Statistical design considerations for pilot studies transitioning therapies from the bench to the bedside

Pilot studies are often used to transition therapies developed using animal models to a clinical setting. Frequently, the focus of such trials is on estimating the safety in terms of the occurrence of certain adverse events. With relatively small sample sizes, the probability of observing even relatively common events is low; however, inference on the true underlying event rate is still necessary even when no events of interest are observed. The exact upper limit to the event rate is derived and illustrated graphically. In addition, the simple algebraic expression for the confidence bound is seen to be useful in the context of planning studies

Randomization in substance abuse clinical trials

BACKGROUND: A well designed randomized clinical trial rates as the highest level of evidence for a particular intervention's efficacy. Randomization, a fundamental feature of clinical trials design, is a process invoking the use of probability to assign treatment interventions to patients. In general, randomization techniques pursue the goal of providing objectivity to the assignment of treatments, while at the same time balancing for treatment assignment totals and covariate distributions. Numerous randomization techniques, each with varying properties of randomness and balance, are suggested in the statistical literature. This paper reviews common randomization techniques often used in substance abuse research and an application from a National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA)-funded clinical trial in substance abuse is used to illustrate several choices an investigator faces when designing a clinical trial. RESULTS: Comparisons and contrasts of randomization schemes are provided with respect to deterministic and balancing properties. Specifically, Monte Carlo simulation is used to explore the balancing nature of randomization techniques for moderately sized clinical trials. Results demonstrate large treatment imbalance for complete randomization with less imbalance for the urn or adaptive scheme. The urn and adaptive randomization methods display smaller treatment imbalance as demonstrated by the low variability of treatment allocation imbalance. For all randomization schemes, covariate imbalance between treatment arms was small with little variation between adaptive schemes, stratified schemes and unstratified schemes given that sample sizes were moderate to large. CONCLUSION: We develop this paper with the goal of reminding substance abuse researchers of the broad array of randomization options available for clinical trial designs. There may be too quick a tendency for substance abuse researchers to implement the fashionable urn randomization schemes and other highly adaptive designs. In many instances, simple or blocked randomization with stratification on a major covariate or two will accomplish the same objectives as an urn or adaptive design, and it can do so with more simply implemented schedules and without the dangers of overmatching. Furthermore, the proper analysis, fully accounting for the stratified design, can be conducted

Microbiological Factors Influencing the Outcome of Nosocomial Bloodstream Infections: A 6-Year Validated, Population-Based Model

All patients (n = 1,745) with nosocomial bloodstream infection identified between 1986 and 1991 at a single 900-bed tertiary care hospital were studied to identify microbiological factors independently associated with mortality due to the infection. Patients were identified by prospective, case-based surveillance and positive blood cultures. Mortality rates were examined for secular trends. Prognostic factors were determined with use of univariate and multivariate analyses, and both derivation and validation sets were used. A total of 1,745 patients developed nosocomial bloodstream infection. The 28-day crude mortality was 22%, and crude in-hospital mortality was 35%. Factors independently (all P < .05) associated with increased 28-day mortality rates were older age, longer length of hospital stay before bloodstream infection, and a diagnosis of cancer or disease of the digestive system. After adjustment for major confounders, Candida species were the only organisms independently influencing the outcome of nosocomial bloodstream infection (odds ratio [OR] for mortality = 1.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22-2.76; P = .0035). The two additional microbiological factors independently associated with increased mortality were pneumonia as a source of secondary infection (OR = 2.74; 95% CI, 1.87-4.00; P < .0001) and polymicrobial infection (OR = 1.68; 95% CI, 1.22-2.32; P = .0014). Our data suggest that microbiological factors independently affect the outcome of nosocomial bloodstream infectio

Work, Leisure-Time Physical Activity, and Risk of Preeclampsia and Gestational Hypertension

Few studies of preeclampsia have assessed physical activity level, yet recent evidence suggests that the pathologic mechanisms in preeclampsia are similar to those in cardiovascular disease, for which physical activity is shown to be protective. The authors assessed the independent and combined effects of work and regular leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) during early pregnancy on risk of de novo preeclampsia (n = 44) and gestational hypertension (n = 172) among women recruited from 13 obstetric practices in the New Haven, Connecticut, area between 1988 and 1991. Control subjects were normotensive throughout pregnancy (n = 2,422). Information on time at work spent sitting, standing, and walking and on LTPA before and during pregnancy was collected via face-to-face interviews. Logistic regression analyses suggested that women who engaged in any regular LTPA regardless of caloric expenditure (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.35, 1.22), were unemployed (aOR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.21, 2.00), or had nonsedentary jobs (aOR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.37, 1.36) were at decreased risk of preeclampsia. Analyses of gestational hypertension showed no indication of a protective effect of workplace activity, LTPA, or unemployment. Consistent with other studies, these data suggest that regular physical activity during pregnancy may reduce preeclampsia risk. employment; exercise; hypertension; motor activity; pre-eclampsia; pregnancy Abbreviations: aOR, adjusted odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; LTPA, leisure-time physical activity. Preeclampsia is a disease specific to human pregnancy, marked by hypertension and proteinuria. Despite decades of preventive efforts, preeclampsia remains a leading cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality worldwide (1). Research into its epidemiology and pathophysiology suggests that preeclampsia is a condition of heterogeneous causes characterized by a two-stage disease process (1). The first stage is punctuated by shallow, insufficient placentation, which is likely immune mediated (2), followed by systemic activation and disruption of the vascular endothelium with progression to the maternal syndrome (stage 2) (3). Oxidative stress is regarded as the mechanism most likely to cause endothelial dysfunction characteristic of preeclamptic pregnancies (4). Findings from the epidemiologic literature provide rational support for this mechanistic model. Factors consistent with an immune-based etiology include the higher risk after partner change among multiparous women with no prior preeclampsia (5-8), a short duration of sexual activity with the baby&apos;s father at the time of conception (9), and conception aided by donor insemination or embryos (10, 11), as well as a protective effect of abortion among nulliparous women who conceive again with the same father (12). Numerous lines of evidence implicate oxidative stress as a causal mechanism. Cardiovascular disease and preeclampsia share both a common disease pathway (i.e., endothelial activation) and many of the same constitutional risk factors, including hypertension, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, an

Preoperative statin treatment is associated with reduced postoperative mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing cardiac surgery: An 8-year retrospective cohort study

BackgroundCardiac surgical procedures can be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Recently, it has been recognized that statins might induce multiple biologic effects independent of lipid lowering that could potentially ameliorate adverse surgical outcomes. Accordingly, this study tested the central hypothesis that pretreatment with statins before cardiac surgery would reduce adverse postoperative surgical outcomes.MethodsDemographic and outcomes data were collected retrospectively for 3829 patients admitted for planned cardiac surgery between February 1994 and December 2002. Statin pretreatment occurred in 1044 patients who were comparable with non–statin-pretreated (n = 2785) patients with regard to sex, race, and age. Primary outcomes examined included postoperative mortality (30-day) and a composite morbidity variable.ResultsThe odds of experiencing 30-day mortality and morbidity were significantly less in the statin-pretreated group, with unadjusted odds ratios of 0.43 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.28-0.66) and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.61-0.86), respectively. Risk-adjusted odds ratios for mortality and morbidity were 0.55 (95% CI, 0.32-0.93) and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.62-0.94), respectively, by using a logistic regression model and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.27-0.94) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.55-0.92), respectively, in the propensity-matched model, demonstrating significant reductions in 30-day morbidity and mortality. In a subsample of patients undergoing valve-only surgery (n = 716), fewer valve-only patients treated with statins experienced mortality, although these results were not statistically significant (1.96% vs 7.5%).ConclusionsThese findings indicate that statin pretreatment before cardiac surgery confers a protective effect with respect to postoperative outcomes

A comparison of missing data methods for hypothesis tests of the treatment effect in substance abuse clinical trials: a Monte-Carlo simulation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Missing data due to attrition are rampant in substance abuse clinical trials. However, missing data are often ignored in the presentation of substance abuse clinical trials. This paper demonstrates missing data methods which may be used for hypothesis testing.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Methods involving stratifying and weighting individuals based on missing data pattern are shown to produce tests that are robust to missing data mechanisms in terms of Type I error and power. In this article, we describe several methods of combining data that may be used for testing hypotheses of the treatment effect. Furthermore, illustrations of each test's Type I error and power under different missing data percentages and mechanisms are quantified using a Monte-Carlo simulation study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Type I error rates were similar for each method, while powers depended on missing data assumptions. Specifically, power was greatest for the weighted, compared to un-weighted methods, especially for greater missing data percentages.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Results of this study as well as extant literature demonstrate the need for standards of design and analysis specific to substance abuse clinical trials. Given the known substantial attrition rates and concern for the missing data mechanism in substance abuse clinical trials, investigators need to incorporate missing data methods a priori. That is, missing data methods should be specified at the outset of the study and not after the data have been collected.</p

Effectiveness of computer-navigated minimally invasive total hip surgery compared to conventional total hip arthroplasty: design of a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Moderate to severe osteoarthrosis is the most common indication for Total Hip Arthroplasty (THA). Minimally Invasive Total Hip Surgery (MIS) and computer-navigated surgery were introduced several years ago. However, the literature lacks well-designed studies that provide evidence of superiority of computer-navigated MIS over a conventional THA technique. Hence, the purpose of this study is to compare (cost)effectiveness of computer-navigated MIS with a conventional technique for THA. It is our hypothesis that computer-navigated MIS will lead to a quicker recovery during the early postoperative period (3 months), and to an outcome at least as good 6 months postoperatively. We also hypothesize that computer-navigated MIS leads to fewer perioperative complications and better prosthesis positioning. Furthermore, cost advantages of computer-navigated MIS over conventional THA technique are expected. METHODS/DESIGN: A cluster randomized controlled trial will be executed. Patients between the ages of 18 and 75 admitted for primary cementless unilateral THA will be included. Patients will be stratified using the Charnley classification. They will be randomly allocated to have computer-navigated MIS or conventional THA technique. Measurements take place preoperatively, perioperatively, and 6 weeks and 3 and 6 months postoperatively. Degree of limping (gait analysis), self-reported functional status and health-related quality of life (questionnaires) will be assessed preoperatively as well as postoperatively. Perioperative complications will be registered. Radiographic evaluation of prosthesis positioning will take place 6 weeks postoperatively. An evaluation of costs within and outside the healthcare sector will focus on differences in costs between computer-navigated MIS and conventional THA technique. DISCUSSION: Based on studies performed so far, few objective data quantifying the risks and benefits of computer-navigated MIS are available. Therefore, this study has been designed to compare (cost) effectiveness of computer-navigated MIS with a conventional technique for THA. The results of this trial will be presented as soon as they become available

Minimally invasive and computer-navigated total hip arthroplasty: a qualitative and systematic review of the literature

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Both minimally invasive surgery (MIS) and computer-assisted surgery (CAS) for total hip arthroplasty (THA) have gained popularity in recent years. We conducted a qualitative and systematic review to assess the effectiveness of MIS, CAS and computer-assisted MIS for THA. METHODS: An extensive computerised literature search of PubMed, Medline, Embase and OVIDSP was conducted. Both randomised clinical trials and controlled clinical trials on the effectiveness of MIS, CAS and computer-assisted MIS for THA were included. Methodological quality was independently assessed by two reviewers. Effect estimates were calculated and a best-evidence synthesis was performed. RESULTS: Four high-quality and 14 medium-quality studies with MIS THA as study contrast, and three high-quality and four medium-quality studies with CAS THA as study contrast were included. No studies with computer-assisted MIS for THA as study contrast were identified. Strong evidence was found for a decrease in operative time and intraoperative blood loss for MIS THA, with no difference in complication rates and risk for acetabular outliers. Strong evidence exists that there is no difference in physical functioning, measured either by questionnaires or by gait analysis. Moderate evidence was found for a shorter length of hospital stay after MIS THA. Conflicting evidence was found for a positive effect of MIS THA on pain in the early postoperative period, but that effect diminished after three months postoperatively. Strong evidence was found for an increase in operative time for CAS THA, and limited evidence was found for a decrease in intraoperative blood loss. Furthermore, strong evidence was found for no difference in complication rates, as well as for a significantly lower risk for acetabular outliers. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that MIS THA is a safe surgical procedure, without increases in operative time, blood loss, operative complication rates and component malposition rates. However, the beneficial effect of MIS THA on functional recovery has to be proven. The results also indicate that CAS THA, though resulting in an increase in operative time, may have a positive effect on operative blood loss and operative complication rates. More importantly, the use of CAS results in better positioning of acetabular component of the prosthesis

A Monte Carlo Study To Evaluate The Performance Of Selected Tests Of Homogeneity In Sparse Contingency Tables

We address the problem of tests of homogeneity in two‐way contingency tables in case‐control studies when the case category is subdivided into k subcategories. In this situation, we have two cells with large frequencies and 2 X k cells with frequencies that become small as k increases. We propose two ad hoc statistics in which a statistic for the sparse cells is combined with a statistic for the cells with large frequencies. We will study these tests along with the Pearson test (using a chi‐square approximation) in a Monte Carlo simulation study. Two sets of null hypothesis models and two sets of alternative hypothesis models are considered. The best test for the models considered is the usual Pearson test (using an approximate chi‐square distribution) although the ad hoc models are more powerful under one alternative model considered