Rules of Thumb in Life-Cycle Saving Decisions

We analyse life-cycle saving decisions when households use simple heuristics, or rules of thumb, rather than solve the underlying intertemporal optimization problem. We simulate life-cycle saving decisions using three simple rules and compute utility losses relative to the solution of the optimization problem. Our simulations suggest that utility losses induced by following simple decision rules are relatively low. Moreover, the two main saving motives re ected by the canonical life-cycle model { long-run consumption smoothing and short-run insurance against income shocks { can be addressed quite well by saving rules that do not require computationally demanding tasks such as backward induction.saving; life-cycle models; bounded rationality; rules of thumb

Population Aging, Savings Behavior and Capital Markets

Population aging is just beginning to hit the industrialized countries in full force, and it will have a tremendous impact on capital markets. In this paper, we argue that the capital market effects of population aging are particularly strong in continental European economies such as Germany, France, and Italy, with their large and ailing pay-as-you-go public pension systems, relatively thin capital markets, and poor capital performance. The younger generations in these countries are quite aware of the need to provide for more retirement income through own private saving, and these effects will be accentuated by fundamental pension reforms that aim at more pre-funding. Population aging changes households' savings behavior and portfolio composition, and much more assets will be invested on the stock market. Capital markets will grow in size, and active institutional investors such as pension funds will become more important in continental European countries. These changes are likely to have beneficial side effects in terms of improved capital efficiency, total factor productivity, and growth. Looking at the effects of population aging on savings behavior and capital markets therefore adds a new dimension to the continuing debate about advantages and disadvantages of pay-as-you-go and fully funded pension systems.

Product market competition, corporate governance and firm performance: an empirical analysis for Germany

Productivity growth has been slow in many continental European countries over the last few decades, especially in comparison with the United States. It has been argued that lack of product market competition and poor corporate governance are two of the main reasons for this phenomenon. However, predictions from theoretical models are far from unambiguous, and empirical evidence is sparse, in particular at the level of individual firms. In this paper, we aim to close this gap with an econometric analysis of firm performance in Germany. Based on a unique panel data set with detailed information on almost 400 manufacturing firms over the 1986-94 period, we find that firms operating in industries which are characterized by more intensive product market competition experience higher rates of productivity growth. We also find weak evidence for the notion that in Germany?s bank-based system of internal control, ownership concentration is harmful for productivity growth. --competition,corporate governance,productivity

Price variability and price dispersion in a stable monetary environment: Evidence from German retail markets

We investigate the relationship between inflation and price variation using highly disaggregated, weekly price data for consumption goods recorded in Germany during 1995, a low inflation period. We find a significant positive correlation between the rates of price change and price dispersion, both at the level of individual products and product groups. However, we find no correlation between the rates of price change and price variability. Together with results from similar studies, Tommasi (1993) and Parsley (1996), a remarkable pattern emerges: When aggregate nominal shocks are small, only price dispersion is correlated with price changes. As the rate of inflation rises, both variability and dispersion become affected. During hyperinflation, systematic movements of price dispersion seem to disappear. We conclude that price dispersion is best explained by microeconomic frictions in price adjustment, whereas price variability appears to be related to costly price search and information problems

Rules of Thumb in Life-Cycle Savings Models

We analyze life-cycle savings decisions when households use simple heuristics, or rules of thumb, rather than solve the underlying intertemporal optimization problem. The decision rules we explore are a simple Keynesian rule where consumption follows income; a simple consumption rule where only a fraction of positive income shocks is saved; a rule that corresponds to the permanent income hypothesis; and two rules that have been found in experimental studies. Using these rules, we simulate life-cycle savings decisions numerically and compute the utility losses relative to the backwards solution of the intertemporal optimization problem. Our central finding is that the utility losses induced by rule-of-thumb behavior are relatively low. We conclude that behaving optimally, in the sense of solving an intertemporal optimization model, is not only costly, it is also not much better than using simpler heuristics which do not require backward induction. Our results might also explain why optimization models typically fit the main features of empirical data quite well although optimizing behavior itself is frequently rejected.

Interviewer effects and the measurement of financial literacy

In this paper we ask whether interviewers influence the answers to a standard set of survey questions on financial literacy. We study data from Germany's wealth survey, Panel on Household Finances (PHF). We have access to extensive paradata, including interviewer identifiers, background characteristics of interviewers, and measures of interviewer activity through the survey. We find that interviewer effects explain a significant fraction of the variance of the financial literacy score, and inter-interviewer correlations are notably larger for the financial literacy score than for other survey variables. We explore how accounting for interviewer effects can improve estimates of the effects of financial literacy on financial behaviours and outcomes

On the Origins of Dishonesty: From Parents to Children

Acts of dishonesty permeate life. Understanding their origins, and what mechanisms help to attenuate such acts is an underexplored area of research. This study takes an economics approach to explore the propensity of individuals to act dishonestly across different economic environments. We begin by developing a simple model that highlights the channels through which one can increase or decrease dishonest acts. We lend empirical insights into this model by using an experiment that includes both parents and their young children as subjects. We find that the highest level of dishonesty occurs in settings where the parent acts alone and the dishonest act benefits the child rather than the parent. In this spirit, there is also an interesting effect of children on parents' behavior: in the child's presence, parents act more honestly, but there are gender differences. Parents act more dishonestly in front of sons than daughters. This finding has the potential of shedding light on the origins of the widely documented gender differences in cheating behavior observed among adults

Does survey recall error explain the Deaton–Paxson puzzle?

Using recall and diary food expenditure data from Canada, we compare estimates of the household size elasticity of per capita food expenditure. In contrast to Gibson (2002), we find negative elasticities in both recall and diary data. This in turn means we find evidence of the “Deaton–Paxson puzzle” in both diary and recall data. Recall error cannot be the sole explanation of the puzzle

Survey Evidence on Conditional Norm Enforcement

We discuss survey evidence on individuals' willingness to sanction norm violations - such as evading taxes, drunk driving, fare dodging, or skiving o work - by expressing disapproval or social exclusion. Our data suggest that people condition their sanctioning behavior on their belief about the frequency of norm violations. The more commonly a norm violation is believed to occur, the lower the individuals' inclination to punish it. Based on an instrumental variable approach, we demonstrate that this pattern reflects a causal relationship