Iain Duncan Smith’s resignation was the most confusing since Gladstone left the (Conservative) government of 1845

Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative Party leader, recently resigned as Secretary of State for Work and Pensions. His decision was controversial, with many suggesting that it had more to do with the European Union than it does with his stated reason of cuts to Personal Independence Payments. Here, Alun Wyburn-Powell takes a look at the perplexing resignation of an often perplexing man

How will the coalition end? Cameron and Clegg may look to the precedent set by the 1945 caretaker government

Alun Wyburn-Powell provides a historical account of the 1945 caretaker government and argues that it provides a useful model for thinking about when the current coalition might end. Whilst obviously very different situations, there is good logic in parting some months prior to the start of the 2015 campaign for both the LibDems and Tories. It would allow a bit more freedom for the parties to maneuver and might neutralize Labour’s attempt to attack the coalition

Jeremy Corbyn could change British politics and out-perform expectations – provided the Conservatives split over Europe

In Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party could be about to elect its most left-wing leader in a generation. But would it be a disaster as the mainstream press are arguing? Alun Wyburn-Powell argues that he could well out-perform expectations provided the Conservatives, as many suspect, split over Europe

“Safe seats” are only really safe as long as rival political parties neglect to target them

Are so called “safe seats” safe because of the devotion of their electors to a particular political party, or because the other parties simply don’t bother wasting their resources on ‘unwinnable’ contests? Alun Wyburn-Powell points to several examples, both historical and recent, which suggest that an intimidatingly large majority may be more fragile than it looks, provided that efforts are made to contest the seat

Predicting the 2020 election? We are not even sure if the results of 2015 are going to change.

Last Thursday, the UK went to the polls. While different parts of the country voted in different elections for posts of varying significance, political observers could draw conclusions from a wide and varied set of results. Here, Alun Wyburn-Powell gives his take on proceedings, and on the news that the Conservatives may be forced to re-win seats that they won at the 2015 General Election

The EU referendum saw the return of class-prediction voting (with a vengeance)

The repercussions of the UK’s decision to abandon its membership of the European Union keep coming, with Boris Johnson seemingly heading for Downing Street. Here, Alun Wyburn-Powell picks over the result, focusing on democratic engagement, polling miscalculations, and the return of class-prediction voting

Can Labour recover to win in 2020? History says one thing, and the polls another

The 2015 General Election saw the Conservatives win a majority, seemingly against all odds, with Labour expected to perform much more strongly. Alun Wyburn-Powell looks at the historical precedent for Labour to recover and take the next election in 2020, arguing that while the polling suggests an insurmountable challenge, history suggests that it is possible

David Cameron faces similar internal divisions as did Harold Wilson over Europe

David Cameron’s indecisiveness on collective cabinet responsibility and the EU Referendum campaign has been widely commented upon. Alun Wyburn-Powell argues that the situation mirrors challenges that the Labour Wilson government faced in 1975 and that it also serves to underline that Conservative Party divisions are a central reason for why the referendum is happening in the first place