Monitoring data set.

<p>Annual changes in the number of dead trees over fifteen years after the introduction of <i>Bursaphelencus xylophilus</i> at seven locations in China.</p

Invasion data and potential driving factors.

<p>The pinewood nematode invasion in China between 1982 and 2005 (Panel A). The first pinewood nematode observation in China (in Nanjing) is represented by a white star. Spatial distribution of 10 susceptible tree species (Panel B). Black dots represent locations already infested. Potential anthropogenic pathways (Panel C), and spatial distribution of human-population density in 2000 (Panel D).</p

Pathways.

<p>Results of the Wilcoxon test to compare the effects of rivers, river ports, lakes, railways and human population density (<i>H</i>) between infested points and random points, for three neighbourhoods (<i>N</i>120, <i>N</i>60, <i>N</i>30). The sample size of both datasets (observed and random data) was <i>n</i> = 156.</p

Climate suitability and model prediction of the invasion probability under various climate scenarios.

<p>Potentially favourable areas according to normal temperatures over 1951–1980 (dark red), and 3°C of temperature increase (dark+light red is the potential expansion area) (Panel A). White dots represent locations already infested. Invasion probability predicted by the dispersal model: in 2005 (Panel B), in 2025 under the assumption of a stable climate (Panel C), and in 2025 under the assumption of a constant warming (+0.03°C/yr) (Panel D). White dots represent locations infested until 2005, and in Panel A, white dots with a black point inside represent infested locations where the predicted invasion probability in 2005 is zero.</p

Estimation of short and long distance dispersal ability from data analysis.

<p>Distance spread (up to 100 km) from the first introduction point around Nanjing (Panel A). Corrected invasion probability as a function of human population density (Panel B). The grey line is the regression line. Grey dots were discarded from this analysis. Long-distance dispersal kernels (Panel C): observed probabilities over 1982–2005 (dash line), observed probabilities before and after 2001 (grey and black dots, respectively), and estimated probabilities before and after 2001 (grey and black lines, respectively).</p