Successive one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with incremental filtering algorithm for nonlinear economic time series

We propose a successive one-sided Hodrick-Prescott (SOHP) filter from multiple time scale decomposition perspective to derive trend estimate for a time series. The idea is to apply the one-sided HP (OHP) filter recursively on the updated cyclical component to extract the trend residual on multiple time scales, thereby to improve the trend estimate. To address the issue of optimization with a moving horizon as that of the SOHP filter, we present an incremental HP filtering algorithm, which greatly simplifies the involved inverse matrix operation and reduces the computational demand of the basic HP filtering. Actually, the new algorithm also applies effectively to other HP-type filters, especially for large-size or expanding data scenario. Numerical examples on real economic data show the better performance of the SOHP filter in comparison with other known HP-type filters

Adsorption Properties of Copper (II) Ion From Aqueous Solution by Starch-Grafted Polyacrylamide and Crosslinked Starch-Grafted Polyacrylamide

Starch-grafted polyacrylamide (SA) and cross-linked starch-grafted polyacrylamide (CSA) had been synthesized via grafting polymerization from corn starch and used as adsorbents for the removal of Cu(II) ion from aqueous solution. The equilibrium, kinetics and thermodynamics of adsorption processes of SA and CSA were investigated and compared. It was found that the adsorption capacity of Cu(II) of SA and CSA could reach the maximum within 60 min when the pH was 6. The adsorption kinetics of CSA and SA for Cu(II) was favorably described by the pseudo-second-order kinetic model and the adsorption isotherm was described well with the Freundlich isotherm model. Thermodynamic studies indicated that the adsorption was a spontaneous and endothermic process with increased entropy, and the rise of temperature would benefit the adsorption; the enthalpy change(ΔH), the entropy change (ΔS) and free energy change (ΔG) of the adsorption process of Cu(II) on SA and CSA were calculated with adsorption isotherm data and basic thermodynamic relations

Birthweight, BMI in adulthood and latent autoimmune diabetes in adults : a Mendelian randomisation study

Aims/hypothesis Observational studies have found an increased risk of latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (LADA) associated with low birthweight and adult overweight/obese status. We aimed to investigate whether these associations are causal, using a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) design. In addition, we compared results for LADA and type 2 diabetes. Methods We identified 43 SNPs acting through the fetal genome as instrumental variables (IVs) for own birthweight from a gcnomc-wide association study (GWAS) of the Early Growth Genetics Consortium (EGG) and the UK Biobank. We identified 820 SNPs as IVs for adult BMI from a GWAS of the UK Biobank and the Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits consortium (GIANT). Summary statistics for the associations between IVs and LADA were extracted from the only GWAS involving 2634 cases and 5947 population controls. We used the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) estimator as our primary analysis, supplemented by a series of sensitivity analyses. Results Genetically determined own birthweight was inversely associated with LADA (OR per SD [similar to 500 g] decrease in birthweight 1.68 [95% CI 1.01, 2.82]). In contrast, genetically predicted BMI in adulthood was positively associated with LADA (OR per SD [similar to 4.8 kg/m(2)] increase in BMI 1.40 [95% CI 1.14, 1.71]). Robust results were obtained in a range of sensitivity analyses using other MR estimators or excluding some IVs. With respect to type 2 diabetes, the association with birthweight was not stronger than in LADA while the association with adult BMI was stronger than in LADA. Conclusions/ interpretation This study provides genetic support for a causal link between low birthweight, adult overweight/obese status and LADA.Peer reviewe

Predict Market Share with Users’ Online Activities Data: An Initial Study on Market Share and Search Index of Mobile Phone

Acquiring accurate and timely market share information is very important for producers to arrange producing plan and design marketing strategy. However the high cost and long period of collecting survey data in survey-based method make it much difficult to easily get latest market shares data. Recently, the emerging online web systems provide users with new and convenient ways of searching, learning, experiencing and buying products. The users’ activities data captured by these web systems can reflect users’ buying intentions and behaviours very well, and contain very valuable information for predicting market shares. In this study, the correlation between Google search index and market shares of mobile phones is analyzed with time series analysis technology. The experiment result shows the statistically significant relationships exist between search index and market shares. This indicates the easily got search index data with low cost has the power of timely forecasting market shares. This study opens a door to apply users’ online activities data to accurately and timely predict market shares, which will bring many benefits to producers and customers

Early identification of recurrence in ovarian cancer: a comparison between the ovarian cancer metastasis index and CA-125 levels

Ovarian cancer (OC) is the second most common gynecologic malignancy. A clinical observational study was performed to investigate whether indicators that assess the risk of metastasis can identify recurrence earlier in OC patients. By successfully recruiting 41 patients with OC who underwent chemotherapy, we compared cancer antigen-125 (CA-125) and the ovarian cancer metastasis index (OCMI), which was previously developed by us in the clinic for this purpose. Our results showed that patients and their families generally took a sensible attitude toward disease progression and were willing to accept a new way to gain knowledge about the disease. Herein, the new way was the possibility of monitoring recurrence by introducing the OCMI into the clinic. Fifteen patients experienced recurrence during chemotherapy, implying treatment failure. For 53% of these patients, an abnormally high OCMI suggested a strong tendency toward metastasis at least one chemotherapy cycle prior to the pathological examination confirming recurrence. In comparison, the early recognition rate of recurrence using CA-125 levels was merely 13%. Furthermore, we found that the mean values of the OCMI no longer declined after the fourth chemotherapy cycle, implying that excessive chemotherapy brings no benefit to OC patients. In conclusion, our findings provide a novel and feasible approach to monitor the effectiveness of chemotherapy in the treatment of OC by assessing the potential risk of metastasis

ZBTB20 Is a Sequence-Specific Transcriptional Repressor of Alpha-Fetoprotein Gene

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) represents a classical model system to study developmental gene regulation in mammalian cells. We previously reported that liver ZBTB20 is developmentally regulated and plays a central role in AFP postnatal repression. Here we show that ZBTB20 is a sequence-specific transcriptional repressor of AFP. By ELISA-based DNA-protein binding assay and conventional gel shift assay, we successfully identified a ZBTB20-binding site at -104/-86 of mouse AFP gene, flanked by two HNF1 sites and two C/EBP sites in the proximal promoter. Importantly, mutation of the core sequence in this site fully abolished its binding to ZBTB20 in vitro, as well as the repression of AFP promoter activity by ZBTB20. The unique ZBTB20 site was highly conserved in rat and human AFP genes, but absent in albumin genes. These help to explain the autonomous regulation of albumin and AFP genes in the liver after birth. Furthermore, we demonstrated that transcriptional repression of AFP gene by ZBTB20 was liver-specific. ZBTB20 was dispensable for AFP silencing in other tissues outside liver. Our data define a cognate ZBTB20 site in AFP promoter which mediates the postnatal repression of AFP gene in the liver

Smoking, use of smokeless tobacco, HLA genotypes and incidence of latent autoimmune diabetes in adults

Aims/hypotheses Smoking and use of smokeless tobacco (snus) are associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. We investigated whether smoking and snus use increase the risk of latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (LADA) and elucidated potential interaction with HLA high-risk genotypes. Methods Analyses were based on Swedish case-control data (collected 2010-2019) with incident cases of LADA (n=593) and type 2 diabetes (n=2038), and 3036 controls, and Norwegian prospective data (collected 1984-2019) with incident cases of LADA (n=245) and type 2 diabetes (n=3726) during 1,696,503 person-years of follow-up. Pooled RRs with 95% CIs were estimated for smoking, and ORs for snus use (case-control data only). The interaction was assessed by attributable proportion (AP) due to interaction. A two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) study on smoking and LADA/type 2 diabetes was conducted based on summary statistics from genome-wide association studies. Results Smoking (RRpooled 1.30 [95% CI 1.06, 1.59] for current vs never) and snus use (OR 1.97 [95% CI 1.20, 3.24] for >= 15 box-years vs never use) were associated with an increased risk of LADA. Corresponding estimates for type 2 diabetes were 1.38 (95% CI 1.28, 1.49) and 1.92 (95% CI 1.27, 2.90), respectively. There was interaction between smoking and HLA high-risk genotypes (AP 0.27 [95% CI 0.01, 0.53]) in relation to LADA. The positive association between smoking and LADA/type 2 diabetes was confirmed by the MR study. Conclusions/interpretation Our findings suggest that tobacco use increases the risk of LADA and that smoking acts synergistically with genetic susceptibility in the promotion of LADA.Peer reviewe