Co-designing Indus Water-Energy-Land Futures

The Indus River Basin covers an area of around 1 million square kilometers and connects four countries: Afghanistan, China, India, and Pakistan. More than 300 million people depend to some extent on the basin’s water, yet a growing population, increasing food and energy demands, climate change, and shifting monsoon patterns are exerting increasing pressure. Under these pressures, a “business as usual” (BAU) approach is no longer sustainable, and decision makers and wider stakeholders are calling for more integrated and inclusive development pathways that are in line with achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we propose an integrated nexus modeling framework co-designed with regional stakeholders from the four riparian countries of the Indus River Basin and discuss challenges and opportunities for developing transformation pathways for the basin’s future

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Immunogenicity and Induction of Functional Antibodies in Rabbits Immunized with a Trivalent Typhoid-Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella Glycoconjugate Formulation

Typhoid fever due to Salmonella Typhi and invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) infections caused by serovars Enteritidis (SE) and Typhimurium (STm) are major pediatric health problems in sub-Saharan Africa. Typhoid has high complication rates, and iNTS infections have high case fatality rates; moreover, emerging antimicrobial resistance is diminishing treatment options. Vi capsule-based typhoid conjugate vaccine (Typbar-TCV&trade;), licensed in India and pre-qualified by the World Health Organization, elicits durable immunity when administered to infants, but no iNTS vaccines are licensed or imminent. We have developed monovalent SE and STm glycoconjugate vaccines based on coupling lipopolysaccharide-derived core-O polysaccharide (COPS) to phase 1 flagellin protein (FliC) from the homologous serovar. Herein, we report the immunogenicity of multivalent formulations of iNTS COPS:FliC conjugates with Typbar-TCV&trade;. Rabbits immunized with the trivalent typhoid-iNTS glycoconjugate vaccine generated high titers of serum IgG antibody to all three polysaccharide antigens for which anti-COPS IgG antibodies were directed primarily against serogroup-specific OPS epitopes. Responses to SE and STm FliC were lower relative to anti-COPS titers. Post-vaccination rabbit sera mediated bactericidal activity in-vitro, and protected mice after passive transfer against challenge with virulent SE or STm Malian blood isolates. These results support accelerated progression to clinical trials