Causality in Crude Oil Prices

The world market of crude oil has three well established benchmarks used for pricing of other crudes: West Texas Intermediate, Europe Brent and Dubai Fateh. The relevance of these are however declining, as the output of the benchmarks is decreasing, and as an increasing share of world crude produced is of worse quality than the benchmarks (pointed out by e.g. Montepeque, 2005). Particularly the segment of medium density, sour crudes is lacking a reliable benchmark. We apply Granger causality tests to study the price dependencies of 32 crude oils empirically. The aim is to establish what crudes are setting the prices and what crudes are just follow the general market trend. The investigation is performed globally as well as for different quality segments, geographical segments and the segments of OPEC and non-OPEC crudes. The results indicate that crude oil price analysts should follow at least four different crudes that are if not benchmarks, at least good price indicators. While the well-established benchmarks WTI and Brent still lead the market, they are not the only crude prices worth paying attention to. In particular, Russian Urals drives global prices in a significant way, and Iran Seri Kerir is a significant price setter within OPEC. Dubai Fateh does not display any significant influence as a price setter. The lack of a reliable benchmark for medium density, sour crudes is thereby confirmed.Granger causality; crude oil; benchmark; West Texas Intermediate; Europe Brent; Dubai Fateh; Russian Urals; Iran Seri Kerir; price dynamics

Non-linearities in mark-up on costs

Abstract This study employs an error-correction SETAR model to analyse the non-linearities in the behaviour of the mark-up on costs charged by the filling stations in the New York metropolitan area. While usual price transmission gained significant attention in the literature, the mark-up portion of the price has not been analysed to date. The results indicate that the adjustment to mark-ups to their long run values is non-linear, but the speeds with they adjust to their long-run values are equal across regimes for two out of three series analysed. For one of the series the adjustment is beneficial for the end consumers such that prices fall faster than they rise. The findings are somewhat surprising, indicating that there is no need for government intervention in the NY petroleum market.Rockets and feathers; asymmetry; petroleum; SETAR

Petrol and Crude Oil Prices: Asymmetric Price Transmission

This paper examines the relationship between crude oil prices, the dollar-pound exchange rate and petrol prices in the UK over the period 1982-2001. Quantitative methods were used to examine the existence of the long-run equilibrium and test for the presence of asymmetric patterns in the short-run responses to upstream price changes. Also the degree of asymmetry in the adjustment towards long-run equilibrium was analysed. Results confirm that short-run response is greater for increases in upstream prices and that the long-run equilibrium is reached faster after increase in upstream prices. Thus the opinion held by drivers in the UK is confirmed. Detailed analysis confirmed close relationship between the asymmetry and the size and change in the market margin

Petrol and Crude Oil Prices: Asymmetric Price Transmission

This paper examines the relationship between crude oil prices, the dollar-pound exchange rate and petrol prices in the UK over the period 1982-2001. Quantitative methods were used to examine the existence of the long-run equilibrium and test for the presence of asymmetric patterns in the short-run responses to upstream price changes. Also the degree of asymmetry in the adjustment towards long-run equilibrium was analysed. Results confirm that short-run response is greater for increases in upstream prices and that the long-run equilibrium is reached faster after increase in upstream prices. Thus the opinion held by drivers in the UK is confirmed. Detailed analysis confirmed close relationship between the asymmetry and the size and change in the market margin

Petrol and Crude Oil Prices: Asymmetric Price Transmission

This paper examines the relationship between crude oil prices, the dollar-pound exchange rate and petrol prices in the UK over the period 1982-2001. Quantitative methods were used to examine the existence of the long-run equilibrium and test for the presence of asymmetric patterns in the short-run responses to upstream price changes. Also the degree of asymmetry in the adjustment towards long-run equilibrium was analysed. Results confirm that short-run response is greater for increases in upstream prices and that the long-run equilibrium is reached faster after increase in upstream prices. Thus the opinion held by drivers in the UK is confirmed. Detailed analysis confirmed close relationship between the asymmetry and the size and change in the market margin.Asymmetric Price Transmission; rockets and feathers; nonlinearity; price tranmission

Causality in Crude Oil Prices

The world market of crude oil has three well established benchmarks used for pricing of other crudes: West Texas Intermediate, Europe Brent and Dubai Fateh. The relevance of these are however declining, as the output of the benchmarks is decreasing, and as an increasing share of world crude produced is of worse quality than the benchmarks (pointed out by e.g. Montepeque, 2005). Particularly the segment of medium density, sour crudes is lacking a reliable benchmark. We apply Granger causality tests to study the price dependencies of 32 crude oils empirically. The aim is to establish what crudes are setting the prices and what crudes are just follow the general market trend. The investigation is performed globally as well as for different quality segments, geographical segments and the segments of OPEC and non-OPEC crudes. The results indicate that crude oil price analysts should follow at least four different crudes that are if not benchmarks, at least good price indicators. While the well-established benchmarks WTI and Brent still lead the market, they are not the only crude prices worth paying attention to. In particular, Russian Urals drives global prices in a significant way, and Iran Seri Kerir is a significant price setter within OPEC. Dubai Fateh does not display any significant influence as a price setter. The lack of a reliable benchmark for medium density, sour crudes is thereby confirmed