The 2008 election: A preregistered replication analysis

We present an increasingly stringent set of replications of Ghitza & Gelman (2013), a multilevel regression and poststratification analysis of polls from the 2008 U.S. presidential election campaign, focusing on a set of plots showing the estimated Republican vote share for whites and for all voters, as a function of income level in each of the states. We start with a nearly-exact duplication that uses the posted code and changes only the model-fitting algorithm; we then replicate using already-analyzed data from 2004; and finally we set up preregistered replications using two surveys from 2008 that we had not previously looked at. We have already learned from our preliminary, non-preregistered replication, which has revealed a potential problem with the published analysis of Ghitza & Gelman (2013); it appears that our model may not sufficiently account for nonsampling error, and that some of the patterns presented in that earlier paper may simply reflect noise. In addition to the substantive interest in validating earlier findings about demographics, geography, and voting, the present project serves as a demonstration of preregistration in a setting where the subject matter is historical (and thus the replication data exist before the preregistration plan is written) and where the analysis is exploratory (and thus a replication cannot be simply deemed successful or unsuccessful based on the statistical significance of some particular comparison).Comment: This article is a review and preregistration plan. It will be published, along with a new Section 5 describing the results of the preregistered analysis, in Statistics and Public Polic

Are conservatives overconfident?

Recent studies suggest psychological differences between conservatives and liberals, including that conservatives are more overconfident. We use a behavioral political economy model to show that while this is undoubtedly true for election years in the current era, there is no reason to believe that conservative ideologies are intrinsically linked to overconfidence. Indeed, it appears that in 1980 and before, conservatives and liberals were equally overconfident

Fusion of gaze with hierarchical image segmentation for robust object detection

Thesis (M. Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2004.Includes bibliographical references (p. 41).We present Flycatcher, a prototype system illustrating the idea of gaze- based image processing in the context of object segmentation for wearable photography. The prototype includes a wearable eye tracking device that captures real-time eyetraces of a user, and a wearable video camera that captures first-person perspective images of the user's visual environment. The system combines the deliberate eyetraces of the user with hierarchical image segmentation applied to scene images to achieve reliable object segmentation. In evaluations with certain classes of real-world images, fusion of gaze and image segmentation information led to higher object detection accuracy than either signal alone. Flycatcher may be integrated with assistive communication devices, enabling individuals with severe motor impairments to use eye control to communicate about objects in their environment. The system also represents a promising step toward an eye-driven interface for "copy and paste" visual memory augmentation in wearable computing applications.by Jeffrey M. Bartelma.M.Eng

The Emerging Millennial Majority

This thesis operates under the framework of two theories: the realignment theory and the generational theory. I focus on a model of realignment developed by Arthur Paulson which determines three criteria that are necessary for a political realignment to occur: 1.) a new governing coalition, which is 2.) lasting and durable with 3.) a new policy agenda. A realignment can be driven by various factors, one of which being through generational replacement. Generational change can lead to a realignment when a new generation of voters emerges with unique political views that are likely to remain over time and cause the power to shift from one party to another. By using existing sources of survey data, the purpose of this research is to show that 1.) Millennials are a unique generation with distinct experiences and characteristics; and 2.) that the Millennial generation will thus bring about a realignment that meets Paulson’s criteria of a “new and persistent governing coalition, yielding a new policy agenda.” The results of this study confirm that Millennials are distinctly more Democratic with more progressive policy views as result of generational factors that will persist throughout their lifetime and result in an imminent political realignment

War-time military service can affect partisan preferences

Does war-time military service affect partisan preferences? We argue that military service increases the salience and potential costs of war. Therefore, soldiers who serve during mismanaged wars will associate the ruling party with incompetence and be less likely to support the ruling party in the future. To test our argument, we analyze almost 50 years of Israel National Election Studies. Employing a regression discontinuity design, we show that compared with respondents who were too young to serve in the Yom Kippur war, respondents just old enough to serve report lower support for the Labor party well after the war ended. This effect is likely driven by soldiers’ unwillingness to support a party they associate with security incompetence. We further show that the negative effect of military service does not materialize in well-managed wars, contributing to the literature on the political consequences of war and attitude formation