The Copenhagen Criteria and the Challenge of Democratization in Turkey

The recent decision of the European Union (EU) at the Copenhagen summit to give Turkey a conditional date for accession review was less than what the Turkish government had hoped for. Previously at the Helsinki summit, the decision of the EU to include Turkey among the list of candidate countries for membership has eased tensions in the capitols of Western Allies. After two years of very cold relations the two sides seem to be moving toward better days. As a candidate for membership, Turkey has attained recognition from its European neighbors that it belongs in the European club of states – a status sought by Turkish and Ottoman governments for almost 150 years. However, unlike in the case of other candidate countries, accession talks were not to begin until Turkey completed a series of economic and political reforms. During the last year and a half, the Turkish governments succeeded in passing series of amendments to the Turkish Constitution and had hoped that the EU would grant Turkey a solid date in 2004, if not in 2003, for the start of accession negotiations. However, the outcome of the Copenhagen summit was to tell the Turks that their progress on democratization would be reviewed in December 2004. If at that time Turkish progress on Copenhagen criteria is judged favorably, the Commission would recommend start of accession negotiations without any further dela

Human Development Dynamics: An Agent Based Simulation of Macro Social Systems and Individual Heterogeneous Evolutionary Games

Purpose: In the context of modernization and development, a complex adaptive systems framework can help address the coupling of macro social constraint and opportunity with individual agency. Combining system dynamics and agent based modeling, we formalize a simulation approach of the Human Development (HD) perspective to explore the interactive effects of economics, culture, society and politics across multiple human scales. Methods: Based on a system of asymmetric, coupled nonlinear equations, we first capture the core qualitative logic of HD theory, empirically validated from World Values Survey (WVS) data. Using a simple evolutionary game approach, second we fuse endogenously derived individual socio-economic attribute changes with Prisoner’s Dilemma in an agent based model of the interactive political-cultural effects of heterogeneous, spatial intra-societal economic transactions. We then explore a new human development dynamics (HDD) model behavior via quasiglobal simulation methods to identify paths and pitfalls towards economic development, cultural plasticity, social and political change behavior. Results: Our preliminary results suggest strong nonlinear path dependence and complexity in three areas: adaptive development processes, co-evolutionary societal transactions and near equilibrium development trajectories, with significant implications for anticipating and managing positive development outcomes. Strong local epistatic interactions characterized by adaptive co-evolution, shape higher order global conditions and ultimately societal outcomes. Conclusions: Techno-social simulations such as this can provide scholars and policymakers alike insights into the nonlinear, complex adaptive effects of societal co-evolution. We believe complex adaptive or evolutionary systems approaches are necessary to understand both near and potentially catastrophic, far-from-equilibrium behavior and societal outcomes across all human scales of modernization

Political Performance, Leadership, and Regional Integration in Europe: An Examination of the French and German Roles

Prior research on a regional leader’s role in the deepening of regional integration assumes that economic power translates directly into political capabilities. Relative political capacity among states is central to the creation and deepening of regional integration since it is this capacity that smoothes out the transition from a closed to an open economy. Should a state have low levels of this capacity but desire openness, it will partner with regional leaders given the leaders’ higher relative political capacity. However, the leaders’ subsidy of a partner’s capacity comes at a price. The leaders would trade political capacity for forming a regional bloc along its preferences. A partner will join with a regional leader so long as it is satisfied with the leaders’ preferences. By doing so, it reduces the cost of the subsidy. Our analysis of European integration indicates that French and German relative political capacities are an important factor in the continent’s unifying efforts by conditioning institutional homogeneity and capital stocks mobility, both of which are critical for political and economic union. However, the German effect contrasts with the French effect in that we discover greater German effectiveness in mitigating potential barriers to integration

A Bounded Rationality Analysis of the Cyprus Problem

The time frame for a final decision on the Cyprus problem is narrowing very rapidly. The latest peace plan proposed by the U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, known as the Annan Plan, to solve the problem between the Greek Cypriot (G/Cs) and Turkish Cypriot (T/Cs) communities underwent the last refinements in February 2003 to bridge the gap between the two sides. Yet, despite intense domestic (especially in the Turkish north) and international pressures on the two sides to sign the agreement the Turkish Cypriot leadership rejected the proposal as being insufficient in meeting their demands. Despite the apparent low in negotiations between the two sides, there is still an opportunity to revive the Annan Plan as the basis for negotiated settlement before Cyprus joins the European Union (EU) in 2004. The U.S., the E.U., and the U.N. have all given signals that they are willing to tackle the problem before Cyprus joins the EU in 2004. Given the gravity of the present situation, we provide an expected utility analysis of the problem in an attempt to determine areas of mutual cooperation between the two sides that could resolve the apparent deadlock

Some expected and some not-so-expected Benefits of Turkey's EU Membership for both Parties

[From the introduction]. The decision of the European Union (EU) to start formal accession talks with Turkey in October 2005 marked a historic point in relations between the parties. As a candidate for membership, Turkey attained recognition from its European neighbors that it belongs in the European club of states – a status sought by Turkish and Ottoman governments for almost 150 years. However, unlike in the case of other accession, eventual membership still face certain unknown that might derail the whole exercise – e.g., Austrian and French uncertainty of granting Turkey membership, Germany’s worries over freedom of movement of labor, and the Greek Cypriots’ desire to use its veto card to obtain concessions from the Turks in Cyprus. Despite uncertain future of EU-Turkey relations, one thing remains clear. Without EU membership aspirations, it is questionable whether Turkish political elites would have moved so quickly to reform Turkey’s political system and bring it closer to those found in liberal representative democracies of the EU. Yet, despite these reforms on the economic and political fronts, events of recent months surrounding the election of the new president in 2007 demonstrated the delicate nature of Turkish democracy. Furthermore, series of reports published by different think tanks and the European Commission, outlined challenges and benefits of Turkey’s membership. In light of these considerations, this paper evaluates the effects of EU-accession reforms and membership on consolidation of democracy in Turkey, and assesses the benefits of Turkish membership for the EU

Changing Value Systems in the new European Union

This working paper examines changing value systems in the new European Union with a special focus on religiosity and tolerance. We found that few of the new E.U. members brought particularly intense religiosity into the Union. However, two that did, Poland and Romania, and the accession state Turkey, are all fairly large states. Post-materialist values and tolerance have both plateaued in early E.U. members, but newer members continue to align attitudes with E.U. policies promoting tolerance and diversity

Book Review of, Turkey\u27s State Crisis: Institutions, Reform, and Conflict

Book Review of Turkey\u27s State Crisis: Institutions, Reform, and Conflic

Book Review: The New Turkey and Its Discontents

Book review of The New Turkey and Its Discontents by Simon A. Waldman and Emre Caliskan

Unexpected Implications of an Expanding European Union

Using a power transition perspective, this presentation analyzes the regional and global implications of different enlargement formulations of the European Union (EU) during the first half of the 21st century. First, it assesses the consequences of expanded EU membership with varying enlargement scenarios on global power distributions and considers the EU\u27s position in the new world order. Next, it examines EU\u27s external economic and security relations and considers how they might be affected by future enlargement of the Union