A Bayesian Maximum Entropy approach to address the change of support problem in the spatial analysis of childhood asthma prevalence across North Carolina

The spatial analysis of data observed at different spatial observation scales leads to the change of support problem (COSP). A solution to the COSP widely used in linear spatial statistics consists in explicitly modeling the spatial autocorrelation of the variable observed at different spatial scales. We present a novel approach that takes advantage of the nonlinear Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) extension of linear spatial statistics to address the COSP directly without relying on the classical linear approach. Our procedure consists in modeling data observed over large areas as soft data for the process at the local scale. We demonstrate the application of our approach to obtain spatially detailed maps of childhood asthma prevalence across North Carolina (NC). Because of the high prevalence of childhood asthma in NC, the small number problem is not an issue, so we can focus our attention solely to the COSP of integrating prevalence data observed at the county level together with data observed at a targeted local scale equivalent to the scale of school districts. Our spatially detailed maps can be used for different applications ranging from exploratory and hypothesis-generating analyses to targeting intervention and exposure mitigation efforts

Defining Emergency Department Asthma Visits for Public Health Surveillance, North Carolina, 2008–2009

IntroductionWhen using emergency department (ED) data sets for public health surveillance, a standard approach is needed to define visits attributable to asthma. Asthma can be the first (primary) or a subsequent (2nd through 11th) diagnosis. Our study objective was to develop a definition of ED visits attributable to asthma for public health surveillance. We evaluated the effect of including visits with an asthma diagnosis in primary-only versus subsequent positions.MethodsThe study was a cross-sectional analysis of population-level ED surveillance data. Of the 114 North Carolina EDs eligible to participate in a statewide surveillance system in 2008–2009, we used data from the 111 (97%) that participated during those years. Included were all ED visits with an ICD-9-CM diagnosis code for asthma in any diagnosis position (1 through 11). We formed 11 strata based on the diagnosis position of asthma and described common chief complaint and primary diagnosis categories for each. Prevalence ratios compared each category’s proportion of visits that received either asthma- or cardiac-related procedure codes.ResultsRespiratory diagnoses were most common in records of ED visits in which asthma was the first or second diagnosis, while primary diagnoses of injury and heart disease were more common when asthma appeared in positions 3–11. Asthma-related chief complaints and procedures were most common when asthma was the first or second diagnosis, whereas cardiac procedures were more common in records with asthma in positions 3–11.ConclusionED visits should be defined as asthma-related when asthma is in the first or second diagnosis position

Prevalence of Symptoms of Severe Asthma and Allergies in Irish School Children: An ISAAC Protocol Study, 1995–2007

Childhood asthma is a recurring health burden and symptoms of severe asthma in children are also emerging as a health and economic issue. This study examined changing patterns in symptoms of severe asthma and allergies (ever eczema and hay fever), using the Irish International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) protocol. ISAAC is a cross-sectional self-administered questionnaire survey of randomly selected representative post-primary schools. Children aged 13–14 years were studied: 2,670 (in 1995), 2,273 (in 1998), 2,892 (in 2002–2003), and 2,805 (in 2007). Generalized linear modelling using Poisson distribution was employed to compute adjusted prevalence ratios (PR). A 39% significant increase in symptoms of severe asthma was estimated in 2007 relative to the baseline year 1995 (adjusted PR: 1.39 [95% CI: 1.14–1.69]) increasing from 12% in 1995 to 15.3% in 2007. Opposite trends were observed for allergies, showing a decline in 2007, with an initial rise. The potential explanations for such a complex disease pattern whose aetiological hypothesis is still evolving are speculative. Changing environmental factors may be a factor, for instance, an improvement in both outdoor and indoor air quality further reinforcing the hygiene hypothesis but obesity as a disease modifier must also be considered

Population-based burden of COPD-related visits in the ED: Return ED visits, hospital admissions, and comorbidity risks

Little is known about the population-based burden of ED care for COPD

Conducting Environmental Health Research in the Arabian Middle East: Lessons Learned and Opportunities

Background: The Arabian Gulf nations are undergoing rapid economic development, leading to major shifts in both the traditional lifestyle and the environment. Although the pace of change is brisk, there is a dearth of environmental health research in this region

National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale An Alternative Primary Outcome Measure for Trials of Acute Treatment for Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose- The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 3 months is the most commonly used primary outcome measure in stroke treatment trials, but it lacks specificity and requires long-term follow-up interviews, which consume time and resources. An alternative may be the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), early after stroke. Our aim was to evaluate whether the NIHSS assessed within 1 week after treatment could serve as a primary outcome measure for trials of acute treatment for ischemic stroke. Methods- We used data from 2 randomized controlled trials of endovascular treatment for ischemic stroke: the positive MR CLEAN (Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial of Endovascular Treatment for Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands; N=500) and the neutral IMS (Interventional Management of Stroke) III trial (N=656). We used a causal mediation model, with linear and ordinal logistic regression adjusted for confounders, to evaluate the NIHSS 24 hours and 5 to 7 days after endovascular treatment as primary outcome measures (instead of the mRS at 3 months) in both trials. Patients who had died before the NIHSS was assessed received the maximum score of 42. NIHSS+1 was then log10-transformed. Results- In both trials, there was a significant correlation between the NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days and the mRS. In MR CLEAN, we found a significant effect of endovascular treatment on the mRS and on the NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days. After adjustment for NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days, the effect of endovascular treatment on the mRS decreased from common odds ratio 1.68 (95% CI, 1.22-2.32) to respectively 1.36 (95% CI, 0.97-1.91) and 1.24 (95% CI, 0.87-1.79), indicating that treatment effect on the mRS is in large part mediated by the NIHSS. In the IMS III trial there was no treatment effect on the NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days, corresponding with the absence of a treatment effect on the mRS. Conclusions- The NIHSS within 1 week satisfies the requirements for a surrogate end point and may be used as a primary outcome measure in trials of acute treatment for ischemic stroke, particularly in phase II(b) trials. This could reduce stroke-outcome assessment to its essentials (ie, neurological deficit), and reduce trial duration and costs. Whether and under which conditions it could be used in phase III trials requires a debate in the field with all parties. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN10888758; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00359424.</p

Prescription of respiratory medication without an asthma diagnosis in children: a population based study

Background. In pre-school children a diagnosis of asthma is not easily made and only a minority of wheezing children will develop persistent atopic asthma. According to the general consensus a diagnosis of asthma becomes more certain with increasing age. Therefore the congruence between asthma medication use and doctor-diagnosed asthma is expected to increase with age. The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship between prescribing of asthma medication and doctor-diagnosed asthma in children age 0-17. Methods. We studied all 74,580 children below 18 years of age, belonging to 95 GP practices within the second Dutch national survey of general practice (DNSGP-2), in which GPs registered all physician-patient contacts during the year 2001. Status on prescribing of asthma medication (at least one prescription for beta2-agonists, inhaled corticosteroids, cromones or montelukast) and doctor-diagnosed asthma (coded according to the International Classification of Primary Care) was determined. Results. In total 7.5% of children received asthma medication and 4.1% had a diagnosis of asthma. Only 49% of all children receiving asthma medication was diagnosed as an asthmatic. Subgroup analyses on age, gender and therapy groups showed that the Positive Predictive Value (PPV) differs significantly between therapy groups only. The likelihood of having doctor-diagnosed asthma increased when a child received combination therapy of short acting beta2-agonists and inhaled corticosteroids (PPV = 0.64) and with the number of prescriptions (3 prescriptions or more, PPV = 0.66). Both prescribing of asthma medication and doctor-diagnosed asthma declined with age but the congruence between the two measures did not increase with age. Conclusion. In this study, less than half of all children receiving asthma medication had a registered diagnosis of asthma. Detailed subgroup analyses show that a diagnosis of asthma was present in at most 66%, even in groups of children treated intensively with asthma medication. Although age strongly influences the chance of being treated, remarkably, the congruence between prescribing of asthma medication and doctor-diagnosed asthma does not increase with age

Association of Childhood Obesity With Atopic and Nonatopic Asthma: Results From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2006

Obesity and asthma prevalence have both risen among children over the last several decades, and research efforts increasingly suggest that obesity is associated with asthma. Some, but not all, studies have shown that the effect of obesity on asthma is stronger among non-atopic individuals than among those with atopy. Systemic inflammation may be a factor in this relationship