Predicting the outcome of chronic kidney disease by the estimated nephron number: The rationale and design of PRONEP, a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The nephron number is thought to be associated with the outcome of chronic kidney disease (CKD). If the nephron number can be estimated in the clinical setting, it could become a strong tool to predict renal outcome. This study was designed to estimate the nephron number in CKD patients and to establish a method to predict the outcome by using the estimated nephron number.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The hypothesis of this study is that the estimated nephron number can predict the outcome of a CKD patient. This will be a multicenter, prospective (minimum 3 and maximum 5 years follow-up) study. The subjects will comprise CKD patients aged over 14 years who have undergone a kidney biopsy. From January 2011 to March 2013, we will recruit 600 CKD patients from 10 hospitals belonging to the National Hospital Organization of Japan. The primary parameter for assessment is the composite of total mortality, renal death, cerebro-cardiovascular events, and a 50% reduction in the eGFR. The secondary parameter is the rate of eGFR decline per year. The nephron number will be estimated by the glomerular density in biopsy specimens and the renal cortex volume. This study includes one sub-cohort study to establish the equation to calculate the renal cortex volume. Enrollment will be performed at the time of the kidney biopsy, and the data will consist of a medical interview, ultrasound for measurement of the kidney size, blood or urine test, and the pathological findings of the kidney biopsy. Patients will continue to have medical consultations and receive examinations and/or treatment as usual. The data from the patients will be collected once a year after the kidney biopsy until March 2016. All data using this study are easily obtained in routine clinical practice.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study includes the first trials to estimate the renal cortex volume and nephron number in the general clinical setting. Furthermore, this is the first prospective study to examine whether the nephron number predicts the outcome of CKD patients. The results from this study should provide powerful new tools for nephrologists in routine clinical practice.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>UMIN-Clinical Trial Registration, UMIN000004784.</p

Unfavorable effects of history of volume overload and late referral to a nephrologist on mortality in patients initiating dialysis: a multicenter prospective cohort study in Japan

Abstract Background Patients with late referral and positive history of volume overload may have a poor prognosis after initiating dialysis due to insufficient and/or inadequate management of complications of renal failure and the lack of better dialysis preparation. Little is known about the influence of the relationship between history of volume overload and late referral on prognosis. Methods We analyzed 1475 patients who had initiated dialysis for the first time from October 2011 to September 2013. late referral was defined as referral to a nephrologist < 3 months before dialysis initiation. The major outcomes were all-cause death and deaths due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The impact of late referral and history of volume overload on all-cause mortality was assessed by Cox proportional hazards models. Results Among 1475 patients, the mean patient age was 67.5 years. During the median follow-up of 2.2 years, 260 deaths occurred; 99 were due to CVD. Cox proportional hazards models demonstrated that late referral (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00–1.82) and history of volume overload (adjusted HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.06–1.81) were risk factors for all-cause mortality. Furthermore, late referral coexisting was associated with a history of volume overload increased mortality (adjusted HR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.39–3.16 versus absence of late referral without history of volume overload) after adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, atherosclerotic disease, and laboratory values. Conclusions Both late referral and history of volume overload were associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality. Trial registration University Hospital Medical Information Network (UMIN000007096). Registered 18 January 2012, retrospectively registered. https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000008349

Additional file 1: of Unfavorable effects of history of volume overload and late referral to a nephrologist on mortality in patients initiating dialysis: a multicenter prospective cohort study in Japan

Table S1. Background characteristics of patients who underwent or did not undergo echocardiography. (DOCX 35 kb