Annual and non-monsoon rainfall prediction modelling using SVR-MLP: an empirical study from Odisha

Rainfall is a natural demolishing phenomenon. On the other side, it also serves as a major source of water when conserved through proper channel. For this issue, estimation of rain fall is of at utmost importance. The present study employed on rain fall forecasting in annual as well as non-moon session in Odisha (India). The total annual rainfall and relative humidity data were collected from period 1991-2015 from Department of Forest and Environment Govt. of Odisha. Support Vector Regression and Multilayer perception implemented for prediction of maximum rainfall in annual and non-monsoon session. Input parameter like average temperature in month, wind velocity, humidity, and cloud cover was conceder for predicting rainfall in non-monsoon session. The performance of the results was measure with MSE (mean squared error), correlation coefficient, coefficient of efficiency and MAE (mean absolute error). The results of SVR were compared to those of MLP and simple regression technique. MLP being a computationally intensive method, SVR could be used as an efficient alternative for runoff and sediment yield prediction under comparable accuracy in predictions.SVR-MLP may be used as promising alternative forecasting tool for higher accuracy in forecasting and better generalization ability

Future Changes in Summer Precipitation in Regional Climate Simulations over the Korean Peninsula Forced by Multi-RCP Scenarios of HadGEM2-AO

In this study, the regional climate of the Korean Peninsula (KP) was dynamically downscaled using a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) forced by multi- representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios of HadGEM2-AO, and changes in summer precipitation were investigated. Through the evaluation of the present climate, the RCM reasonably reproduced long-term climatology of summer precipitation over the KP, and captured the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band. In future projections, all RCP experiments using different RCP radiative forcings (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 runs) simulated an increased summer precipitation over the KP. However, there were some differences in changing rates of summer precipitation among the RCP experiments. Future increases in summer precipitation were affected by future changes in moisture convergence and surface evaporation. Changing ranges in moisture convergences among RCP experiments were significantly larger than those in surface evaporation. This indicates that the uncertainty of changes in summer precipitation is related to the projection of the monsoon circulation, which determines the moisture convergence field through horizontal advection. Changes in the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band were inconsistent among RCP experiments. However, all experiments showed that Changma rain-band was enhanced during late June to early July, but it was weakened after mid-July due to the expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high. These results indicate that precipitation intensity related to Changma rain-band will be increased, but its duration will be reduced in the future.clos

Projections of High Resolution Climate Changes for South Korea Using Multiple-Regional Climate Models Based on Four RCP Scenarios. Part 1: Surface Air Temperature

We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor???s skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54oC/+1.92oC for RCP2.6, +1.68oC/+2.91oC for RCP4.5, +1.17oC/+3.11oC for RCP6.0, and +1.75oC/+4.73oC for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution.clos