A Bayesian Framework for Combining Valuation Estimates

Obtaining more accurate equity value estimates is the starting point for stock selection, value-based indexing in a noisy market, and beating benchmark indices through tactical style rotation. Unfortunately, discounted cash flow, method of comparables, and fundamental analysis typically yield discrepant valuation estimates. Moreover, the valuation estimates typically disagree with market price. Can one form a superior valuation estimate by averaging over the individual estimates, including market price? This article suggests a Bayesian framework for combining two or more estimates into a superior valuation estimate. The framework justifies the common practice of averaging over several estimates to arrive at a final point estimate.Comment: Citations at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=240309 Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 30.3 (2008) forthcomin

Ownership and Trade from Evolutionary Games

Ownership and trade emerge from anarchy as evolutionary stable strategies. In these evolutionary game models, ownership status provides an endogenous asymmetrizing criterion enabling cheaper resolution of property conflicts

A faint field-galaxy redshift survey in quasar fields

Quasars serve as excellent markers for the identification of high-redshift galaxies and galaxy clusters. In past surveys, nearly 20 clusters of Abell richness class 1 or richer associated with quasars in the redshift range 0.2 less than z less than 0.8 were identified. In order to study these galaxy clusters in detail, a major redshift survey of faint galaxies in these fields using the CFHT LAMA/MARLIN multi-object spectroscopy system was carried out. An equally important product in such a survey is the redshifts of the field galaxies not associated with the quasars. Some preliminary results on field galaxies from an interim set of data from our redshift survey in quasar fields are presented

Quasars in rich galaxy clusters

The evolution of AGN activity in rich clusters of galaxies is found to be approximately 5 times more rapid than that in poor clusters. This rapid evolution may be driven by evolution in the dynamics of galaxy cluster cores. Results from our spectroscopic studies of galaxies associated with quasars are consistent with this scenario, in that bright AGN are preferentially found in regions of lower velocity dispersion. Alternately, the evolution may be driven by formation of a dense intra-cluster medium (ICM). Galaxies close to quasars in rich cluster cores are much bluer (presumably gas rich) than galaxies in the cores of other rich clusters, in support of this model

An alternative resource sharing scheme for land mobile satellite services

A preliminary comparison between the two competing channelization concepts for the Land Mobile Satellite Services (LMSS), namely frequency division (FD) and code division (CD), is presented. Both random access and demand-assigned approaches are considered under these concepts. The CD concept is compared with the traditional FD concept based on the system consideration and a projected traffic model. It is shown that CD is not particularly attractive for the first generation Mobile Satellite Services because of the spectral occupancy of the network bandwidth. However, the CD concept is a viable alternative for future systems such as the personal access satellite system (PASS) in the Ka-band spectrum where spectral efficiency is not of prime concern. The effects of power robbing and voice activity factor are incorporated. It was shown that the traditional rule of thumb of dividing the number of raw channels by the voice activity factor to obtain the effective number of channels is only valid asymptotically as the aggregated traffic approaches infinity