Methodology for Determining the Limit Values of National Security Indicators Using Artificial Intelligence Methods

Applying artificial intelligence methods, the paper frames the algorithm structure and software for the formalized determination of the type of distribution (automatic classification) of the probability density function and the vector of limit values by justifying theoretically security gradations and determining quantitatively security indicators. The methodological basis of the research is the applied systems theory, statistical analysis, and methods of artificial intelligence (cluster analysis). The study of the approaches applied showed the absence of a theoretical basis for determining security gradations and the absence of their theoretical quantitative justification. The theoretical basis for determining security gradations is the concept of an extended "homeostatic plateau", which connects three levels of security in both directions: optimal, crisis, and critical with spheres of positive, neutral and negative feedback. To determine the bifurcation points (vector of limit values), the “t-criterion” method is used, which consists in constructing the probability density function of a “benchmark” sample, determining whether it belongs to the type of distribution with the calculation of statistical characteristics (mathematical expectation, mean square deviation, and asymmetry coefficient) and formalized calculation of the vector of limit values for characteristic types of distribution (normal, lognormal, exponential). To solve the problem of recognising (automatic classifying) the type of distribution of probability density functions of security indicators, artificial intelligence methods are used, namely, a discriminant method from the class of cluster analysis methods using quantitative and qualitative metrics: Euclidean distance, Manhattan metric and recognition by characteristic features. To digitize the determination of the vector of safety indicators limit values, an algorithm structure and software in the C++ programming language (version 6) have been developed, which ensures full automation of all stages of the algorithm and the adequacy of recognising graphic digital data with a predetermined number of clusters (types of distribution). A distinctive feature of the proposed method of formalized determination of the security indicators limit values is a complete absence of subjectivity and complete mathematical formalization, which significantly increases the speed, quality and reliability of the results obtained when evaluating the level of sustainable development, economic security, national security or national stability, regardless of the level of a researcher's qualification

Justification of the identification of threats and problematic components of sustainable regional development in the security dimension

The issue of substantiation of the problematic components of sustainable development in the security dimension and threat identification methodology is investigated. The methodology consists of directly combining the identification of threats with the need to observe the limits of the safe existence of dynamic economic systems, which connects the problem of sustainable development with the problem of security. The explanation of the extended homeostatic plateau, which explains the conditions for the transition to a higher technological system, or the complication of functioning and the loss of the main functions of the existing technological system, has gained further development. A theoretical substantiation of the limits of secure existence in terms of security gradations is proposed: critical, threshold, and optimal on both sides of the “extended homeostatic plateau”. Quantitative values of security gradations are associated with the extension of the “t-criterion” method for the formal determination of bifurcation points for characteristic types of distribution, that is, threats. The identification, classification, and analysis of problematic components and critical threats at the level of components and indicators were carried out, which made it possible to identify only four strategic directions of institutional measures that allow covering almost all indicators of sustainable development at the regional level

Strategic Scenarios of the Post-War Recovery of the Aviation Transport Sustainable Development: The Case of Ukraine

The state and strategic scenarios to recover the sustainable development of air transport in Ukraine in the post-war period are studied. Research is fulfilled with the scientific justification of quantitative indicators and macro-indicators of maintaining the trajectory of sustainable development in the medium-term perspective. The starting point of strategizing is the concept of sustainable development in the safety dimension as a management construct that contains a general systemic view of the ways to transfer from the current state of the management object to the desired one and includes the stages of identification and strategizing. Identification involves an integral convolution with dynamic weighting coefficients and a formalized justification of the limits of safe existence. A new methodology is used for strategizing, which, unlike classical forecasting methods (the past determines the future), uses the principle "the future is determined by the trajectory into the future" and is based on the method of adaptive regulation from the management theory. According to the defined methodology, three strategic recovery scenarios were developed with the annual rates of growth of real aviation transport: realistic – 4.5%; optimistic – 7.2% and the scenario of entering the optimal zone of the EU countries – 10.4%. The resulting dynamics of components, indicators and macro indicators is, in fact, a strategic plan for the post-war recovery of the economy and entering the path of sustainable development. Threats are identified and institutional measures are proposed for airlines and national systems of airports and airfields, air navigation services, aviation industry, aviation education and science of Ukraine. The strategic orientations of the environmentalization of air transport of Ukraine in the post-war period and the strategic priorities of the recovery of the air transport infrastructure were formulated, and the necessity to pursue a course towards carbon neutrality was proved

Proactive Airport Risk Management in the Context of Global Economics Sustainable Development Ensuring

Proactive airport risk management is an important element of general aviation safety. It is the best tool for ensuring such task as keeping sustainable level of national aviation and economic safety, which is very significant in term of globalization. The article presents the importance of proactive risk management, which is crucial to maintain the appropriate development of national economy

Strategic planning for sustainable development from the standpoint of economic security оn the example of the railway transport of Ukraine

The concept of strategic planning of sustainable development on the example of the railway transport of Ukraine from the standpoint of economic security, which includes methodology, methods and principles of research through the identification of the level of sustainable development, the definition of criteria, objectives and strategies for the modernisation of railway transport by using adaptive control techniques from control theory

Social Safety of Society for Developing Countries to Meet Sustainable Development Standards: Indicators, Level, Strategic Benchmarks (with Calculations Based on the Case Study of Ukraine)

The paper is devoted to identifying the level of social safety of society, taking into account the indicators of shadow economy, and developing its strategic scenarios as a component of sustainable development of Ukraine by 2030. The authors used the modern methods of normalisation, threshold vector determination, and dynamic weight coefficients in order to identify the level of social safety of society. The authors developed the structure and a list of indicators considering three components of social safety: The standard of living, the demographic component, and the quality of life. This method allows determining the list and severity of threats, comparing the dynamics of integral indices with integral thresholds in one scale, identifying the state of security, and defining strategic goals and strategies. The suggested approach is universal and can be used by any country, region, economic activity, or business to develop evidence-based medium-to-long-term sustainable development scenarios

Strategic European Integration Scenarios of Ukrainian and Polish Research, Education and Innovation Spaces

A comprehensive study was conducted in the direction of research and institutional support and comparison with the nearest neighbour - Poland, to determine the current state and justify strategic scenarios for Ukraine's integration into the research, educational and innovation spaces of the EU as a source of proactive sustainable innovative development. Analysis of the use of foresight technology to determine the possible future, create the desired image of the future and determine strategies to achieve it using methods developed in various research areas revealed that its application makes sense in determining long-term factors, trends and directions of national economies. That is, in foresighting, in contrast to forecasting, the emphasis is made on qualitative rather than quantitative results, which does not provide the expected targeted policy of the state, because it does not give clear, concrete results of actions - quantitative strategic benchmarks, monitoring which would control the process of these areas' development. The disadvantages of foresighting methods that limit its application are identified. Scientific substantiation of strategic scenarios of European integration of Ukrainian and Polish research, education and innovation spaces is based on the concept of sustainable development, which is grounded on applied systems theory, management theory and economic cybernetics and comprises the stages of identifying and strategizing. Identification is carried out taking into account the definition of the safe existence boundaries and simultaneous norming and integrated convolution of indicators and thresholds of education and innovation. Comparison on one scale of integrated indices of education and innovation makes it possible to carry out the goal-setting stage, identify possible strategic development scenarios and build the desired development trajectories, i.e., to implement the principle of strategizing "the future is determined by the trajectory into future." Thus, knowledge of the desired values of integrated indices in each year makes it possible, through their decomposition by the method of adaptive regulation from the management theory, to justify the values of indicators that provide the desired growth trajectory and achieve certain goals of research, educational and innovative spaces of Ukraine and Poland

Обґрунтування виявлення загроз і проблемні складові сталого регіонального розвитку у вимірі безпеки

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The methodology consists of directly combining the identification of threats with the need to observe the limits of the safe existence of dynamic economic systems, which connects the problem of sustainable development with the problem of security. The explanation of the extended homeostatic plateau, which explains the conditions for the transition to a higher technological system, or the complication of functioning and the loss of the main functions of the existing technological system, has gained further development. A theoretical substantiation of the limits of secure existence in terms of security gradations is proposed: critical, threshold, and optimal on both sides of the "extended homeostatic plateau". Quantitative values of security gradations are associated with the extension of the "t-criterion" method for the formal determination of bifurcation points for characteristic types of distribution, that is, threats. The identification, classification, and analysis of problematic components and critical threats at the level of components and indicators were carried out, which made it possible to identify only four strategic directions of institutional measures that allow covering almost all indicators of sustainable development at the regional level