter heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, stationarity issues, omitted variables, and instrument strength

Flexible Pension Take-Up in Social Security

Abstract: This paper studies the redistribution and welfare effects of increasing the flexibility of individual pension take-up. We use an overlapping-generations model with Beveridgean pay-as-you-go pensions, where individuals differ in ability and life span. We find that introducing flexible pension take-up can induce a Pareto improvement when the initial pension scheme contains within-cohort redistribution and induces early retirement. Such a Pareto-improving reform entails the application of uniform actuarial adjustment of pension entitlements based on average life expectancy. Introducing actuarial non-neutrality that stimulates later retirement further improves such a flexibility reform.