Numerical Modeling of Dependent Credit Rating Transitions with Asynchronously Moving Industries

Two models of dependent credit rating migrations governed by industry-specific Markovian matrices, are considered. Caused by macroeconomic factors, positive and negative unobserved tendencies, encoded as values "1" or "0" of the corresponding variables, modify the transition probabilities and render the evolutions dependent. They are neither synchronized across industry sectors, nor over credit classes: an upswing in some of them can coexist with a decline of the rest. The models are tested on Standard and Poor's data. MATLAB optimization software and maximum likelihood estimators are used. Obtained distributions of the hidden variables demonstrate that the considered industries migrate asynchronously trough credit classes. Since downgrading probabilities are less affected by the unobserved tendencies, estimated by Monte-Carlo simulations distributions of defaults, exhibit lighter, than for the known coupling models, tails for schemes with asynchronously moving industries. Moreover, the lightest tails were obtained in the case of industry-specific transition matrices

Behavioral Economics and the Public Sector

This thesis consists of four essays dealing with topics that are relevant for the public sector. The essays cover diverse issues of economics partly overlapping with political science. The topics reach from the taxation of labor over monetary policy to preferences over voting institutions. Throughout this thesis it is, in contrast to classical economics, not assumed that humans are necessarily fully rational. Once full rationality is no longer assumed, experiments become an important tool to learn about human behavior. Consequently, most of the work in this thesis makes use of economic experiments

Modeling industrial dynamics with innovative entrants

The paper analyzes some generic features of industrial dynamics whereby innovative change is carried, stochastically, by new entrants. Relying on the formal representation suggested in Winter et al. (1997), it studies both the asymptotic properties of such processes and their finite time dynamics to account for a few empirical stylized facts, including persistent entry and exit, skewed size distributions and turbulence in market shares

A Baseline Model of Industry Evolution

The paper analyses the properties and outcomes of competitive dynamics in industries characterized by heterogeneous firms and continuing stochastic entry. A formal analytical apparatus is developed, able to derive some generic properties of the underlying competition process combining persistent technological heterogeneity, differential growth o

2000), “Modeling industrial dynamics with innovative entrants”, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 11:255–293

review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. –ii– The paper analyzes some generic features of industrial dynamics whereby innovative change is carried, stochastically, by new entrants. Relying on the formal representation suggested in Winter et al. (1997), it studies both the asymptotic properties of such processes and their finite time dynamics to account for a few empirical stylized facts, including persistent entry and exit, skewed size distributions and turbulence in market shares. Key words: evolution, competition, learning, stochastic entry, entrepreneurial startups, expanding set of technological opportunities, industrial dynamics