Racial and Ethnic Differences in Mortality Associated with Serum Potassium in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients.

BackgroundAbnormalities in serum potassium are risk factors for sudden cardiac death and arrhythmias among dialysis patients. Although a previous study in hemodialysis patients has shown that race/ethnicity may impact the relationship between serum potassium and mortality, the relationship remains unclear among peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients where the dynamics of serum potassium is more stable.MethodsAmong 17,664 patients who started PD between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2011 in a large US dialysis organization, we evaluated the association of serum potassium levels with all-cause and arrhythmia-related deaths across race/ethnicity using time-dependent Cox models with adjustments for demographics. We also used restricted cubic spline functions for serum potassium levels to explore non-linear associations.ResultsBaseline serum potassium levels were the highest among Hispanics (4.2 ± 0.7 mEq/L) and lowest among non-Hispanic blacks (4.0 ± 0.7 mEq/L). Among 2,949 deaths during the follow-up of median 2.2 (interquartile ranges 1.3-3.2) years, 683 (23%) were arrhythmia-related deaths. Overall, both hyperkalemia and hypokalemia (i.e., serum potassium levels >5.0 and <3.5 mEq/L, respectively) were associated with higher all-cause and arrhythmia-related mortality. In a stratified analysis according to race/ethnicity, the association of hypokalemia with all-cause and arrhythmia-related mortality was consistent with an attenuation for arrhythmia-related mortality in non-Hispanic blacks. Hyperkalemia was associated with all-cause and arrhythmia-related mortality in non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic blacks, but no association was observed in Hispanics.ConclusionAmong incident PD patients, hypokalemia was consistently associated with all-cause and arrhythmia-related deaths irrespective of race/ethnicity. However, while hyperkalemia was associated with both death outcomes in non-Hispanic blacks and whites, it was not associated with either death outcome in Hispanic patients. Further studies are needed to demonstrate whether different strategies should be followed for the management of serum potassium levels according to race/ethnicity

Residual Kidney Function Decline and Mortality in Incident Hemodialysis Patients.

In patients with ESRD, residual kidney function (RKF) contributes to achievement of adequate solute clearance. However, few studies have examined RKF in patients on hemodialysis. In a longitudinal cohort of 6538 patients who started maintenance hemodialysis over a 4-year period (January 2007 through December 2010) and had available renal urea clearance (CLurea) data at baseline and 1 year after hemodialysis initiation, we examined the association of annual change in renal CLurea rate with subsequent survival. The median (interquartile range) baseline value and mean±SD annual change of CLurea were 3.3 (1.9-5.0) and -1.1±2.8 ml/min per 1.73 m2, respectively. Greater CLurea rate 1 year after hemodialysis initiation associated with better survival. Furthermore, we found a gradient association between loss of RKF and all-cause mortality: changes in CLurea rate of -6.0 and +3.0 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year associated with case mix-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 2.00 (1.55 to 2.59) and 0. 61 (0.50 to 0.74), respectively (reference: -1.5 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year). These associations remained robust against adjustment for laboratory variables and ultrafiltration rate and were consistent across strata of baseline CLurea, age, sex, race, diabetes status, presence of congestive heart failure, and hemoglobin, serum albumin, and serum phosphorus levels. Sensitivity analyses using urine volume as another index of RKF yielded consistent associations. In conclusion, RKF decline during the first year of dialysis has a graded association with all-cause mortality among incident hemodialysis patients. The clinical benefits of RKF preservation strategies on mortality should be determined

Impact of residual kidney function on hemodialysis adequacy and patient survival.

Background:Both dialysis dose and residual kidney function (RKF) contribute to solute clearance and are associated with outcomes in hemodialysis patients. We hypothesized that the association between dialysis dose and mortality is attenuated with greater RKF. Methods:Among 32 251 incident hemodialysis patients in a large US dialysis organization (2007-11), we examined the interaction between single-pool Kt/V (spKt/V) and renal urea clearance (rCLurea) levels in survival analyses using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results:The median rCLurea and mean baseline spKt/V were 3.06 [interquartile range (IQR) 1.74-4.85] mL/min/1.73 m2 and 1.32 ± 0.28, respectively. A total of 7444 (23%) patients died during the median follow-up of 1.2 years (IQR 0.5-2.2 years) with an incidence of 15.4 deaths per 100 patient-years. The Cox model with adjustment for case-mix and laboratory variables showed that rCLurea modified the association between spKt/V and mortality (Pinteraction = 0.03); lower spKt/V was associated with higher mortality among patients with low rCLurea (i.e. <3  mL/min/1.73 m2) but not among those with higher rCLurea. The adjusted mortality hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals of the low (<1.2) versus high (≥1.2) spKt/V were 1.40 (1.12-1.74), 1.21 (1.10-1.33), 1.06 (0.98-1.14), and 1.00 (0.93-1.08) for patients with rCLurea of 0.0, 1.0, 3.0 and 6.0 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. Conclusions:Incident hemodialysis patients with substantial RKF do not exhibit the expected better survival at higher hemodialysis doses. RKF levels should be taken into account when deciding on the dose of dialysis treatment among incident hemodialysis patients

Virtual turning points and bifurcation of Stokes curves for higher order ordinary differential equations

For a higher order linear ordinary differential operator P, its Stokes curve bifurcates in general when it hits another turning point of P. This phenomenon is most neatly understandable by taking into account Stokes curves emanating from virtual turning points, together with those from ordinary turning points. This understanding of the bifurcation of a Stokes curve plays an important role in resolving a paradox recently found in the Noumi-Yamada system, a system of linear differential equations associated with the fourth Painleve equation.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Association of Pre-ESRD Serum Calcium With Post-ESRD Mortality Among Incident ESRD Patients: A Cohort Study.

Albumin-corrected serum calcium (cSCa) decline at late stages of chronic kidney disease and rise after dialysis initiation. Although hypercalcemia is associated with higher mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD), there are scarce data on the impact of pre-ESRD cSCa on post-ESRD mortality. Therefore, we used a large national cohort of 21,826 US veterans who transitioned to dialysis in all US Department of Veterans Affairs health care facilities over 2009 to 2014 to examine the associations with all-cause and cause-specific post-ESRD mortality of (1) cSCa concentrations averaged over the last 6 months and (2) its rate of decline during the last 12 months before dialysis initiation. Mean concentrations and median rate of decline of cSCa were 9.3 ± 0.7 mg/dL and -0.15 (interquartile range -0.39 to 0.07) mg/dL/year, respectively. A total of 9596 patients died during the follow-up period (mean 1.9 years; total 41,541 patient-years) with an incidence rate of 23.1 per 100 patient-years. There was an independent linear association between higher cSCa with higher mortality (ptrend < 0.001). The mortality risk associated with cSCa ≥9.0 mg/dL was attenuated among active vitamin D users (pinteraction < 0.001). Patients with faster decline in cSCa showed lower mortality irrespective of baseline cSCa concentrations. These cSCa-mortality associations were stronger for noncardiovascular versus cardiovascular death. In conclusion, lower pre-ESRD cSCa and faster decline in cSCa were consistently and linearly associated with better post-ESRD survival among US veterans, especially for noncardiovascular death. Further studies are needed to determine if correcting hypocalcemia is beneficial or harmful and which intervention is preferred when indicated among patients transitioning to ESRD. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research

Lymphocyte Cell Ratios and Mortality among Incident Hemodialysis Patients.

BackgroundNeutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) have been previously suggested as oncologic prognostication markers. These are associated with malnutrition and inflammation, and hence, may provide benefit in predicting mortality among hemodialysis patients.MethodsAmong 108,548 incident hemodialysis patients in a large U.S. dialysis organization (2007-2011), we compared the mortality predictability of NLR and PLR with baseline and time-varying covariate Cox models using the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), net reclassification index (NRI), and adjusted R2.ResultsDuring the median follow-up period of 1.4 years, 28,618 patients died. Median (IQR) NLR and PLR at baseline were 3.64 (2.68-5.00) and 179 (136-248) respectively. NLR was associated with higher mortality, which appeared stronger in the time-varying versus baseline model. PLR exhibited a J-shaped association with mortality in both models. NLR provided better mortality prediction in addition to demographics, comorbidities, and serum albumin; ΔAUROC and NRI for 1-year mortality (95% CI) were 0.010 (0.009-0.012) and 6.4% (5.5-7.3%) respectively. Additionally, adjusted R2 (95% CI) for the Cox model increased from 0.269 (0.262-0.276) to 0.283 (0.276-0.290) in the non-time-varying model and from 0.467 (0.461-0.472) to 0.505 (0.500-0.512) in the time-varying model. There was little to no benefit of adding PLR to predict mortality.ConclusionsHigh NLR in incident hemodialysis patients predicted mortality, especially in the short-term period. NLR, but not PLR, added modest benefit in predicting mortality along with demographics, comorbidities, and serum albumin, and should be included in prognostication approaches

Longitudinal Associations among Renal Urea Clearance-Corrected Normalized Protein Catabolic Rate, Serum Albumin, and Mortality in Patients on Hemodialysis.

Background and objectivesThere are inconsistent reports on the association of dietary protein intake with serum albumin and outcomes among patients on hemodialysis. Using a new normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR) variable accounting for residual renal urea clearance, we hypothesized that higher baseline nPCR and rise in nPCR would be associated with higher serum albumin and better survival among incident hemodialysis patients.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsAmong 36,757 incident hemodialysis patients in a large United States dialysis organization, we examined baseline and change in renal urea clearance-corrected nPCR as a protein intake surrogate and modeled their associations with serum albumin and mortality over 5 years (1/2007-12/2011).ResultsMedian nPCRs with and without accounting for renal urea clearance at baseline were 0.94 and 0.78 g/kg per day, respectively (median within-patient difference, 0.14 [interquartile range, 0.07-0.23] g/kg per day). During a median follow-up period of 1.4 years, 8481 deaths were observed. Baseline renal urea clearance-corrected nPCR was associated with higher serum albumin and lower mortality in the fully adjusted model (Ptrend<0.001). Among 13,895 patients with available data, greater rise in renal urea clearance-corrected nPCR during the first 6 months was also associated with attaining high serum albumin (≥3.8 g/dl) and lower mortality (Ptrend<0.001); compared with the reference group (a change of 0.1-0.2 g/kg per day), odds and hazard ratios were 0.53 (95% confidence interval, 0.44 to 0.63) and 1.32 (95% confidence interval, 1.14 to 1.54), respectively, among patients with a change of <-0.2 g/kg per day and 1.62 (95% confidence interval, 1.35 to 1.96) and 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.90), respectively, among those with a change of ≥0.5 g/kg per day. Within a given category of nPCR without accounting for renal urea clearance, higher levels of renal urea clearance-corrected nPCR consistently showed lower mortality risk.ConclusionsAmong incident hemodialysis patients, higher dietary protein intake represented by nPCR and its changes over time appear to be associated with increased serum albumin levels and greater survival. nPCR may be underestimated when not accounting for renal urea clearance. Compared with the conventional nPCR, renal urea clearance-corrected nPCR may be a better marker of mortality

Vascular access placement and mortality in elderly incident hemodialysis patients.

BackgroundArteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) are the preferred vascular access type in most hemodialysis patients. However, the optimal vascular access type in octogenarians and older (≥80 years) hemodialysis patients remains widely debated given their limited life expectancy and lower AVF maturation rates.MethodsAmong incident hemodialysis patients receiving care in a large national dialysis organization during 2007-2011, we examined patterns of vascular access type conversion in 1 year following dialysis initiation in patients <80 versus ≥80 years of age. Among a subcohort of patients ≥80 years of age, we examined the association between vascular access type conversion and mortality using multivariable survival models.ResultsIn the overall cohort of 100 804 patients, the prevalence of AVF/arteriovenous graft (AVG) as the primary vascular access type increased during the first year of hemodialysis, but plateaued thereafter. Among 8356 patients ≥80 years of age and treated for >1 year, those with initial AVF/AVG use and placement of AVF from a central venous catheter (CVC) had lower mortality compared with patients with persistent CVC use. When the reference group was changed to patients who had AVF placement from a CVC in the first year of dialysis, those with initial AVF use had similar mortality. A longer duration of CVC use was associated with incrementally worse survival.ConclusionsAmong incident hemodialysis patients ≥80 years of age, placement of an AVF from a CVC within the first year of dialysis had similar mortality compared with initial AVF use. Our data suggest that initial CVC use with later placement of an AVF may be an acceptable option among elderly hemodialysis patients

No Survival Benefit in Octogenarians and Nonagenarians with Extended Hemodialysis Treatment Time.

BackgroundThe population of elderly end-stage renal disease patients initiating dialysis is rapidly growing. Although longer treatment is supposed to benefit for hemodialysis (HD) patients through more solute clearance and slower fluid removal, it is not yet clear how treatment session length affects mortality risk in octogenarians and nonagenarians.MethodsIn a cohort of 112,026 incident HD patients between 2007 and 2011, we examined the association of treatment session length with all-cause mortality, adjusting for demographics and comorbid conditions. We also used restricted spline functions for age to evaluate continuous changes in the association of short (< 210 min) and extended (≥240 min) HD treatment (vs. 210 to < 240 min) with all-cause mortality over continuous age.ResultsDuring the first 91 days of dialysis, patients aged ≥80 years tended to have the lowest treatment session length (median [interquartile range] 211 [193-230] min, r > 0.5). Longer treatment was associated with better survival in patients < 65 and 65 to < 80 years but not in octogenarians/nonagenarians. The association of extended treatment (≥240 min) with better survival was attenuated across age and not significant among patients aged ≥80 years with a hazard ratio of 1.10 (95% CI 0.99-1.20). Shorter treatment sessions (< 210 min) was associated with higher mortality across all age groups.ConclusionExtended HD was not associated with lower mortality among octogenarians and nonagenarians, while it was associated with better survival among younger patients. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal treatment session length in elderly incident HD patients