Processing Trade, Exchange Rates, and the People’s Republic of China’s Bilateral Trade Balances

This paper analyzes the role of processing trade in the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s bilateral trade balances and the impact of the yuan’s appreciation on processing trade. The analysis is based on panel data covering the PRC’s 51 trading partners from 1993–2008. The empirical analysis shows that: (1) processing trade accounts for 100% of the PRC’s overall trade surplus and can explain most of its bilateral trade balances; (2) the PRC’s processing trade shows a significant regional bias—its processing exports to East Asian economies are three times those to other regions while its processing imports from East Asian economies are eleven times those from other regions; (3) the PRC is one of the major sources of its own processing imports, accounting for 16.8% of its total processing imports from all 51 trading partners; and (4) the appreciation of the yuan would affect both processing imports and exports in the same direction—specifically, a 10% real appreciation of the yuan would reduce not only the PRC’s processing exports by 9.6% but also its processing imports by 3.9%. Therefore, a moderate appreciation of the yuan would have a very limited impact on the PRC’s trade balance.processing trade; east asia trade; bilateral trade balances; prc processing trade; yuan appreciation

China?s Exports in ICT and its Impact on Asian Countries

This paper analyses China?s ICT exports growth in its two major markets Japan and the US from 1992 to 2004. It focuses on ICT products classified in SITC 75, 76 and 77. The empirical results show that Chinese exports had maintained two-digit annual growth during the period. The growth was much higher than the corresponding growth of the overall markets. By 2004, Chinese ICT exports accounted for 26 per cent of the total Japanese imports and 19 per cent of the total imports of the US in ICT products. In addition, the paper investigates whether the rapid growth of Chinese ICT exports crowded out that of other Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. The empirical analysis shows that the crowding out effect differs across countries and products. The exports of Singapore and Philippines have been negatively affected by the growth of Chinese exports, but no crowding effect existed at all with Indonesia?s exports.China, exports, ICT, Asia

Exchange rate policy and the relative distribution of FDI among host countries

This paper examines the FDI-exchange rate nexus in the context of one FDI source and two host countries. It focuses on the effect of exchange rates on relative FDI inflows between the two host countries. The theoretical analysis shows explicitly that relative FDI inflows are a function of relative real exchange rates. In particular, if one host country devalues its currency against that of the source country more than the other does, FDI into the former country will be expected to increase relative to the other country. The theoretical inference is examined with Japanese FDI in manufacturing industries of China and ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand). The empirical results generally support the theoretical conclusion, suggesting that the real devaluation of the Chinese Yuan undercut FDI into the ASEAN-4.FDI; exchange rate; China; ASEAN-4

Foreign direct investment and China's bilateral intra-industry trade with Japan and the US

This paper analyzes dynamic changes of China's intra-industry trade with its major trading partners, Japan and the US, from 1980 to 2004. It also investigates to what extent foreign direct investment promoted intra-industry trade. The empirical results show that, while shares of China's intra-industry trade with both Japan and U.S rose substantially, its intra-industry trade with Japan has reached 35 per cent of the overall trade, considerably larger than 10 per cent with the US. Sino-Japan intra-industry trade concentrated in the electrical and machinery sectors accounted for 52 per cent and 46 per cent of overall trade respectively. On the other hand, it is in the chemical and food sectors where intra-industry trade represented a relatively large proportion of Sino-US trade, 50 per cent and 30 per cent accordingly in each sector. In addition, the analysis indicates that Japanese direct investment in China performed a significant role in enhancing intra-industry trade between Japan and China. However, it found no evidence that the US direct investment in China contributed to the growth of the bilateral intra-industry trade between the two countries.intra-industry trade; FDI; China

Exchange Rates and Competition for FDI

FDI, exchange rate, China, ASEAN-4

How the iPhone Widens the United States Trade Deficit with the People's Republic of China

In this paper, the authors use the iPhone as a case to show that even high-tech products invented by United States (US) companies will not increase US exports, but on the contrary exacerbate the US trade deficit. The iPhone contributed US$1.8 billion to the US trade deficit with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Unprecedented globalization, well organized global production networks, repaid development of cross-country production fragmentation, and low transportation costs all contributed to rational firms such as Apple making business decisions that contributed directly to the US trade deficit reduction. Global production networks and highly specialized production processes apparently reverse trade patterns: developing countries such as the PRC export high-tech goods—like the iPhone—while industrialized countries such as the US import the high-tech goods they themselves invented. In addition, conventional trade statistics greatly inflate bilateral trade deficits between a country used as export-platform by multinational firms and its destination countries.sino-us trade; apple iphone; world trade patterns

Environment and Trade: A Review of Theory and Issues

This paper illustrates the major issues influencing interaction between environmental regulation and international trade by reviewing the empirical studies and theoretical results of the last 20 years. The second section of the paper discusses how environmental regulation distorts comparative advantage and specialization. The third part covers the impact of environmental regulation on the location of polluting industries. The fourth part covers transnational pollution and trade in wastes. The fifth section discusses major conflicts between trade policy and environmental policy. The final part addresses strategic environmental policy and international trade

How Important is Exports and FDI for China\u27s Economic Growth?

経済学 / EconomicsThe Global Financial Crisis and the recent slowdown of China\u27s growth have led to questions about the sustainability of China\u27s growth. The argument is that, China is too dependent on external demand and that it needs to "rebalance" its economy toward domestic consumption. However, conventional measures of external: net exports-over-GDP and exports-over-GDP are biased and do not accurately measure the contribution of external demand to GDP growth. In this paper, we propose two measures that are simple modifications of the conventional measures. We argue that our proposed measures provide a more accurate estimate of the vulnerability of China\u27s economy to external shocks, in the form of exports and FDI. Our estimates show that in 2001, exports and FDI accounted for 18.2% of GDP growth and by 2004 the share rose to 49 percent. During 2005-2007, the contribution of exports and FDI to growth remained in the range of 38-40 percent. Our estimates also show that the impressive recovery of the Chinese economy in the post-crisis period owed at least 53% of its growth to exports and FDI. Based on these results, we conclude that the Chinese economy remains highly dependent on external demand in the form of exports and FDI, and re-balancing the economy towards domestic demand has not been achieved yet.JEL Classification Codes: F43, E01http://www.grips.ac.jp/list/jp/facultyinfo/xing_yuqing