Prediction of Flow Duration Curve for Seasonal Rivers in Iraq

This paper presents a new method to estimate the flow duration curves [FDCs] for ungauged river basins whose natural and meterological characteristics are known. This study highlights the modeling of the lower three-quarters of the section of the flow duration curves [FDCs]. Eight sub-catchments were used to develop and evaluate the proposed flow duration model in the north of Iraq. The logarithmic type function has been found appropriate for the lower three-quarters of the section of [FDCs] for all river sub-catchments located in the study area. Parameter values of the logarithmic function model were calculated using topographic, hydrological and climatic characteristics of the basins under study by two regional regression models: first CA-MAP (catchment area-mean annual precipitation) model and second MAF-PE (mean annual flowpotential evapotranspiration) model. Generally, it is found that both models used were predicting a good estimate at the end of the flow duration curve (low-flows). In most cases, the statistics and graphical results showed that the agreement between observed and estimated FDCs is very good by using MAF-PE model as compared to CA-MAP model

PERFORMANCE OF THE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR PLOTTING POSITIONS IN ESTIMATING THE MAXIMUM DISCHARGES OF ADHAIM RIVER

In this study, the peak discharges of Adhaim River were plotted against their hydrologic years.Two probability distributions and five plotting positions formulas were fitted to the annualmaximum discharges AMD. The performances of the probability distributions with plottingposition formulas were evaluated using the coefficients of determination R2, root mean squareerrors RMSE, Mean Absolute Percent Error MAPE, and absolute differences between predictedand observed discharges. The annual maximum discharges of Adhaim River vary in magnitudefrom 111 to 3520 m3/sec for record periods. The mean of annual maximum discharges 753m3/sec. The Lognormal LN and Log-Person type III LP3 distributions have the highest R2 usingWeibull plotting position formula WPP of 0.992 and 0.989, respectively. The LN had minimumRMSE and MAPE of 69.13 and 7.3%, respectively, when conformed with California plottingposition CPP. The LP3 had minimum RMSE and MAPE of 93.6 and 6.5% respectively whenconformed with Chegadayev plotting position CHPP. The minimum absolute differences atreturn periods of 25, 50,100, and 200 years were obtained when LN conformed with Hazenplotting position HPP and when LP3 conformed with CPP. HTTP://DX.DOI.ORG/10.30572/2018/KJE/10040

Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. Methods: GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically. Findings: The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. Interpretation: Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population