Labor markets and earnings inequality : a status report

Wages ; Employment (Economic theory) ; Education

Estimating revenues from tax reform in transition economies

Quantitative analysis is a key aspect of the design and evaluation of tax policy. To make informed decisions, policymakers should know how much revenue is collected and from whom. The tax reform planned for transition economies should include the introduction not only of new tax structures but also of new models to estimate revenues. Preliminary methodologies can be developed in time to influence the current discussions on the design of tax legislation. These efforts will also lay the groundwork for the further development of data bases and models that will be used to evaluate tax policy in the years ahead. ; This paper provides an introduction to quantitative techniques for analyzing tax reforms. Section I discusses three interrelated functions of tax analysis departments. These functions are (1) forecasting tax receipts, (2) estimating revenues resulting from changes in tax laws, and (3) analyzing the economic effects of tax laws. Section II lays out a general conceptual framework for preparing these analyses. Section III presents examples of relatively simple techniques for forecasting, estimation, and analysis for a value-added tax. Section IV offers conclusions.International finance ; Tax reform

Defense Downsizing: The Economic Impacts in New England

Yoland R. Kodrzycki reviews the extent of New England’s dependency on defense and various measures of the severity of defense downsizing. The analysis is put in the broader context of the New England economy. Because the economy can provide opportunities or constraints, it is important to understand the general economic environment when designing a defense conversion strategy. This article is excerpted from the author’s remarks at a conference entitled “From Defense to Offense: Converting Maine’s Economy in a Time of Shrinking Military Expenditures,” which took place in Portland on June 13, 1994. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Smoothing state tax revenues over the business cycle: Gauging fiscal needs and opportunities

The high degree of fiscal stress experienced by state governments in the 2001 and the 2007-2009 recessions has prompted renewed discussions of alternative approaches to stabilizing state finances over the business cycle. Prompted by evidence of increased state tax revenue cyclicality in the aggregate, this study explores state-specific patterns so as to inform policymakers in individual states. It finds that while elasticity levels continued to differ across states, most states experienced greater cyclical sensitivity in the 2000s than in the 1980s and 1990s. In addition, during the 2000s personal income tax receipts varied more over the business cycle than sales tax receipts in most states that imposed both forms of taxation. This trend represented a departure from the patterns of the prior two decades, when sales tax receipts were more cyclically sensitive than individual income tax receipts in the majority of states. Cross-section regressions reveal that the main source of variation in income tax elasticities across states during the 2000s was the cyclical sensitivity of their residents' incomes as reflected on their federal income tax returns. By contrast, state-specific features such as the tax treatment of capital gains or the progressivity of tax rates did not account for significant differences in revenue elasticities across states. In addition, state departures from the federal definitions of adjusted gross income and taxable income, on the whole, did not contribute to increased revenue volatility over the business cycle. The findings are used to evaluate the efficacy of alternative measures that could be used to help stabilize state revenues, including reforms of state tax and stabilization trust structures

Lessons from resurgent cities

In 2008, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston began a project to help reinvigorate the city of Springfield, Massachusetts. This cross-departmental initiative uses the Boston Fed's research and convening capabilities to complement the efforts of other organizations dedicated to improving economic and social conditions in New England's fourth-largest city. As noted in an earlier joint Federal Reserve-Brookings Institution study, Springfield has one of the highest rates of concentrated poverty in the country: one-third of the city's poor live in neighborhoods where poverty rates exceed 40 percent. Thus, a particular focus of the Boston Fed project has been to support revitalization strategies that would enable more city residents, particularly those located in poor areas, to prosper. While the Boston Fed project focuses on the city of Springfield, we hope to devise approaches that can be replicated in other struggling mid-sized cites around New England and the nation. To this end, this essay reports on lessons learned from our research on older industrial cities that have adapted relatively well to economic challenges, and are recognized as vital communities today. We believe these "resurgent cities" provide relevant, inspiring insights on development strategies for urban America.Cities and towns ; Cities and towns - Massachusetts ; Economic conditions ; Economic conditions - Massachusetts ; Economic policy ; Economic policy - Massachusetts

Small steps in the right direction?: restructuring public education

When the term "knowledge-based economy" first entered popular discussion - sometime around the early 1980s - the focus was exclusively on scientific, technological, and business leadership. Only gradually did our society come to appreciate the pervasiveness of the knowledge-based economy. It affects not just the demand for high-level technical and entrepreneurial talent but, indeed, the job requirements for virtually all types of work. This growing realization has laid the foundation for broad-scale reforms of education in the United States and many other nations.Education

Economic distress and resurgence in US central cities: Concepts, causes, and policy levers

This paper provides a review of the literature on U.S. central city growth and distress during the second half of the twentieth century.It finds that city growth tended to be higher in metropolitan areas with favorable weather, higher growth, and greater human capital, while distress was strongly correlated with city-level manufacturing legacy. The article affirms that distress has been highly persistent, but that some cities have achieved resurgence through a combination of strong leadership, collaboration across sectors and institutions, clear and broad-based strategies, and significant infrastructure investments. Finally, the article explores measurement issues by comparing two methodologies used to identify poorly performing central cities: comparisons across a comprehensive national cross-section of cities and comparisons within smaller samples of similar cities. It finds that these approaches have produced similar assessments of a city's status, except in some cases where the city's progress has been uneven across time or with respect to alternative criteria

Spatial and labor market contributions to earnings inequality: an overview

Wages ; Labor market ; Income distribution

Jobs in Springfield, Massachusetts: understanding and remedying the causes of low resident employment rates

As part of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's commitment to supporting efforts to revitalize the economy of Springfield, Massachusetts, this paper explores the causes of and potential remedies for the city's low resident employment rates. When compared to the state as a whole and to other midsize New England cities, the share of employed city residents is low, particularly for residents of downtown Springfield and its nearby neighborhoods. By analyzing the availability of jobs across Springfield's various neighborhoods and in nearby towns and cities, this paper's goal is to learn why so few Springfield residents are employed, and thus to identify policy priorities to increase employment. This study finds that solving Springfield's low resident employment rates will require a combination of new job creation, improved informational and physical access to jobs, and strengthening the citizenry's job skills.Economic conditions - Massachusetts ; Job creation - Massachusetts ; Unemployment - Massachusetts

Reinvigorating Springfield's economy: lessons from resurgent cities

As part of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston's commitment to supporting efforts to revitalize the economy of Springfield, Massachusetts, this paper analyzes the economic development approaches of other mid-sized manufacturing-oriented cities during the past half century. From among a comparison group of 25 municipalities that were similar to Springfield in 1960, the study identifies 10 "resurgent cities" that have made substantial progress in improving living standards for their residents, and that are recognized as vital communities in a broader sense by experts on urban economic development and policy. These case studies suggest that industry mix, demographic composition, and geographic position are not the key factors distinguishing the resurgent cities from Springfield. Instead, the most important lessons from the resurgent cities concern leadership and collaboration. Initial leadership in these cities came from a variety of key institutions and individuals. In some cases, the turnaround started with efforts on the part of the public sector, while in other cases nongovernmental institutions or private developers were at the forefront. Regardless of who initiated the turnaround, economic redevelopment efforts spanned decades and involved collaborations among numerous organizations and sectors.Cities and towns ; Cities and towns - Massachusetts ; Economic policy - Massachusetts