Evaluation of financial liberalization : a general equilibrium model with constrained occupation choice

The objective of this paper is to assess both the aggregate growth effects and the distributional consequences of financial liberalization as observed in Thailand from 1976 to 1996. A general equilibrium occupational choice model with two sectors, one without intermediation, and the other with borrowing and lending, is taken to Thai data. Key parameters of the production technology and the distribution of entrepreneurial talent are estimated by maximizing the likelihood of transition into business given initial wealth as observed in two distinct datasets. Other parameters of the model are calibrated to try to match the two decades of growth as well as observed changes in inequality, labor share, savings, and the number of entrepreneurs. Without an expansion in the size of the intermediated sector, Thailand would have evolved very differently, namely, with a drastically lower growth rate, high residual subsistence sector, non-increasing wages, but lower inequality. The financial liberalization brings welfare gains and losses to different subsets of the population. Primary winners are talented would-be entrepreneurs who lack credit and cannot otherwise go into business (or invest little capital). Mean gains for these winners range from 17 to 34 percent of observed overall average household income. But liberalization also induces greater demand by entrepreneurs for workers resulting in increases in the wage and lower profits of relatively rich entrepreneurs of the same order of magnitude as the observed overall average income of firm owners. Foreign capital has no significant impact on growth or the distribution of observed income.Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Conditions and Volatility,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism

Recent evidence that TADs and chromatin loops are dynamic structures.

Mammalian genomes are folded into spatial domains, which regulate gene expression by modulating enhancer-promoter contacts. Here, we review recent studies on the structure and function of Topologically Associating Domains (TADs) and chromatin loops. We discuss how loop extrusion models can explain TAD formation and evidence that TADs are formed by the ring-shaped protein complex, cohesin, and that TAD boundaries are established by the DNA-binding protein, CTCF. We discuss our recent genomic, biochemical and single-molecule imaging studies on CTCF and cohesin, which suggest that TADs and chromatin loops are dynamic structures. We highlight complementary polymer simulation studies and Hi-C studies employing acute depletion of CTCF and cohesin, which also support such a dynamic model. We discuss the limitations of each approach and conclude that in aggregate the available evidence argues against stable loops and supports a model where TADs are dynamic structures that continually form and break throughout the cell cycle

World Real Interest Rates

We think of the expected real interest rate for ten OECD countries (our counterpart of the world economy) as determined by the equation of aggregate investment demand to aggregate desired saving. Stock-market returns isolate shifts to investment demand, and changes in oil prices, monetary growth, and fiscal variables isolate shifts to desired saving. We estimated the reduced form for CDP-weighted world averages of the expected short-term real interest rate and the investment ratio over the period 1959-88. The estimates reveal significant effects in the predicted direction for world stock returns, oil prices, and world monetary growth, but fiscal variables turned out to be unimportant. Structural estimation implies that an increase by one percentage point in the expected real interest rate raises the desired saving rate by onethird of a percentage point. Simulations of the model indicated that fluctuations in world stock returns and oil prices explain a good deal of the time series for the world average of expected real interest rates; specifically, why the rates were low in 1974-79 and high in 1981-86. The model also explains the fall in real rates in 1987-88 and the subsequent upturn in 1989. The fitted relation forecasts an increase in the world average of real interest rates in 1990 to a value, 5.6 %, that is nearly a full percentage point above the highest value attained in the entire prior sample, 1958-89. We estimated systems of equations for individual countries' expected real interest rates and investment ratios. One finding is that each country's expected real interest rate depends primarily on world factors, rather than own-country factors, thereby suggesting a good deal of integration of world capital and goods markets.

Network connections and innovation capacity in traditional agrifood chains

In the New Economy, the network is considered as more important than the firm itself. In this paper the focus is on chain networks which include vertical networks among chain members, horizontal networks with peers, and networking with third parties. Networks have an important role in the diffusion and adoption of innovations, thus they are the locus of innovation. While previous research focused on the firm, we contribute to the understanding of innovations in chain networks, i.e. we investigate the innovation capacity in vertical networks and how networking with peers and third parties is influencing the innovation capacity of the vertical network. We propose that there is a positive relationship between the network connections the direct chain partners have with peers and third parties and the innovation capacity of the vertical network. Data were collected from 90 direct agrifood chains in the traditional food sector. Cluster analysis suggested three clusters of chains corresponding to three distinct levels of innovation capacity: low, medium and high. Via descriptive analysis and binary logistic regression the influence of networking with peers and third parties on the innovation capacity of the vertical network was investigated. Our results confirm our proposition. However, we found that the chain partners are either horizontally or vertically networking for innovation. Nevertheless, more networking within the chain and with peers and third parties is linked to higher levels of innovation capacity. Consequently, our study adds to the research in the field of the New Economy by deepening the understanding of how innovation capacity is developed in vertical networks. We can confirm that the network is very important for the development and implementation of innovations and that the innovation capacity of one firm is linked to the innovation capacity of its chain partners. For future research we propose to investigate the link between networking for innovation and types of innovation which can be achieved. Further, future research should explore further inter-organizational links in the chain network and explore wider networks than the direct chain.SMEs, chain networks, traditional food products, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Labor and Human Capital,

Quality Improvements in Models of Growth

Technological progress takes the form of improvements in quality of an array of intermediate inputs to production. In an equilibrium that is standard in the literature, all research is carried out by outsiders, and success means that the outsider replaces the incumbent as the industry leader. The equilibrium research intensity involves three considerations: leading-edge goods are priced above the competitive level, innovators value the extraction of monopoly rents from predecessors, and innovators regard their successes as temporary. We show that, if industry leaders have lower costs of research, then the leaders will do all the research in equilibrium. However, if the cost advantage is not too large, then the equilibrium research intensity and growth rate depend on the existence of the competitive fringe and take on the same values as in the standard solution. We discuss the departures from Pareto optimality and analyze the determination of the economy's rate of return and growth rate.