Uncertainty, Innovation, and Infrastructure Credits: Outlook for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Through 2030

California’s low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) specifies that the state’s transportation fuel supply achieve a 20% reduction in carbon intensity (CI) below 2011 levels by 2030. Reaching the standard will require substantive changes in the fuel mix, but the specifics and the cost of these changes are uncertain. We assess if and how California is likely to achieve the standard, and the likely impact of infrastructure credits on this compliance outlook. We begin by projecting a distribution of fuel and vehicle miles demand under business-as-usual economic and policy variation and transform those projections into a distribution of LCFS net deficits for the entire period from 2019 through 2030. We then construct a variety of scenarios characterizing LCFS credit supply that consider different assumptions regarding input markets, technological adoption over the compliance period, and the efficacy of complementary policies. In our baseline scenario for credit generation, LCFS compliance would require that between 60% and 80% of the diesel pool be produced from biomass. Our baseline projections have the number of electric vehicles reaching 1.3 million by 2030, but if the number of electric vehicles reaches Governor Jerry Brown’s goal of 5 million by 2030, then LCFS compliance would require substantially less biomass-based diesel. Outside of rapid zero emission vehicle penetration, compliance in 2030 with the $200 credit price may be much more difficult. New mechanisms to allow firms to generate credits by building electric vehicle charging stations or hydrogen fueling stations have minor implications for overall compliance because the total quantity of infrastructure credits is restricted to be relatively small

Agricultural Change and Population Growth: District-Level Evidence From India

Green Revolution technologies were developed and promoted in the 1960s in response to alarm about impending famine in Asia. By boosting food supplies and fostering development, the technologies were expected to create "breathing space" for completing demographic transitions there. This paper uses District-level data from rural India on agricultural transformation (from 1961 to 1981) and on changes in human fertility (from 1971 to 1981) to examine whether they did so. In a reduced form model, female literacy and marriage rates emerged as strong fertility change determinants; effects varied by age cohort. Growth in real wages in rural areas, in part brought about by HYV technologies, accelerated fertility declines. With real wage growth effects of Green Revolution technologies controlled for, faster diffusion of wheat and rice HYV each led to faster fertility declines; greater diffusion of bajra (millet) HYV was associated with smaller fertility declines. Policy action to enhance fertility declines may be worthwhile regardless of agricultural sector goals, but policymakers should be aware of direct and indirect effects of agricultural intensification policies on human fertility.International Development, Q16, J1, Q18, D1, O3,

Small-scale farms in the western Brazilian Amazon: can they benefit from carbon trade?

Recently scientists have started to examine how land-uses and land-use technologies can help mitigate carbon emissions. The half million small-scale farmers inhabiting the Amazon frontier sequester large stocks of carbon in their forests and other land uses that they might be persuaded to maintain or even increase through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. On average, small-scale farmers in the Pedro Peixoto settlement project of Acre (Western Brazilian Amazon), had a stock of 10,067 tons of above- and below-ground carbon on their farms in 1994, 88 percent of which was stored in their forest reserves. The income and carbon mitigation effects of three types of carbon payments are analyzed in this paper: (1) above- or total-carbon stock payments paid for carbon retained in the forest or stored in all land-uses, (2) above- or total-carbon flow payments paid for carbon stored in all land-uses, and (3) above- or total-carbon net stock payments paid for carbon stored in all land-uses. The main conclusions are that carbon payments can be effective in preserving forest and carbon, but should be based on carbon stocks or net carbon stock rather than carbon flows. Payments tied to forest carbon or carbon in all land-uses provide inexpensive carbon offset potential, and payments based on total instead of above-ground carbon only slightly dilute the forest preservation effect of carbon payments. One-time carbon payments as low as R$15/t of carbon stock would preserve half of the existing forest carbon on these farms. Carbon flow payments, on the other hand, do not provide an adequate economic incentive to slow deforestation because forests are more or less in equilibrium and thus do not sequester additional carbon. If the Kyoto Protocol were amended to allow for conservation of forest carbon, a few potential CDMs could provide inexpensive carbon offsets, alleviate poverty, and preserve biodiversity. Sustainable forest management, for instance, increases both farm income and carbon and forest preservation and could provide inexpensive carbon offsets. Other projects could also provide inexpensive carbon offsets and preserve biodiversity, but would require additional income and technology transfers to compensate farmers for their lost incomes.Land use., Brazil Economic policy.,

The impact of technical change in agriculture on human fertility: district-level evidence from India

Green Revolution technologies were developed and promoted to boost food supplies and foster development, both of which were expected to create "breathing space" for achieving demographic transitions in developing countries through lowered human fertility. Little comprehensive research, however, has been done on the effects of those technologies themselves on human fertility leaving unanswered the question of whether particular types of agricultural technologies were actually increasing, or decreasing, this demographic "breathing space." This paper uses District-level data from rural India on agricultural change (from 1961 to 1981) and changes in human fertility (from 1971 to 1981) to assess the impact of the former on the latter, with particular emphasis on high yielding (HYV) Green Revolution technologies. Modifying a conceptual framework derived from theory on the determinants of fertility, and estimating a reduced form model that explicitly accounts for endogeneity of real wage growth, we find that, while socio-cultural and demographic factors were the strongest determinants of fertility change: a) Green Revolution and related technologies did have an impact on fertility change; b) that the magnitude and direction of this impact was technology specific; and c) that the impact was only partially due to the effect of the new technologies on changes in real wage growth.Green Revolution India., Green technology., Fertility, Human India., Agricultural innovations.,

Status Review of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard

Adopted and implemented in 2010, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) was the world’s first policy to address the carbon pollution caused by transportation fuels. A model for similar policies in British Columbia and other U.S. states, the LCFS is designed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, stimulate technology improvements, and help California achieve its climate change goals. The LCFS contributes to California’s overall GHG emission reduction goals under the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32). It is a performancebased regulation that requires regulated parties (fuel producers and importers to California) to reduce the rated carbon intensity (CI) of the state’s transport fuel mix by at least 10 percent by 2020. It sets declining annual targets, starting with a 0.25 percent reduction in 2011 and reaching a 10 percent reduction by 2020. This report is part of a series providing status reviews on California’s LCFS. The periodic status review series by ITS-Davis provides updates on LCFS compliance and markets, and addresses selected special topics. This fourth report addresses the following: 1. Credits and deficits 2. Carbon intensity of fuels 3. Credit trading and credit prices 4. The Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2), LCFS, and U.S. biofuel imports 5. Special topics: Carbon prices and interactions with a cap-and-trade, key proposed amendments in re-adoption, Pacific Coast Climate and Energy Action Pla

Biofuel Tracker: Capacity for Low Carbon Fuel Policies – Assessment through 2018

This Biofuel Tracker: Capacity for Low Carbon Fuel Policies – Assessment through 2018 report follows the discontinued annual Advanced Biofuel Market Report produced by E2. This new report updates information on transportation biofuel production capacity since E2’s final publication in 2015. The report provides information on market plans for near‐term production capacity through 2018. It is neither a prediction nor a forecast of either capacity or actual production levels. Rather, it is one indication of potential North American production of fuel volume that meets the California carbon intensity rating cut‐off in the next couple of years, given favorable market conditions and the current policy environment. For commercially emerging technologies and fuels, production capacity ranges are assessed based on company and media reports, and are filtered through a subjective evaluation of the likelihood of announced capacity coming online in the 2018 time frame. The low end of the production capacity range reflects capacity in which the authors have higher confidence: existing capacity plus companies that have shown signs of plans to move forward on the ground. The high end of the production capacity range includes capacity from companies that is assessed as less likely:  from companies that still face some significant hurdle (e.g., financing) to meet targets or have not pinned down target dates due to unfavorable market conditions. Well‐established technologies and fuels like biodiesel are treated separately. In the case of biodiesel, production is determined by policy more than it is constrained by capacity. Therefore, the focus of this report is on describing the policies and other industry trends. The report includes information on private and public financing levels for biofuels, drawing, like the E2 series, on Clean Tech Group’s industry financial data plus government data, through 2015

Status Review of California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard

California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) aims to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) by creating financial incentives for innovation and deployment of low carbon fuels. From 2011 through Q4 2012, there was a net excess of 1.285 million credits (metric tons of CO2e); if all available for use, the excess credits represent about half of what is needed to cover the 2013 obligation. During the period, the average fuel carbon intensity (CI) of gasoline and diesel substitutes declined. There was a rise in credit trading and credit trade prices. Feedstock-specific issues are examined

2020 Global food outlook

This report shows just how, and how much, certain policy decisions and social changes will affect the world's future food security. It projects the likely food situation in 2020 if the world continues on more or less its present course, and it then shows how alternative choices could produce a different future. Even rather small changes in agricultural and development policies and investments, it turns out, can have wide-reaching effects on the number of poor and undernourished people around the world. A world of less poverty, greater food security, and a healthier environment is possible, but it will not come about without explicit policy steps in that direction. 2020 Global Food Outlook is the latest in a series of world food projections based on a model developed at IFPRI beginning in 1992.The model has been updated and expanded periodically since then as a way of painting an ever-clearer picture of the global food situation in 2020.

Status Review of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (Revised Version)

This status review of California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) summarizes actions regarding the standard. Greenhouse gases are subject to regulation under the LCFS. Statistics are provided on credits and the price of credits; average fuel carbon intensity; ethanol production and consumption; the number and vehicle miles of travel of plug-in electric vehicles; and, gasoline prices. The California Air Resources Board will vote on re-adoption of the LCFS in July 2015 and major court decisions on LCFS, some leading to the need for the re-adoption vote, are summarized

Three Routes Forward For Biofuels: Incremental, Transitional, and Leapfrog

Besides the authors of this paper, many other people from the Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (NextSTEPS) research consortium assisted in the underlying analysis and internal review. This includes, but is not limited to, Joan Ogden, Steve Kaffka, Rich Plevin, Mark Delucchi, Sonia Yeh, Colin Murphy, and Paul Gruber. The NextSTEPS biofuels team wishes to thank representatives of the California Energy Commission (CEC) and the California Air Resources Board (ARB) for their valuable comments during a recent presentation of this work. The team also wishes to thank the NextSTEPS consortium members for their intellectual contributions and support of this researc