The crude and age-standardized incidence rate (per 100,000) for mesothelioma in South Korea during the observed (1994–2013) and predicted periods (2014–2033), stratified according to sex.

<p>The arrows indicate the peak incidence rate for mesothelioma. (The peak crude incidence rate does not appear by 2033 in men).</p

The population pyramid, stratified according to sex, for South Korea in 2013 and 2033.

<p>The population pyramid, stratified according to sex, for South Korea in 2013 and 2033.</p

Observed (1994–2013) and predicted mesothelioma cases (2029–2033) in South Korea, stratified according to sex.

<p>Observed (1994–2013) and predicted mesothelioma cases (2029–2033) in South Korea, stratified according to sex.</p

Estimated future incidence of malignant mesothelioma in South Korea: Projection from 2014 to 2033

<div><p>Malignant mesothelioma is a malignant tumor on the pleura or the peritoneum caused mostly by asbestos. Although asbestos is not currently used in South Korea, the incidence of mesothelioma is increasing due to its long latent period. This study predicted the incidence of malignant mesothelioma in South Korea over the next 20 years using an age-period-cohort (APC) model. Data regarding mesothelioma incidence from 1994–2013 were acquired from the Korea Central Cancer Registry (KCCR). Demographic data, including prospective resident data, were acquired from the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) for 1994–2033. An APC model with Møller’s power-link function was utilized to predict the incidence of mesothelioma. It was predicted that 2,380 and 1,199 new cases of mesothelioma in men and women, respectively, would occur over the next 20 years. For both sexes, the mesothelioma incidence rate was predicted to be greater in 2029–2033 compared to that in 2009–2013 (men, 0.282 vs 0.563; women, 0.155 vs 0.217). For men, the age-standardized incidence rate was predicted to be slightly greater in 2029–2033 relative to the rate in 2009–2013 (0.228 vs 0.235), while the age-standardized incidence rate in women decreased within the same timeframe (0.113 vs 0.109). The changes in mesothelioma incidence were mostly caused by changes in the population structure due to aging and not by changes in the mesothelioma risk ratio. The results of this study project a continuous increase in mesothelioma incidence in South Korea over the next 20 years. Although the projected increase in mesothelioma incidence was not related to an increase in the mesothelioma risk ratio, continuous preventive efforts are necessary to reduce the exposure to asbestos and prevent the trend from worsening.</p></div

The observed and predicted mesothelioma incidence between 2009–2013 and 2029–2033 in South Korea, stratified according to sex, with the corresponding percentage change in the number of cases decomposed into changing risk and demographic components.

<p>The observed and predicted mesothelioma incidence between 2009–2013 and 2029–2033 in South Korea, stratified according to sex, with the corresponding percentage change in the number of cases decomposed into changing risk and demographic components.</p

The age-specific incidence rates of mesothelioma in South Korea for the observed (1994–2013) and predicted periods (2014–2033), stratified according to sex.

<p>The age-specific incidence rates of mesothelioma in South Korea for the observed (1994–2013) and predicted periods (2014–2033), stratified according to sex.</p

The amount of imported and produced asbestos (1975–2008) plotted against the age-standardized and crude incidence rates in South Korea during the observed (1994–2013) and predicted periods (2014–2033).

<p>(The observed incidence rates reflect annual data).</p

Four-Year Changes in Visceral Fat Mass and the Risk of Developing Proteinuria in the General Population

<div><p>Background</p><p>Previous cross-sectional studies demonstrated the close relationship between visceral obesity and the increased prevalence of proteinuria. But, little is known about the role of changes in visceral fat mass (∆VFM) over several years in the development of proteinuria. In this longitudinal cohort study with the general population, the changes in ∆VFM as well as baseline VFM on proteinuria development were evaluated.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Healthy individuals (n = 2393) who participated in two health screening exams were analyzed. Subjects were divided into three groups based on gender-specific tertiles of baseline VFM and ∆VFM. Each patient was tested for proteinuria using a dipstick, and proteinuria was defined as 1+ or greater.</p><p>Results</p><p>The mean age was 51.9±7.7 years, and the incidence of proteinuria was 3.9% (n = 93). During the 4 years, 52.5% of the subjects experienced a decline in ∆VFM. However, subjects who developed proteinuria exhibited a significant increase in ∆VFM. Even after adjustment for age, smoking, systolic and diastolic BP, serum creatinine, and hs-CRP levels, the highest tertiles for baseline VFM [men, odds ratio (OR) 3.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22–9.67; women, OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.05–4.15] and ∆VFM (men, OR 2.92, 95% CI 1.22–6.99; women, OR 3.16, 95% CI 1.56–6.39) were independent predictors of proteinuria development. Following adjustment of both parameters, subjects in the highest baseline VFM and ∆VFM tertiles exhibited the greatest risk of proteinuria development, which suggested the additive harmful effects of the two factors.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>Baseline VFM and greater increase in ∆VFM were both important risk factors for developing proteinuria in the general population. Appropriate education and interventions to prevent accumulation of VFM should be the major focus of preemptive strategies.</p></div

Baseline characteristics of study participants.

<p>* p <0.001 between men and women</p><p>Baseline characteristics of study participants.</p

Factors associated with proteinuria development.

<p>Factors associated with proteinuria development.</p