Dynamic Consumption Behavior: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data (Revised version)

Household consumption and saving behavior have been the central theme of recent macroeconomic literature. Following the work of Robert Hall (1978) and a series of papers by Fumio Hayashi, the focus of the literature has been on dynamic consumption behavior. Using the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), we conducted a dynamic panel analysis of consumption behavior. We examined intertemporal smoothing and the durability of consumption behavior with or without liquidity constraints. Our results are summarized as follows: (1) households with debt as well as debt-free households with low annual incomes and net savings faced disposable income constraints; (2) for these types of households, parameter values of lagged dependent variables between MLE and GMM are very close and therefore statistically significant and the implications for each remain more or less the same; (3) debt-free households with high annual incomes and net savings also faced a disposable income constraint in MLE that is not expected in the permanent income-lifecycle hypothesis.dynamic consumption, panel data, liquidity constraints

The Big Mac Standard: A Statistical Illustration

We demonstrate a statistical procedure for selecting the most suitable empirical model to test an economic theory, using the example of the test for purchasing power parity based on the Big Mac Index. Our results show that supporting evidence for purchasing power parity, conditional on the Balassa-Samuelson effect, depends crucially on the selection of models, sample periods and economies used for estimations.Big Mac Index, Purchasing Power Parity, Panel Data

The Big Mac Standard: A statistical Illustration

We demonstrate a statistical procedure for selecting the most suitable empirical model to test an economic theory, using the example of the test for purchasing power parity based on the Big Mac Index. Our results show that supporting evidence for purchasing power parity, conditional on the Balassa-Samuelson effect, depends crucially on the selection of models, sample periods and economies used for estimations.

Quest for Good Money

This open access book examines the history and role of money. Money is often defined in terms of three interrelated functions: as a medium of exchange, store of value and unit of account. Researchers frequently discuss the first two functions, but tend to ignore unit of account. This book focuses on how a unit of account or denomination can be defined and can be derived from the monetary system. In the case of paper money and coins, we know how to determine the denomination of money based on the problem of the least number of weights defined by Bâchet and proved by Hardy and Wright (1960). However, in the case of digital or cryptocurrency, denomination may not matter because digital or cryptocurrency uses a wallet that is essentially denomination free: a wallet can contain any amount of currency without upper and lower limits. When people talk about the stablecoin, i.e. the stable price of digital and cryptocurrency with the major legal tender, they take a unit of account or denomination of digital or cryptocurrency as given. This arrangement destroys the nature of denomination free or decentralized autonomy as it were. Exploring how we can consolidate with these two views of denomination, this book will appeal to anyone interested in creating new digital or cryptocurrencies. It also serves as a textbook on central bank digital currency

Information Content of Inflation-Indexed Bond Prices: Evaluation of U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities

In January 1997, the U.S. Treasury started issuing Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (TIPS; hereafter TIPS and indexed bonds interchangeably) and, as of September 2002, a total of 10 issues were being traded on the market, while one issue had already matured. The purpose of this paper is to attempt an evaluation of indexed bonds based on the record of five and a half years of market trading in TIPS, and to present the results as a reference for the issue of similar securities by the Japanese government in the future. The results of this paper are as follows. (1) Real interest rates are relatively stable and remain near the 4 percent mark. The 30-year bond is even more stable. (2) The expected inflation rate is more closely linked to the realized consumer price index (CPI) than to the real yield. However, the expected inflation rate is far more stable and its fluctuations smaller. In particular, the 30-year bond is steady, near the 2 percent mark. (3) While the economic information derived from the 10-year bond is strongly influenced by short-term economic fluctuations, the economic information derived from the 30-year bond is generally unresponsive to short-term economic fluctuations. (4) Examination of the derived information using econometric methods indicates that useful economic information was obtained from the following indexed bonds in the secondary markets: Series Three and Four 10-year bonds. Hence, while a total of 11 indexed bonds have been issued, very few of them have proven to be truly useful. These useful bonds turn out to have fair initial conditions, are continuously arbitraged with the nominal bonds, and trade actively in the secondary markets.

Quest for Good Money

This open access book examines the history and role of money. Money is often defined in terms of three interrelated functions: as a medium of exchange, store of value and unit of account. Researchers frequently discuss the first two functions, but tend to ignore unit of account. This book focuses on how a unit of account or denomination can be defined and can be derived from the monetary system. In the case of paper money and coins, we know how to determine the denomination of money based on the problem of the least number of weights defined by Bâchet and proved by Hardy and Wright (1960). However, in the case of digital or cryptocurrency, denomination may not matter because digital or cryptocurrency uses a wallet that is essentially denomination free: a wallet can contain any amount of currency without upper and lower limits. When people talk about the stablecoin, i.e. the stable price of digital and cryptocurrency with the major legal tender, they take a unit of account or denomination of digital or cryptocurrency as given. This arrangement destroys the nature of denomination free or decentralized autonomy as it were. Exploring how we can consolidate with these two views of denomination, this book will appeal to anyone interested in creating new digital or cryptocurrencies. It also serves as a textbook on central bank digital currency