Risk factors for Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) death in a population cohort study from the Western Cape province, South Africa

Risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) death in sub-Saharan Africa and the effects of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis on COVID-19 outcomes are unknown. We conducted a population cohort study using linked data from adults attending public-sector health facilities in the Western Cape, South Africa. We used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, location, and comorbidities, to examine the associations between HIV, tuberculosis, and COVID-19 death from 1 March to 9 June 2020 among (1) public-sector “active patients” (≥1 visit in the 3 years before March 2020); (2) laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 cases; and (3) hospitalized COVID-19 cases. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for COVID-19, comparing adults living with and without HIV using modeled population estimates.Among 3 460 932 patients (16% living with HIV), 22 308 were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 625 died. COVID19 death was associated with male sex, increasing age, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. HIV was associated with COVID-19 mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.70–2.70), with similar risks across strata of viral loads and immunosuppression. Current and previous diagnoses of tuberculosis were associated with COVID-19 death (aHR, 2.70 [95% CI, 1.81–4.04] and 1.51 [95% CI, 1.18–1.93], respectively). The SMR for COVID-19 death associated with HIV was 2.39 (95% CI, 1.96–2.86); population attributable fraction 8.5% (95% CI, 6.1–11.1)

Fraction dead vs time from triage, by latent class.

Fraction dead vs time from triage, by latent class.</p

Demographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics of the sample.

Demographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics of the sample.</p

Fraction dead vs. time from triage, by wave.

BackgroundCOVID-19 experiences on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) from district-level hospital settings during waves I and II are scarcely documented. The aim of this study is to investigate the NCDs associated with COVID-19 severity and mortality in a district-level hospital with a high HIV/TB burden.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study that compared COVID-19 waves I and II at Khayelitsha District Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. COVID-19 adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or positive antigen test were included. In order to compare the inter wave period, clinical and laboratory parameters on hospital admission of noncommunicable diseases, the Student t-test or Mann-Whitney U for continuous data and the X2 test or Fishers’ Exact test for categorical data were used. The role of the NCD subpopulation on COVID-19 mortality was determined using latent class analysis (LCA).FindingsAmong 560 patients admitted with COVID-19, patients admitted during wave II were significantly older than those admitted during wave I. The most prevalent comorbidity patterns were hypertension (87%), diabetes mellitus (65%), HIV/AIDS (30%), obesity (19%), Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (13%), Congestive Cardiac Failure (CCF) (8.8%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) (3%), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA)/stroke (3%), with similar prevalence in both waves except HIV status [(23% vs 34% waves II and I, respectively), p = 0.022], obesity [(52% vs 2.5%, waves II and I, respectively), p ConclusionEven though clinical and laboratory characteristics differed significantly between the two waves, mortality remained constant. According to LCA, the cardiovascular, diabetes, and CKD phenotypes had the highest death probability.</div

Triage data and laboratory results.

BackgroundCOVID-19 experiences on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) from district-level hospital settings during waves I and II are scarcely documented. The aim of this study is to investigate the NCDs associated with COVID-19 severity and mortality in a district-level hospital with a high HIV/TB burden.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study that compared COVID-19 waves I and II at Khayelitsha District Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. COVID-19 adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or positive antigen test were included. In order to compare the inter wave period, clinical and laboratory parameters on hospital admission of noncommunicable diseases, the Student t-test or Mann-Whitney U for continuous data and the X2 test or Fishers’ Exact test for categorical data were used. The role of the NCD subpopulation on COVID-19 mortality was determined using latent class analysis (LCA).FindingsAmong 560 patients admitted with COVID-19, patients admitted during wave II were significantly older than those admitted during wave I. The most prevalent comorbidity patterns were hypertension (87%), diabetes mellitus (65%), HIV/AIDS (30%), obesity (19%), Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (13%), Congestive Cardiac Failure (CCF) (8.8%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) (3%), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA)/stroke (3%), with similar prevalence in both waves except HIV status [(23% vs 34% waves II and I, respectively), p = 0.022], obesity [(52% vs 2.5%, waves II and I, respectively), p ConclusionEven though clinical and laboratory characteristics differed significantly between the two waves, mortality remained constant. According to LCA, the cardiovascular, diabetes, and CKD phenotypes had the highest death probability.</div

Comorbid patterns by latent disease class.

BackgroundCOVID-19 experiences on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) from district-level hospital settings during waves I and II are scarcely documented. The aim of this study is to investigate the NCDs associated with COVID-19 severity and mortality in a district-level hospital with a high HIV/TB burden.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study that compared COVID-19 waves I and II at Khayelitsha District Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. COVID-19 adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or positive antigen test were included. In order to compare the inter wave period, clinical and laboratory parameters on hospital admission of noncommunicable diseases, the Student t-test or Mann-Whitney U for continuous data and the X2 test or Fishers’ Exact test for categorical data were used. The role of the NCD subpopulation on COVID-19 mortality was determined using latent class analysis (LCA).FindingsAmong 560 patients admitted with COVID-19, patients admitted during wave II were significantly older than those admitted during wave I. The most prevalent comorbidity patterns were hypertension (87%), diabetes mellitus (65%), HIV/AIDS (30%), obesity (19%), Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (13%), Congestive Cardiac Failure (CCF) (8.8%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) (3%), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA)/stroke (3%), with similar prevalence in both waves except HIV status [(23% vs 34% waves II and I, respectively), p = 0.022], obesity [(52% vs 2.5%, waves II and I, respectively), p ConclusionEven though clinical and laboratory characteristics differed significantly between the two waves, mortality remained constant. According to LCA, the cardiovascular, diabetes, and CKD phenotypes had the highest death probability.</div

Interventions.

BackgroundCOVID-19 experiences on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) from district-level hospital settings during waves I and II are scarcely documented. The aim of this study is to investigate the NCDs associated with COVID-19 severity and mortality in a district-level hospital with a high HIV/TB burden.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study that compared COVID-19 waves I and II at Khayelitsha District Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. COVID-19 adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or positive antigen test were included. In order to compare the inter wave period, clinical and laboratory parameters on hospital admission of noncommunicable diseases, the Student t-test or Mann-Whitney U for continuous data and the X2 test or Fishers’ Exact test for categorical data were used. The role of the NCD subpopulation on COVID-19 mortality was determined using latent class analysis (LCA).FindingsAmong 560 patients admitted with COVID-19, patients admitted during wave II were significantly older than those admitted during wave I. The most prevalent comorbidity patterns were hypertension (87%), diabetes mellitus (65%), HIV/AIDS (30%), obesity (19%), Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (13%), Congestive Cardiac Failure (CCF) (8.8%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) (3%), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA)/stroke (3%), with similar prevalence in both waves except HIV status [(23% vs 34% waves II and I, respectively), p = 0.022], obesity [(52% vs 2.5%, waves II and I, respectively), p ConclusionEven though clinical and laboratory characteristics differed significantly between the two waves, mortality remained constant. According to LCA, the cardiovascular, diabetes, and CKD phenotypes had the highest death probability.</div

Reported complications.

BackgroundCOVID-19 experiences on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) from district-level hospital settings during waves I and II are scarcely documented. The aim of this study is to investigate the NCDs associated with COVID-19 severity and mortality in a district-level hospital with a high HIV/TB burden.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study that compared COVID-19 waves I and II at Khayelitsha District Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. COVID-19 adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or positive antigen test were included. In order to compare the inter wave period, clinical and laboratory parameters on hospital admission of noncommunicable diseases, the Student t-test or Mann-Whitney U for continuous data and the X2 test or Fishers’ Exact test for categorical data were used. The role of the NCD subpopulation on COVID-19 mortality was determined using latent class analysis (LCA).FindingsAmong 560 patients admitted with COVID-19, patients admitted during wave II were significantly older than those admitted during wave I. The most prevalent comorbidity patterns were hypertension (87%), diabetes mellitus (65%), HIV/AIDS (30%), obesity (19%), Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (13%), Congestive Cardiac Failure (CCF) (8.8%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) (3%), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA)/stroke (3%), with similar prevalence in both waves except HIV status [(23% vs 34% waves II and I, respectively), p = 0.022], obesity [(52% vs 2.5%, waves II and I, respectively), p ConclusionEven though clinical and laboratory characteristics differed significantly between the two waves, mortality remained constant. According to LCA, the cardiovascular, diabetes, and CKD phenotypes had the highest death probability.</div

S1 Dataset -

BackgroundCOVID-19 experiences on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) from district-level hospital settings during waves I and II are scarcely documented. The aim of this study is to investigate the NCDs associated with COVID-19 severity and mortality in a district-level hospital with a high HIV/TB burden.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study that compared COVID-19 waves I and II at Khayelitsha District Hospital in Cape Town, South Africa. COVID-19 adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or positive antigen test were included. In order to compare the inter wave period, clinical and laboratory parameters on hospital admission of noncommunicable diseases, the Student t-test or Mann-Whitney U for continuous data and the X2 test or Fishers’ Exact test for categorical data were used. The role of the NCD subpopulation on COVID-19 mortality was determined using latent class analysis (LCA).FindingsAmong 560 patients admitted with COVID-19, patients admitted during wave II were significantly older than those admitted during wave I. The most prevalent comorbidity patterns were hypertension (87%), diabetes mellitus (65%), HIV/AIDS (30%), obesity (19%), Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) (13%), Congestive Cardiac Failure (CCF) (8.8%), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) (3%), cerebrovascular accidents (CVA)/stroke (3%), with similar prevalence in both waves except HIV status [(23% vs 34% waves II and I, respectively), p = 0.022], obesity [(52% vs 2.5%, waves II and I, respectively), p ConclusionEven though clinical and laboratory characteristics differed significantly between the two waves, mortality remained constant. According to LCA, the cardiovascular, diabetes, and CKD phenotypes had the highest death probability.</div

Distribution of hospital admission by triage date.

Distribution of hospital admission by triage date.</p