Lagrangian predictability of high-resolution regional models: the special case of the Gulf of Mexico

The Lagrangian prediction skill (model ability to reproduce Lagrangian drifter trajectories) of the nowcast/forecast system developed for the Gulf of Mexico at the University of Colorado at Boulder is examined through comparison with real drifter observations. Model prediction error (MPE), singular values (SVs) and irreversible-skill time (IT) are used as quantitative measures of the examination. Divergent (poloidal) and nondivergent (toroidal) components of the circulation attractor at 50m depth are analyzed and compared with the Lagrangian drifter buoy data using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and the measures, respectively. Irregular (probably, chaotic) dynamics of the circulation attractor reproduced by the nowcast/forecast system is analyzed through Lyapunov dimension, global entropies, toroidal and poloidal kinetic energies. The results allow assuming exponential growth of prediction error on the attractor. On the other hand, the <it>q</it>-th moment of MPE grows by the power law with exponent of 3<it>q</it>/4. The probability density function (PDF) of MPE has a symmetrical but non-Gaussian shape for both the short and long prediction times and for spatial scales ranging from 20km to 300km. The phenomenological model of MPE based on a diffusion-like equation is developed. The PDF of IT is non-symmetric with a long tail stretched towards large ITs. The power decay of the tail was faster than 2 for long prediction times

Corrosion-fatigue failure of tractor trailers metal materials in aggressive environments

The processes of corrosion-fatigue failure of materials in contact with mineral fertilizers are insufficiently studied. As a result of joint influence of atmospheric corrosion and mechanical loads, about 70 to 80 % of machine parts get out of order, 20 to 25 % of which are failures caused by operating overload due to the strength loss because of atmospheric corrosion. A large part of metal structures of agricultural vehicles used to transport mineral fertilizers is under the direct influence of aggressive environments and dynamic loads that occur during the motion by field roads. Saturated solutions of the most aggressive working environments used in agricultural production, in particular ammonium sulphate and nitrophosphate are investigated to reduce fatigue resistance of ordinary steels groups – St3 and St5 and quality steels – 10 Steel, 15 Steel, 20 Steel, 25 Steel when loaded at all levels. The fatigue endurance limit decreases in comparison with air up to 2.02 times in a solution of ammonium sulphate, and to 2.32 times in a solution of nitrophosphate. In organic fertilizer environments, compared to distilled water, the conditional fatigue endurance limit increased to 9 %. The properties of the given materials as an inhibitor of corrosion-fatigue failure were discovered and proved