Potential Impacts of Free Trade Areas and Common Currency on Sustainable Agricultural Export in Africa

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Can complexity help us better understand risk?

Undesirable rare and new events are hard to predict and their costs are hard to quantify. The science of complex systems gives deep insights into why some events are impossible to predict in the long term. Computer simulation is evolving as a way to understand the behaviour of complex systems and can be used to investigate distributions of rare events and risks. Simulation has its own risks; for example, the “ can you trust it? ” problem means that simulations can be misleading. Many complex systems have multi-dimensional multi-level structure, with Type-1 dynamics represented by changes in numerical functions, and Type-2 dynamics, represented by changes in relational structure. This may help to analyse and manage risk. The science of complex systems will increasingly inform those who design, manage, plan, and control complex systems, and it undoubtedly can contribute to the science of risk

China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) to developing countries: the case of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

China's outward FDI reached a peak in 2016, making it as important a foreign investor as Germany, France and the United Kingdom. In this paper, we investigate the main motivations behind Chinese investments in developing countries, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in particular. Although the size of Chinese investment in CEE is small, the region is strategic for China as it is a gateway into Western Europe under the Belt Road Initiative. As new or future members of the EU, the CEE countries also provide access to the single market. We find that the motivations to invest in developing countries differ according to regions. Based on outward FDI data provided by the Chinese authorities, the number of Chinese FDI greenfield and M&A projects fromFinancial TimesandZephyrrespectively, as well as face-to-face interviews with companies with investments in CEE, we find that for the case of CEE, domestic markets, access to the larger EU market, strategic assets like technology and prior relationship with the CEE are main reasons for investing