Domestic Water Demand During Droughts in Temperate Climates: Synthesising Evidence for an Integrated Framework

In the upcoming years, as the population is growing and ageing, as lifestyle changes create the need for more water and as fewer people live in each household, the UK water sector will have to deal with challenges in the provision of adequate water services. Unless critical action is taken, every area in the UK may face a supply-demand gap by the 2080s. Extreme weather events and variations that alter drought and flood frequency add to these pressures. However, little evidence is available about householders’ response to drought and there are few if any studies incorporating this evidence into models of demand forecasting. The present work lays the groundwork for modelling domestic water demand response under drought conditions in temperate climates. After discussing the current literature on estimating and forecasting domestic water consumption under both ‘normal’ and drought conditions, this paper identifies the limited ability of current domestic demand forecasting techniques to include the many different and evolving factors affecting domestic consumption and it stresses the need for the inclusion of inter and intra household factors as well as water use practices in future demand forecasting models

Contextualization and Dependency in State-Based Modelling - Application to Event-B

International audienceContext-awareness is an important feature in system design. We argue that in proof systems and conceptual modelling this notion should be precisely highlighted. Since we focus on conceptual modelling, understandability and clarity are provided precedence for reasoning about proofs done. In this paper, we introduce a new definition for proof context in state-based formalisms with an application in the Event-B modelling language. Furthermore, we introduce a dependency relation between two Event-B models. The contextualization of Event-B models is based on knowledge provided from domains that we classified into constraints, hypotheses and dependencies, according to their truthfulness in proofs. The dependency mechanism between two models makes possible to structure the development of systems models, by organizing phases identified in the analyzed process. These ideas are inspired by works based on the modelling of situations in situation theory that emphasize capabilities of type theory with regard to situation modelling to represent knowledge. Our approach is illustrated on small case studies, and have been validated on a development of design patterns for voting protocols

Stochastic Simulation and Management of an Over-Exploited Aquifer Using an Integrated Modeling System

A modeling system for the stochastic simulation and management of the overexploited groundwater resources of Lake Karla Basin in Central Greece is presented. The uncertainty of the hydrogeological environment which arises from the lack of the hydraulic conductivity data and aquifer's heterogeneity necessitates the stochastic simulation of the underlying aquifer. For the conditional stochastic simulation of hydraulic conductivity, the geostatistical approach was used generating Monte-Carlo realizations. The impact of Lake Karla (or reservoir) restoration and the accompanying projects on the aquifer, is examined through various management scenarios taking into consideration this parameter uncertainty. The target of the restoration plan is to rehabilitate aquifer's water table. This will be achieved through shutting down a great number of irrigation wells, as the irrigation needs of cultivations will be covered by the reservoir. The project with the highest environmental impact on the aquifer is the construction of 50 water supply wells at the lakeside zone of Lake Karla. Nowadays, due to the intense agricultural cultivation, the study area faces a serious water deficit problem, which has led to the over-exploitation of non-renewable groundwater and to a dramatic drawdown of aquifer's water table. The results of the stochastic simulation and management indicates that the operation of the new water supply wells will lead, despite the operation of the new reservoir, to a further drawdown of aquifer's water table, and will increase the effect of parameter uncertainty on hydraulic heads estimation by groundwater model

A modeling system for the evaluation of water resources management strategies in thessaly, greece

A modeling system was developed to evaluate the sustainability of water resources management strategies in the two major basins of Thessaly Region in Greece, namely the Pinios River and the Lake Karla basins. The intense and extensive agriculture of water demanding crops, such as cotton, and the absence of reasonable water resources management have lead to a remarkable water demand increase, which is usually fulfilled by the over-exploitation of groundwater resources. This unsustainable practice has deteriorated the already disturbed water balance and accelerated water resources degradation. The modeling system consists of a hydrological model, a reservoir operation model and methods for the estimation of water demands. The study area was sub-divided into sub-basins and water balance analyses were performed for each sub-basin and each control node of the system for a number of water resources management strategies. Four strategies of hydro-technical project development were coupled with two strategies of groundwater withdrawal and three water demand strategies. In total, more than 24 water management strategies were evaluated. The results showed that, under the existing water resources management, the water deficit of the Pinios River and Lake Karla basins is very large. However, the development of proposed hydro-technical projects in the Pinios River basin coupled with water demand management measures, like improvement of existing water distribution systems, change of irrigation methods, and changes of crop cultivation could alleviate the problem and lead to sustainable and ecological use of water resources in the study area