A Cross-Domain Approach to Analyzing the Short-Run Impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. Electricity Sector

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has rapidly spread around the globe in 2020, with the U.S. becoming the epicenter of COVID-19 cases since late March. As the U.S. begins to gradually resume economic activity, it is imperative for policymakers and power system operators to take a scientific approach to understanding and predicting the impact on the electricity sector. Here, we release a first-of-its-kind cross-domain open-access data hub, integrating data from across all existing U.S. wholesale electricity markets with COVID-19 case, weather, cellular location, and satellite imaging data. Leveraging cross-domain insights from public health and mobility data, we uncover a significant reduction in electricity consumption across that is strongly correlated with the rise in the number of COVID-19 cases, degree of social distancing, and level of commercial activity.Comment: This paper has been accepted for publication by Joule. The manuscript can also be accessed from EnerarXiv: http://www.enerarxiv.org/page/thesis.html?id=198

Month ahead average daily electricity price profile forecasting based on a hybrid nonlinear regression and SVM model: an ERCOT case study

Abstract With the deregulation of the electric power industry, electricity price forecasting plays an increasingly important role in electricity markets, especially for retailors and investment decision making. Month ahead average daily electricity price profile forecasting is proposed for the first time in this paper. A hybrid nonlinear regression and support vector machine (SVM) model is proposed. Off-peak hours, peak hours in peak months and peak hours in off-peak months are distinguished and different methods are designed to improve the forecast accuracy. A nonlinear regression model with deviation compensation is proposed to forecast the prices of off-peak hours and peak hours in off-peak months. SVM is adopted to forecast the prices of peak hours in peak months. Case studies based on data from ERCOT validate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid method

Estimated projection of incidence and mortality of alcohol-related liver disease in China from 2022 to 2040: a modeling study

Abstract Background China has one of the highest numbers of liver disease cases in the world, including 6.4 million cirrhosis associated with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) cases. However, there is still a lack of urgent awareness about the growth of alcohol consumption and the increased burden of ALD in China. Therefore, we aimed to project the potential impact of changes in alcohol consumption on the burden of ALD in China up to 2040 under different scenarios. Methods We developed a Markov model to simulate the natural history of ALD until 2040 in China. We estimated the incidence and mortality of alcohol-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma between 2022 and 2040 under four projected scenarios: status quo scenario and scenarios with a 2%, 4%, and 8% annual decrease in excessive alcohol consumption, respectively. Results Under the status quo scenario, the cumulative new cases of cirrhosis from 2022 to 2040 was projected to be 3.61 million (95% UI 3.03–4.44 million), resulting in a cumulative 1.96 million (1.66–2.32 million) deaths from alcohol-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. However, a 2% annual reduction in excessive alcohol consumption was expected to avert 0.3 million deaths associated with ALD, and a 4% annual reduction was projected to prevent about 1.36 million new cases of cirrhosis and prevent 0.5 million ALD-related deaths. Moreover, an 8% annual reduction would prevent about 2 million new cases of cirrhosis and 0.82 million deaths. Conclusions Without any substantial change in alcohol attitudes and policies to regulate excessive drinking, the disease burden of ALD in China will increase enormously. Strengthening the implementation of alcohol restriction interventions is critical and urgent to reduce the impact of ALD on the Chinese population

Mapping Quantitative Trait Loci Using Naturally Occurring Genetic Variance Among Commercial Inbred Lines of Maize (Zea mays L.)

Many commercial inbred lines are available in crops. A large amount of genetic variation is preserved among these lines. The genealogical history of the inbred lines is usually well documented. However, quantitative trait loci (QTL) responsible for the genetic variances among the lines are largely unexplored due to lack of statistical methods. In this study, we show that the pedigree information of the lines along with the trait values and marker information can be used to map QTL without the need of further crossing experiments. We develop a Monte Carlo method to estimate locus-specific identity-by-descent (IBD) matrices. These IBD matrices are further incorporated into a mixed-model equation for variance component analysis. QTL variance is estimated and tested at every putative position of the genome. The actual QTL are detected by scanning the entire genome. Applying this new method to a well-documented pedigree of maize (Zea mays L.) that consists of 404 inbred lines, we mapped eight QTL for the maize male flowering trait, growing degree day heat units to pollen shedding (GDUSHD). These detected QTL contributed >80% of the variance observed among the inbred lines. The QTL were then used to evaluate all the inbred lines using the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) technique. Superior lines were selected according to the estimated QTL allelic values, a technique called marker-assisted selection (MAS). The MAS procedure implemented via BLUP may be routinely used by breeders to select superior lines and line combinations for development of new cultivars

Nutritional homeostasis in carnivorous southern catfish (Silurus meridionalis): is there a mechanism for increased energy expenditure during carbohydrate overfeeding?

In previous growth experiments with carnivorous southern catfish (Silurus meridionalis), the non-fecal energy lose was positively related to dietary. carbohydrate level. To test whether metabolic energy expenditure accounts for such energy loss, an experiment was performed with southern catfish juveniles (33.2-71.9 g) to study the effect of dietary carbohydrate level on fasting metabolic rate and specific dynamic action (SDA) at 27.5 degreesC. The fasting metabolic rate in this catfish was increased with dietary carbohydrate level, and the specific dynamic action (SDA) coefficient (energy expended on SDA as percent of assimilated energy) was not affected by dietary carbohydrate level. The results suggest that in southern catfish, carbohydrate overfeeding increases metabolic rate to oxidize unwanted assimilated carbohydrate. A discussion on the poor capacity of intermediate metabolism for adapting dietary carbohydrate in carnivorous fish and its possible relationship with facultative component of SDA was also documented in this paper. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Anti-herpes simplex virus activities of bioactive extracts from Antrodia camphorata mycelia

Background: Antrodia camphorata, a traditional Chinese medicine, is widely used in the treatment of liver diseases and cancers. Anti-inflammatory properties have also been described. HSV infection represents one of the most serious public health concerns globally because of its devastating impact. Searching for new antiviral agents, especially those with different mechanisms of action, is a crucial goal and there is an unmet need for alternative and complementary therapy against HSV infection. In this study, anti-herpes screening was performed with extracts from A. camphorata mycelia. Methods: MTT assay, fractional inhibitory concentration index and median-effect principle were used to evaluate antiviral activity and to calculate drug combination effect. Results: Crude ethanol extracts and isolated constituents showed inhibition of HSV replication at a very low concentration. Fraction A and antrodin A showed viral inhibitory effect with reduction of viral cell-to-cell spread. In addition, neither fraction A nor antrodin A showed interaction in combination with acyclovir. Conclusions: A. camphorata mycelia and antrodin A might have potential use as anti-HSV agents and are promising candidates for future antiviral drug design

A Cross-Domain Approach to Analyzing the Short-Run Impact of COVID-19 on the US Electricity Sector

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has rapidly spread around the globe in 2020, with the US becoming the epicenter of COVID-19 cases since late March. As the US begins to gradually resume economic activity, it is imperative for policymakers and power system operators to take a scientific approach to understanding and predicting the impact on the electricity sector. Here, we release a first-of-its-kind cross-domain open-access data hub, integrating data from across all existing US wholesale electricity markets with COVID-19 case, weather, mobile device location, and satellite imaging data. Leveraging cross-domain insights from public health and mobility data, we rigorously uncover a significant reduction in electricity consumption that is strongly correlated with the number of COVID-19 cases, degree of social distancing, and level of commercial activity