Regional development of employment in eastern Germany. An analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques

This paper examines the development of regional employment in eastern Germany. An approach introduced by Patterson and suggested by Möller/Tassinopoulos is extended for the analyses. This approach uses a generalisation of an econometric analogue of the common shift-share method, which is suggested here as a new "workhorse" for regional analyses. The results obtained with this "shift-share-regression" and with very differentiated data from the employment statistics of eastern Germany show that processes of deconcentration play a role in explaining regional disparities, since inverse localisation and positive urbanisation effects are visible. Such processes can be understood with approaches of "New Economic Geography" (based on Krugman et al.), whereas the general significance of industry-specific effects, which is also becoming clear, can be explained using approaches of structural change, following amongst others Appelbaum & Schettkat. In addition, positive impulses of the qualification structure on regional development are detectable, which can be understood by endogenous growth theory.

Local Employment Growth in West Germany - A Dynamic Panel Approach

In times of high and persistent unemployment, it has become one of the most important policy tasks in many developed countries to trigger a process of sustained employment growth. An illustrative example is the policy of regional “growth-poles”, which assumes that a local concentration of a specific industry in a limited geographical area will lead to a growth take-off. The theoretical rationale for this type of regional policy can be knowledge spillovers, whose importance for the economic (employment) growth has been emphasised in the endogenous growth literature. Yet, there is a considerable debate about the precise nature of knowledge spillovers. Do the externalities accrue between sectors (Jacobs-externalities), or are they rather intra-sectoral (MAR-externalities)? Apart from the question what local economic structure is conducive for employment growth, an equally important issue concerns the timing of the impact of externalities. Is it the current economic structure that matters for employment growth, or rather the historical economic structure? If the former turns out to be the case, regional policies might become effective immediately. In the latter case the impact of policy might be slower but also longer lasting. In this paper we study the dynamics of local employment growth in West Germany from 1980 to 2001. Using dynamic panel techniques, we analyse the nature and the timing of Jacobs- and Marshall-Arrow-Romer externalities, as well as the impact of general human capital spillovers. Jacobs-externalities are stronger in manufacturing than in services, the opposite is true for MAR-externalities. General human capital spillovers are only found in manufacturing. The influence of all forms of externalities rapidly decays in time, suggesting that they are rather static than dynamic. Additionally, we look at the impact of competition, general agglomeration effects and overly high regional wages on local employment growth.

Cultural Diversity and Local Labour Markets

During the last decade there have been marked changes in the composition of the non-native workforce in the German labour market. In particular there has been a notable increase in the diversity of nationalities of which the foreign workforce is composed. In this paper we investigate the effects of this diversity for native employees. Our analysis is conducted at the local level and uses a panel of 326 Western German regions over the time period 1995-2006. When considering high-skilled foreign workers, we find that both the size of this group and the diversification into different nationalities raise local wages and employment for native employees. For low-skilled foreign workers we find negative size effects. However, these negative effects can be partly offset if the group of low-skilled foreigners is culturally diversified. Our results imply that diversity raises productivity at the local level, but that it is important to distinguish the skill composition of the foreign workforce. These findings remain robust in a variety of robustness checks that take into account omitted variable bias, self-selection of foreigners into particular regions, and spatial autocorrelation.regional labour markets, cultural diversity, immigration, spatial equilibrium

Phillips Curve or wage curve? : evidence from West Germany: 1980-2004

"This paper reconsiders the West German wage curve using the employment statistics of the Federal Employment Services of Germany (Bundesanstalt für Arbeit) over the period 1980-2004. This updates the earlier study by Baltagi and Blien (1998) by 15 years for a more disaggregated 326 regions of West Germany. It is based on a random sample of 417,426 individuals drawn from the population of employees whose establishments are required to report to the social insurance system. We find that the wage equation is highly autoregressive but far from unit root. This means that this wage equation is not a pure Phillips curve, nor a static wage curve, and one should account for wage dynamics. This in turn leads to a smaller but significant unemployment elasticity of -0.02 up to -0.03 rather than the -0.07 reported in the static wage curve results reported by Baltagi and Blien (1998)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Arbeitslosenquote, Lohnhöhe, regionaler Arbeitsmarkt, Lohnkurve, IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe, Phillipskurve, Westdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

A spatial panel approach to the east German wage curve

This study presents results about wage effects of unemployment in eastern Germany. The standard approach to analyse the wage curve takes no account of the spatial relationship among regions. Ignoring this relationship may seriously bias the results. To investigate this, the East German wage curve is estimated including spatial effects using panel data classified into 114 administrative districts over the period 1993-1999. It extends the analysis of Baltagi, Blien and Wolf (2000) in which spatial effects were not taken into account. To control for the possible endogeneity of the unemployment rate, one of the explanatory variables, instrumental variable methods should be used. To control for spatial dependence, this paper adopts the use of matrix exponentials for spatially transforming the error terms. This transformation has the advantage that the Jacobian term equals zero. Two important empirical results appear. If spatial effects are not taken into account, the unemployment elasticity in Eastern Germany is larger than in Western countries. If spatial effects are added, the unemployment elasticity significantly reduces.

Expensive and low-price places to live : regional price levels and the agglomeration wage differential in Western Germany

"Recently, there has been a renewed interest in the agglomeration wage differential. One of the open research question is whether wage differences between large cities and the rural country are due to unobserved differences in regional price levels. In this paper information on regional price levels for western German regions is used to assess this wage differential. Since for many regions price information is not available. Multiple Imputation is used to generate completed data sets. It can be shown that this strategy is more reliable than simply using predictions of regression analysis. The results obtained show that the agglomeration wage differential in Germany is smaller than in the US, and that only a minor part of it can be explained by differences in prices." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Lohnunterschied, regionale Disparität, Preisniveau, Westdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Early Archean spherule beds of possible impact origin from Barberton, South Africa: A detailed mineralogical and geochemical study

The Barberton Greenstone belt is a 3.5- to 3.2-Ga-old formation situated in the Swaziland Supergroup near Barberton, northeast Transvaal, South Africa. The belt includes a lower, predominantly volcanic sequence, and an upper sedimentary sequence (e.g., the Fig Tree Group). Within this upper sedimentary sequence, Lowe and Byerly identified a series of different beds of spherules with diameters of around 0.5-2 mm. Lowe and Byerly and Lowe et al. have interpreted these spherules to be condensates of rock vapor produced by large meteorite impacts in the early Archean. We have collected a series of samples from drill cores from the Mt. Morgan and Princeton sections near Barberton, as well as samples taken from underground exposures in the Sheba and Agnes mines. These samples seem much better preserved than the surface samples described by Lowe and Byerly and Lowe et al. Over a scale of just under 30 cm, several well-defined spherule beds are visible, interspaced with shales and/or layers of banded iron formation. Some spherules have clearly been deposited on top of a sedimentary unit because the shale layer shows indentions from the overlying spherules. Although fresher than the surface samples (e.g., spherule bed S-2), there is abundant evidence for extensive alteration, presumably by hydrothermal processes. In some sections of the cores sulfide mineralization is common. For our mineralogical and petrographical studies we have prepared detailed thin sections of all core and underground samples (as well as some surface samples from the S-2 layer for comparison). For geochemical work, layers with thicknesses in the order of 1-5 mm were separated from selected core and underground samples. The chemical analyses are being performed using neutron activation analysis in order to obtain data for about 35 trace elements in each sample. Major elements are being determined by XRF and plasma spectrometry. To clarify the history of the sulfide mineralization, sulfur isotopic compositions are being determined

On regional innovator networks as hubs for innovative ventures

At least since Schumpeter published his work "The Theory of Economic Development" (1912), a wide body of literature has focused on the evolutionary process behind firm growth and survival. Recently a growing interest is devoted to the variable "location" as a critical factor, shaping firm performance. However, less attention has been paid to the region-specific characteristics that may play a relevant role in determining the growth and survival of a firm. Some works see university-based knowledge spillovers as one such factor (Audretsch and Lehmann 2005, Cassia et al. 2009). This paper extends this approach to the regional innovator network, promoting region-specific knowledge spillovers. Two data bases are applied. First, patent data delivers the innovator network for Thuringia. The second data base contains firm specific information on innovative ventures founded in Thuringia in the period between 1990 and 2006. The results show that the firm´s individual probability to be innovative and connected to the innovator network positively influences the chances of this firm to survive