Turnout at European Parliament elections is likely to continue to decline in the coming decades

Turnout levels at elections to the European Parliament have fallen since the 1970s. Yosef Bhatti and Kasper Møller Hansen note that turnout is particularly low among younger citizens and that this appears to be a permanent generational effect, rather than simply a part of the voting ‘life cycle’. This is likely to present a demographic challenge for turnout levels at future European Parliament elections

Valgdeltagelsen blandt ikke-vestlige indvandrere og efterkommere

Det er velkendt, at valgdeltagelsen blandt ikke-vestlige indvandrere og efterkommere er markant lavere end blandt etniske danskere. Et centralt spørgsmål er, om noget af denne forskel kan forklares med de forskellige demografiske sammensætninger i de to grupper. Vi finder, at ikke-vestlige indvandrere ved kommunalvalget i 2013 havde 31 procentpoint lavere valgdeltagelse end etniske danskere, selv når der tages højde for demografiske karakteristika. Efterkommere stemmer 4 procentpoint mindre end indvandrere deskriptivt, men 7 procentpoint mere end indvandrere, når der tages højde for demografi. Efterkommeres efterslæb til de etniske danskere mindskes altså, når der kontrolleres for demografi, men det er stadig 24 procentpoints forskel. Danske statsborgere stemmer væsentligt hyppigere end ikke-danske statsborgere, men vi finder ikke stærk evidens for en betydelig statsborgerskabseffekt på valgdeltagelsen, når vi prøver at udskille den selvstændige effekt heraf. Resultaterne peger i retning af, at forløbet op til opnåelse af statsborgerskab skærper de kommende statsborgeres interesse for at stemme ved kommunalvalget, som dog forsvinder efter opnåelsen af statsborgerskab, om end der er behov for yderligere studier på området

Kommunalreformens betydning for den kommunale valgdeltagelse

What is the impact of the Danish municipal reform on turnout at the municipal elections? In the reform 275 municipalities merged into only 98, and there was thus widespread concern that turnout would be depressed as the average municipal population size increased. This concern seemed even more important after turnout dropped about 4 percentage points in the second election following the reform. We find a strong partial correlation between municipal population size and turnout. An individual level regression indicates that after the reform, the amalgamating municipalities had a lower turnout than their non-amalgamating peers. A dynamic regression fails to show any impact of the reform from 1997 to 2009. Nevertheless, an intriguing pattern is found, as the effect of the amalgamation municipalities actually seems to have raised their turnout in the first election following the reform, while it was depressed in the subsequent election. Finally, we argue that should the municipal reform might have had some impact, it is not likely the sole explanation for the dramatic decline in turnout from 2005 to 2009.