37 research outputs found
Hydrological analysis as a technical tool to support strategic and economic development : a case study of Lake Naivasha, Kenya
Effective integrated water resources management requires reliable estimation of an overall basin water budget and of hydrologic fluctuations between groundwater and surface-water resources. Seasonal variability of groundwater-surface water exchange fluxes impacts on the water balance. The long term lake water balance was calculated by Modflow using the stage-volume rating curve of Lake Package LAK3. The long term average storage volume change is 8.4 × 108 m3/month. The lake water balances suggests that the lake is not in equilibrium with the inflow and outflow terms. Using field abstraction data analysis and model simulation, the combined volume of lake-groundwater used for industrial abstraction since the last three decades was estimated. This requires an average abstraction amount of 7.0 × 106 m3/month with a long term trend of abstraction ratio 30% (groundwater) and 70% (lake water) since 1980. The amount resulted in a lake which might have been 4.8 m higher than was observed in the last stress period (2010).A long term regional groundwater budget is calculated reflecting all water flow in to and out of the regional aquifer. The model water balance suggests that lake Navaisha basin is in equilibrium with a net outflow about 1% greater than the inflow over the calibrated period of time (1932–2010). The regional model is best used for broad-scale predictions and can be used to provide a general sense of groundwater to surface water and groundwater to groundwater impacts in the basin. A basin wide water resource management strategy can be designed by integrating the lake/wetland within the regional groundwater model to increase the level of sustainable production and good stewardship in Lake Navaisha. Such hydrological analysis is crucial in making the model serve as simulator of the response of lake stage to hydraulic stresses applied to the aquifer and variation in climatic conditio
Interplant Communication of Tomato Plants through Underground Common Mycorrhizal Networks
Plants can defend themselves to pathogen and herbivore attack by responding to chemical signals that are emitted by attacked plants. It is well established that such signals can be transferred through the air. In theory, plants can also communicate with each other through underground common mycorrhizal networks (CMNs) that interconnect roots of multiple plants. However, until now research focused on plant-to-plant carbon nutrient movement and there is no evidence that defense signals can be exchanged through such mycorrhizal hyphal networks. Here, we show that CMNs mediate plant-plant communication between healthy plants and pathogen-infected tomato plants (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.). After establishment of CMNs with the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus Glomus mosseae between tomato plants, inoculation of ‘donor’ plants with the pathogen Alternaria solani led to increases in disease resistance and activities of the putative defensive enzymes, peroxidase, polyphenol oxidase, chitinase, β-1,3-glucanase, phenylalanine ammonia-lyase and lipoxygenase in healthy neighbouring ‘receiver’ plants. The uninfected ‘receiver’ plants also activated six defence-related genes when CMNs connected ‘donor’ plants challenged with A. solani. This finding indicates that CMNs may function as a plant-plant underground communication conduit whereby disease resistance and induced defence signals can be transferred between the healthy and pathogen-infected neighbouring plants, suggesting that plants can ‘eavesdrop’ on defence signals from the pathogen-challenged neighbours through CMNs to activate defences before being attacked themselves
Integração de modelos espaciais e temporais para predições de níveis freáticos extremos
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).
METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate.
FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally.
INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Modelling the Influence of Groundwater Abstractions on the Water Level of Lake Naivasha, Kenya Under Data-Scarce Conditions
Multi-criteria decision approach for evaluation, ranking, and selection of remediation options: case of polluted groundwater, Kuwait
Application of Airborne Geophysics and Geochemistry to Characterize Groundwater Flow Path
Simulation of lake-aquifer interaction at Lake Naivasha, Kenya using a three-dimensional flow model with the high conductivity technique and a DEM with bathymetry
Human impact assessment through a transient numerical modeling on the UNESCO World Heritage Site, Lake Naivasha, Kenya
Lake Naivasha was designated as a RAMSAR site in 1995. The lake environment is fragile and critically threatened by human-induced factors. The study presented a steady and transient numerical modeling. The long-term and system flux over time interaction between the lake and the surficial aquifer is represented in the Lake Package LAK3 with in the advanced 3-D simulation sofware (GMS). The model covers an area of 1817 km2. Model calibration was constrained by the observed groundwater and lake levels using PEST. The effect of excessive abstraction was rigorously analyzed via scenario analysis. The simulation was evaluated “with abstraction” and “without abstraction” scenarios. The abstraction scenario was simulated using range of combination assuming that all the abstraction was from the lake or the groundwater and in the ratio of groundwater and lake water. The effect of the stress was evaluated based on the observed aquifer heads and lake stage at the end of the simulation time. The development of low groundwater-level anomalies in the well field is explained. The result indicates that the one of the well fields is not in direct hydraulic connection to the main recharging water body. Apparently, similar development of cone of depression was not generated in the other two well fields, and this could have several reasons including due to the fact that these well fields are located relatively close by to the main recharging zones and concluded to have additional source of recharge, and this was supported by previous studies, whereby the isotopic composition of the boreholes has their source of recharge from precipitation and river and was also confirmed from the isotopic composition of unsaturated zone, which is a mixture of river and rain. The study reveals that seasonal variability of groundwater–surface water exchange fluxes and its spatially and temporally variable impact substantially on the water resource availability. Such analysis can be used as a basis to quantify the linkages between the surface water and groundwater regime and impacts in the basin. The model output is expected to serve as a basis via linking/coupling with others to incorporate the ecology and biodiversity of the lake to safeguard this high-value world heritage water feature