Application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model to simulate current and future water demand in the Blue Nile

The riparian countries of the Nile have agreed to collaborate in the development of its water resources for sustainable socioeconomic growth. Currently there is significant potential for expansion of hydropower and irrigation in the Blue Nile River in both Ethiopia and Sudan. However, the likely consequences of upstream development on downstream flows have not been fully assessed and the water resource implications of development in both countries are unclear. Against this background, the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was used to provide an assessment of both the current situation and a future (2015) scenario. The future scenario incorporated new irrigation and hydropower schemes on the main stem of the Nile and its principal tributaries. Data for all existing and planned schemes were obtained from the basin master plans as well as from scheme feasibility studies. Water use was simulated over a 32-year period of varying rainfall and flow. Preliminary results indicate that currently irrigation demand in Sudan is approximately 8.5 Bm3y-1 for 1.16 million hectares (mha). This compares to a total irrigation demand in Ethiopia of just 0.2 Bm3y-1. By 2015, with many existing schemes being extended in Sudan and new schemes being developed in both countries, irrigation demand is estimated to increase to 13.4 Bm3y-1 for 2.13 mha in Sudan and 1.1 Bm3y-1 for 210 thousand hectares (tha) in Ethiopia. The flow of the Blue Nile is estimated to decline from an average of 46.9 Bm3y-1 to 44.8 Bm3y-1 at the Ethiopia-Sudan border and from a current average of 43.2 Bm3y-1 to 36.2 Bm3y-1 at Khartoum (including evaporation from all reservoirs). Although total flows are reduced, greater regulation results in higher dry season flows at both locations.Length: pp.78-88River basin developmentSimulation modelsPlanningEvaluationWater demandReservoirsDams

Mortality and Disability-adjusted Life-years (DALYs) for common neglected tropical Diseases in Ethiopia, 1990 to 2015: evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Introduction: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are important public health problems in Ethiopia. In 2013, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) has launched a national NTD master plan to eliminate major NTDs of public health importance by 2020. Benchmarking the current status of NTDs in the country is important to monitor and evaluate the progress in the implementation of interventions and their impacts. Therefore, this study aims to assess the trends of mortality and Disability-adjusted Life-Years (DALY) for the priority NTDs over the last 25 years. Methods: We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 estimates for this study. The GBD 2015 data source for cause of death and DALY estimation included verbal autopsy (VA), Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), malaria indicator surveys (MICS) and other disease specific surveys, Ministry of Health reports submitted to United Nations (UN) agencies and published scientific articles. Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm) and/or natural history models were used to estimate malaria and NTDs mortality rates. DALY were estimated as the sum of Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature mortality and Years Lived with Disability (YLD). Results: All NTDs caused an estimated of 6,293 deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3699 – 10,080) in 1990 and 3,593 deaths (95% UI: 2051 – 6178) in 2015, a 70% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardised mortality rates due to schistosomiasis, STH and leshmaniasis have declined by 91.3%, 73.5% and 21.6% respectively between 1990 to 2015. The number of DALYs due to all NTDs has declined from 814.4 thousand (95% UI: 548 thousand–1.2 million) in 1990 to 579.5 thousand (95%UI: 309.4 thousand – 1.3 million) in 2015. Age-standardised DALY rates due to all NTDs declined by 30.4%, from 17.6 per 1000(95%UI: 12.5-26.5) in 1990 to 12.2 per 1000(95%UI: 6.5 – 27.4) in 2015. Age-standardised DALY rate for trachoma declined from 92.7 per 100,000(95% UI: 63.2 – 128.4) in 1990 to 41.2 per 100,000(95%UI: 27.4 – 59.2) in 2015, a 55.6% reduction between 1990 and 2015. Age-standardised DALY rates for onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis and lymphiatic filariasis decreased by 66.2%, 29.4% and 12.5% respectively between 1990 and 2015. DALY rate for ascariasis fell by 56.8% over the past 25 years. Conclusions: Ethiopia has made a remarkable progress in reducing the DALY rates for most of the NTDs over the last 25 years. The rapid scale of interventions and broader system strengthening may have a lasting impact on achieving the 2020 goal of elimination of most of NTDs. Ethiopia should strengthen the coverage of integrated interventions of NTD through proper coordination with other health programs and sectors and community participation to eliminate NTDs by 2020

Intimate partner violence against women in western Ethiopia: prevalence, patterns, and associated factors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Intimate partner violence against women is the psychological, physical, and sexual abuse directed to spouses. Globally it is the most pervasive yet underestimated human rights violation. This study was aimed at investigating the prevalence, patterns and associated factors of intimate partner violence against women in Western Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional, population based household survey was conducted from January to April, 2011 using standard WHO multi-country study questionnaire. A sample of 1540 ever married/cohabited women aged 15-49 years was randomly selected from urban and rural settings of East Wollega Zone, Western Ethiopia. Data were principally analyzed using logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Lifetime and past 12 months prevalence of intimate partner violence against women showed 76.5% (95% CI: 74.4-78.6%) and 72.5% (95% CI: 70.3-74.7%), respectively. The overlap of psychological, physical, and sexual violence was 56.9%. The patterns of the three forms of violence are similar across the time periods. Rural residents (AOR 0.58, 95% CI 0.34-0.98), literates (AOR 0.65, 95% CI 0.48-0.88), female headed households <b>(</b>AOR 0.46, 95% CI 0.27-0.76) were at decreased likelihood to have lifetime intimate partner violence. Yet, older women were nearly four times (AOR 3.36, 95% CI 1.27-8.89) more likely to report the incident. On the other hand, abduction (AOR 3.71, 95% CI 1.01-13.63), polygamy (AOR 3.79, 95% CI 1.64-0.73), spousal alcoholic consumption (AOR 1.98, 95% CI 1.21-3.22), spousal hostility (AOR 3.96, 95% CI 2.52-6.20), and previous witnesses of parental violence (AOR 2.00, 95% CI 1.54-2.56) were factors associated with an increased likelihood of lifetime intimate partner violence against women.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In their lifetime, three out of four women experienced at least one incident of intimate partner violence. This needs an urgent attention at all levels of societal hierarchy including policymakers, stakeholders and professionals to alleviate the situation.</p