Measuring the Impacts of Prime-age Adult Death on Rural Households in Kenya

Using a two-year panel of 1,422 Kenyan households surveyed in 1997 and 2000, we measure how primeage adult mortality affects rural households’ size and composition, agricultural production, asset levels, and off-farm income. First, the paper uses adult mortality rates from available data on an HIV-negative sample from neighboring Tanzania to predict the number of deaths that might have been expected in the absence of HIV, and compares this to the number of deaths actually recorded over the survey interval in the Kenyan sample. Based on this procedure, only a quarter of the prime-age female deaths in the 25-34 age range and about half of the male deaths in the 35-44 year age range age range could have been predicted on the basis of the HIV-negative Tanzanian adult mortality rates. In the Nyanza area, the discrepancies were even larger over a broader number of age/sex ranges. This provides a strong indication that AIDS accounts for a large proportion of the recorded deaths for these age/sex categories, particularly in the Nyanza area. Next, using a household fixed-effects model that controls for time-varying effects, we measure changes in outcomes between households afflicted by adult mortality vs. those not afflicted over the three-year survey period. The effects of adult death are highly sensitive to the gender and position of the deceased family member in the household. Households suffering the death of the head -of-household or spouse incurred a greater-than-one person loss in household size. The death of a male household head between 16 and 59 years is associated with a 68% reduction in the net value of the household’s crop production. However, these results are sensitive to age ranges chosen. Female head-of-household or spouse mortality causes a greater decline in cereal area cultivated, while cash crops such as coffee, tea, and sugar are most adversely affected in households incurring the death of a prime-age male head. Off-farm income is also significantly affected by the death of the male head of household, but not in the case of other adult members. The death of other prime-age family members is partially offset by an inflow of other individuals into the family. Other prime-age family members’ mortality has less dramatic effects on the households’ agricultural production, assets, and off-farm income. Lastly, there is little indication that households are able to recover quickly from the effects of prime-age head-of-household adult mortality; the effects on crop and non-farm incomes do not decay at least over the three-year survey interval. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of these findings for agricultural research and extension programs as well as for safety net programs designed to cushion the impacts of prime-age adult death.HIV/AIDS, Kenya, agricultural production, adult death, Health Economics and Policy, Q18,

MEASURING THE IMPACTS OF PRIME-AGE ADULT DEATH ON RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN KENYA

Using a two-year panel of 1,422 Kenyan households surveyed in 1997 and 2000, we measure how prime-age adult mortality affects rural households' size and composition, agricultural production, asset levels, and off-farm income. First, the paper uses adult mortality rates from available data on an HIV-negative sample from neighboring Tanzania to predict the number of deaths that might have been expected in the absence of HIV, and compares this to the number of deaths actually recorded over the survey interval in the Kenyan sample. Based on this procedure, only a quarter of the prime-age female deaths in the 25-34 age range and about half of the male deaths in the 35-44 year age range age range could have been predicted on the basis of the HIV-negative Tanzanian adult mortality rates. In the Nyanza area, the discrepancies were even larger over a broader number of age/sex ranges. This provides a strong indication that AIDS accounts for a large proportion of the recorded deaths for these age/sex categories, particularly in the Nyanza area. Next, using a household fixed-effects model that controls for time-varying effects, we measure changes in outcomes between households afflicted by adult mortality vs. those not afflicted over the three-year survey period. The effects of adult death are highly sensitive to the gender and position of the deceased family member in the household. Households suffering the death of the head -of-household or spouse incurred a greater-than-one person loss in household size. The death of a male household head between 16 and 59 years is associated with a 68% reduction in the net value of the household's crop production. Female head-of-household or spouse mortality causes a greater decline in cereal area cultivated, while cash crops such as coffee, tea, and sugar are most adversely affected in households incurring the death of a prime-age male head. Off-farm income is also significantly affected by the death of the male head of household, but not in the case of other adult members. The death of other prime-age family members is partially offset by an inflow of other individuals into the family. Other prime-age family members' mortality has less dramatic effects on the households' agricultural production, assets, and off-farm income. Lastly, there is little indication that households are able to recover quickly from the effects of prime-age head-of-household adult mortality; the effects on crop and non-farm incomes do not decay at least over the three-year survey interval. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of these findings for agricultural research and extension programs as well as for safety net programs designed to cushion the impacts of prime-age adult death.Consumer/Household Economics,

Measuring the Effects of Prime-age Adult Mortality in Kenya

Published by Tegemeo Institute for Agricultural Policy and Developmentfood security, food policy, Kenya, prime-age adult mortality, Health Economics and Policy, Q18,

Working-age Adult Mortality and Primary Sschool Attendance in Rural Kenya

The rapid increase in adult mortality due to the AIDS epidemic in sub- Saharan Africa raises great concern about its impact on child welfare. This article estimates the impact of AIDS-related adult mortality on primary school attendance in rural Kenya using a panel of 1,266 households surveyed in 1997, 2000, and 2002. We find a strong correlation between working-age adult mortality and lagged HIV- prevalence rates at nearby sentinel survey sites. School attendance, especially for children in relatively poor households, is negatively correlated with lagged provincial HIV-prevalence rates. Children, especially girls in relatively poor households, are less likely to be in school directly prior to the death of an adult member than children in unafflicted households. By contrast, boys in relatively poor households are less likely to be in school after an adult death. The evidence indicates that rising adult mortality in rural Kenya is adversely affecting primary school attendance especially among the poor. However, these results measure only short-term impacts. Over the longer run, whether school attendance in afflicted household rebounds or deteriorates further is unknown.HIV/AIDS, Education, Kenya

Working-Age Adult Mortality and Primary School Attendance in Rural Kenya

The rapid increase in adult mortality due to the AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa raises great concern about potential intergenerational effects on children. This article estimates the impact of AIDS-related adult mortality on primary school attendance in rural Kenya using a panel of 1,266 households surveyed in 1997, 2000, and 2002. The paper distinguishes between effects on boys’ and girls’ education to understand potential gender differences resulting from adult mortality. We also estimate how adult mortality affects child schooling before as well as after the death occurs. The paper also estimates the importance of households’ initial asset levels in influencing the relationship between adult mortality and child school attendance. We find that all of these distinctions are important when estimating the magnitude of the effects of adult mortality on child school attendance. The probability that girls in initially poor households will remain in school prior to the death of a working age adult in the household drops from roughly 88% to 55%. Boys in relatively poor households are less likely than girls to be in school after an adult death. By contrast, we find no clear effects on girls’ or boys’ education among relatively non-poor households, either before or after the timing of adult mortality in the household. We find a strong correlation between working-age adult mortality in our data and lagged HIV-prevalence rates at nearby sentinel survey sites. The evidence indicates that rising AIDS-related adult mortality in rural Kenya is adversely affecting primary school attendance among the poor. However, these results measure only short-term impacts. Over the longer run, whether school attendance in afflicted household rebounds or deteriorates further is unknown.HIV/AIDS, Kenya, Education, Health Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital, O12, O15, J10, Q12,

Working-age Adult Mortality and Primary School Attendance in Rural Kenya

Published by Tegemeo Institute for Agricultural Policy and Developmentfood security, food policy, Kenya, adult mortality, education, Health Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital, Q18,

Interlinked Credit and Farm Intensification: Evidence from Kenya

This paper addresses the potential for interlinked credit/input/output marketing arrangements for cash crops to promote food crop intensification. Using panel survey data from Kenya, we estimate a household fixed-effects model of fertilizer use per hectare of food crops. Results indicate that households engaging in interlinked marketing programs for selected cash crops applied considerably more fertilizer on other crops (primarily cereals) not directly purchased by the cash crop trading firm. These findings suggest that, in addition to the direct stimulus that interlinked cash crop marketing arrangements can have on small farmer incomes, these institutional arrangements may provide spillover benefits for the productivity of farmers' other activities such as food cropping.Agricultural Finance,

MEASURING THE IMPACTS OF PRIME-AGE ADULT DEATH ON RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN KENYA

Using a two-year panel of 1,422 Kenyan households surveyed in 1997 and 2000, we measure how working-age adult mortality affects rural households= size and composition, crop production, asset levels, and off-farm income. First, the paper uses adult mortality rates from available data on an HIV-negative sample to predict the proportion of deaths observed between 1997 and 2000 due to AIDS. Next, using a difference-in-differences estimation, we measure changes in outcomes between households afflicted by adult mortality vs. those not afflicted over the three-year survey period. The effects of adult mortality are highly sensitive to the gender and position of the deceased family member in the household. Households suffering the death of the head-of-household or spouse incurred a greater-than-one person loss in household size. The death of a male head-of-household between 16 and 59 years is associated with a 68% reduction in the net value of the household=s crop production. Female head-of-household or spouse mortality causes a greater decline in cereal area cultivated, while cash crops such as coffee, tea, and sugar are most adversely affected in households incurring the death of a male head-of-household. Off-farm income is also significantly affected by the death of the male head-of-household, but not in the case of other adult members. The death of other working-age family members is partially offset by an inflow of other individuals into the family and has less dramatic effects on the households= agricultural production, assets, and off-farm income. The effects of adult mortality are also sensitive to the household=s initial asset levels. Lastly, there is little indication that households are able to recover quickly from the effects of working-age head-of-household adult mortality; the effects on crop and non-farm incomes do not decay at least over the three-year survey interval.Consumer/Household Economics,

Persistence in a Random Bond Ising Model of Socio-Econo Dynamics

We study the persistence phenomenon in a socio-econo dynamics model using computer simulations at a finite temperature on hypercubic lattices in dimensions up to 5. The model includes a ` social\rq local field which contains the magnetization at time $t$. The nearest neighbour quenched interactions are drawn from a binary distribution which is a function of the bond concentration, $p$. The decay of the persistence probability in the model depends on both the spatial dimension and $p$. We find no evidence of ` blocking\rq in this model. We also discuss the implications of our results for possible applications in the social and economic fields. It is suggested that the absence, or otherwise, of blocking could be used as a criterion to decide on the validity of a given model in different scenarios.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure