Evaluation Study of Linear Combination Technique for SVM related Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting and SVM are widely used in many domains, for example, smart city and digital services. Focusing on SVM related time series forecasting model, in this paper we empirical investigate the performance of eight linear combination techniques by using M3 competition dataset which includes 3003 time series. The results reveals that the “forecast combination puzzle” is not exist for combining SVM related forecasting model as the simple average is almost the worst combination technique

A Critical Escape Probability Formulation for Enhancing the Transient Stability of Power Systems with System Parameter Design

For the enhancement of the transient stability of power systems, the key is to define a quantitative optimization formulation with system parameters as decision variables. In this paper, we model the disturbances by Gaussian noise and define a metric named Critical Escape Probability (CREP) based on the invariant probability measure of a linearised stochastic processes. CREP characterizes the probability of the state escaping from a critical set. CREP involves all the system parameters and reflects the size of the basin of attraction of the nonlinear systems. An optimization framework that minimizes CREP with the system parameters as decision variablesis is presented. Simulations show that the mean first hitting time when the state hits the boundary of the critical set, that is often used to describe the stability of nonlinear systems, is dramatically increased by minimizing CREP. This indicates that the transient stability of the system is effectively enhanced. It also shown that suppressing the state fluctuations only is insufficient for enhancing the transient stability. In addition, the famous Braess' paradox which also exists in power systems is revisited. Surprisingly, it turned out that the paradoxes identified by the traditional metric may not exist according to CREP. This new metric opens a new avenue for the transient stability analysis of future power systems integrated with large amounts of renewable energy.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

Multiplicity of Solutions for Nonlocal Elliptic System of p, q -Kirchhoff Type

This paper is concerned with the following nonlocal elliptic system of p,q -Kirchhoff type Under bounded condition on M and some novel and periodic condition on F, some new results of the existence of two solutions and three solutions of the above mentioned nonlocal elliptic system are obtained by means of Bonanno's multiple critical points theorems without the PalaisSmale condition and Ricceri's three critical points theorem, respectively

Falls in community‐dwelling prefrail older adults

Frailty has been established as a risk factor for falls, and prefrailty also seems a risk; however, few studies have focused on the association between falls and each of the five components of frailty proposed by Fried. In the present study, we sought to elucidate the association between prefrailty and falls, and moreover, the association of frailty component with falls. Participants were community‐dwelling older people who had cognitive complaints but not dementia (N = 447, male 54.6%). Prefrailty was defined as exhibiting one or two of the five Fried criteria. Frail individuals were excluded. Background characteristics were compared between the prefrail and robust groups, and multiple regression analysis was performed to investigate the associations between fall history within the past year and factors that were significantly different between the groups. We also performed logistic regression analysis with adjustment for age, education and gender to assess associations with frailty components. We found that prefrailty was associated with fall history. Depressed mood was also significantly associated with fall history. Among the five frailty criteria, exhaustion was significantly associated with falls. Prefrailty, especially the criteria of exhaustion, and depressed mood were associated with fall history.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/153214/1/hsc12845_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/153214/2/hsc12845.pd

[P2–575]: Apoe Epsilon 4 Status Modifies The Effects Of Aerobic, Resistance, Or Combined Training On Cognitive Function In Older Adults

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/152588/1/alzjjalz2017061234.pd

Periodontal Disease and Breast Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of 1,73,162 Participants

Objective: To investigate the correlation between periodontal disease and breast cancer.Materials and Methods: PubMed and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases were searched up to February 8, 2018 for observational studies examining the association between periodontal disease and breast cancer. Study selection was conducted according to predesigned eligibility criteria, and two authors independently extracted data from included studies. Meta-analysis was performed using the Comprehensive Meta-Analysis v2 software and risk estimates were calculated as relative risks (RRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs).Results: A total of 11 study were included. Meta-analysis indicated that periodontal disease significantly increased the risk of breast cancer by 1.22-fold (RR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.06–1.40). Amongst participants with periodontal patients and a history of periodontal therapy, the risk of developing breast cancer was not significant (RR = 1.23; 95% CI = 0.95–1.60). The association results between periodontal diseases and breast cancer were found to be robust, as evident in the leave-one-out sensitivity analysis.Conclusions: Periodontal disease may be a potential risk factor for the development of breast cancer among women, and thus effective periodontal therapy may present as a valuable preventive measure against breast cancer

P3‐005: Effects of Aerobic, Resistance, or Combined Training on Cognitive Function in Older Adults: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/152606/1/alzjjalz2016061662.pd